Carbon scheme changes cost $36b - 生態環境討論

※ [本文轉錄自 IA 看板]

作者: balanceCIH (revenge) 看板: IA
標題: [新聞] Carbon scheme changes cost $36b
時間: Thu Nov 19 17:33:41 2009

The Canberra Times- Carbon scheme changes cost $36b 2009.11.19
DANIELLE CRONIN AND JAMES MASSOLA

Australia's emissions trading scheme will be more than $36billion in the red
by 2020 and generate up to 30,000 fewer jobs in the short term if the
Opposition's amendments are accepted.

The Climate Institute will issue these predictions today as the Federal
Government and Opposition inch closer to a deal, according to Coalition
sources.

They predict the Government will give enough ground to secure Opposition
support for the scheme, centrepiece of the plan to tackle climate change.

But Climate Institute chief executive John Connor warns the Opposition's
proposals ''carry tens of billions of dollars of extra fiscal and political
risk''.

''Giving even more handouts or exemptions to the big polluters risks future
budgets, may undermine global action to tackle climate change and may have
perverse short-term impacts on jobs growth,'' Mr Connor said.

The institute assesses the impacts based on modelling conducted by the Centre
for Policy Studies at Monash University and McLennan Magasanik Associates.

The Government and Opposition have used this model in recent assessments of
the economic impact of climate change policy.

The institute examines the impact of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme
without and with amendments put forward by the Opposition.

The major parties have agreed to permanently exclude agriculture, which will
see ''an additional emissions reduction bill for government and business in
the order of $7billion in 2020''.

Under both scenarios, Australia's trillion-dollar economy grows to $1.2
trillion by 2020 and about 800,000 new jobs will be created across the
economy over the same period.

But the Opposition's amend-ments will have an impact on employment in the
short term, with the institute forecasting between 10,000 and 30,000 fewer
jobs will be created annually between now and 2015.There is little difference
by 2020.

Domestic emissions peak and begin to decline from 2011 under both scenarios.

But the Opposition's proposals will result in a far smaller change in
domestic emissions, requiring 44per cent of the target to be met with
international permits worth an extra $7.1 billion to 2020.

It is only 12 per cent under the Government's scheme.

''The Opposition's proposal, to provide much larger handouts to major
emitting industries and exclude agriculture from the scheme, result in a
deficit of over $36 billion to 2020,'' the institute said.

''The Government scenario generates a small surplus by 2020, although this
assumes emission reduction policies for agriculture.''

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