98W 99W TCFA - 颱風討論

98W
WTPN22 PGTW 030530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.8N 133.7E TO 9.0N 128.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.1N 133.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 95 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AND MORE ORGANIZED FORMATIVE
BAND ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR
(VWS) AND GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN
THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY WARM (28 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040530Z.
//
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99W
WTPN23 PGTW 030530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.1N 159.0E TO 7.3N 152.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030430Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.1N 158.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.0N
159.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 158.6E, APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING FORMATIVE BANDS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATED 20-25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC AND
WEAKER WINDS NEAR THE CORE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH A STRONG
EQUATORWARD CHANNEL. SSTS IN THE AREA ARE PERENNIALLY WARM (28 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
040430Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 8.1N 133.1E
//
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有沒有NRL一修好後老J就變得比小J還積極的八卦？

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