96W TCFA - 颱風討論

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WTPN21 PGTW 281100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8N 140.6E TO 16.5N 132.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.8N 139.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.6N,
140.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 139.7E APPROXIMATELY 305NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER THAT HAS STARTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING CONTINUES TO REMAIN FRAGMENTED. A 280831Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING THAT
HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND IMPROVED DIFFLUENT WESTERLY AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
(GREATER THAN 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 TO HOURS AS IT TRACKS
GENERALLY WEST AND CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 291100Z.//
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