98w TCFA - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 072230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
205 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.3N 129.0E TO 20.9N 132.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC DATA AT
071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
130.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 130.2E, APPROXIMATELY 585 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE LLCC. A NEARBY 071800Z SHIP
OBSERVATION REPORTED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB WITH 21
KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A 071631Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT
THE SYSTEM IS IN A REGION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(10-20 KNOTS), BUT IS OFFSET BY STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. DYNAMIC
MODELS SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC POSITION AND INDICATE SLOW
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH OF 20N (AFTER TAU 24) AND
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE FURTHER
INDICATES UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHWARD TRACK AS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW A MODERATE SPREAD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND DECREASING
PRESSURE TREND IN THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082230Z.
//
NNNN

2013的台風旺季要開張了嗎?
週圍的季風雲團也開始蠢蠢欲動了...

--