130KTS! JTWC#15 - 颱風討論

※ 引述《navarra (Ubiquitous RomanticismＩ》之銘言：
: ※ 引述《logdog (對數狗)》之銘言：
: : 強度已經升至130KTS
: : 應該算是一個SUPER TYPHOON了吧
: : 為何JTWC還是維持TYPHOON的評價?
: : 看起來這可能是最高了
: 看來是 JTWC 的作業有些延遲，
: prognostic reasoning 剛剛才出來，是 STY 沒錯，
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ 摘錄如下
: 第 15 報的路徑與半徑圖上也標示 STY，
: 應該等會兒就會把首頁上的 TY 改成 STY 了

2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

A. STY 17W (KROSA) HAS ATTAINED SUPER TYPHOON STATUS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS DUE TO IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, PARTICULARLY IN THE
EYEWALL. THE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF STORM MOTION HAS ALSO INCREASED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

B. THE CURRENT STORM INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 7.0/7.0 FROM PGTW AND 6.5/6.5 FROM
RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL OUT-
FLOW, PARTICULARLY TOWARD AN EXTENSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, SOME IMPINGEMENT OF OUTFLOW ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE STORM IS EVIDENT IN RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS
DISRUPTION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL REFLECTION
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA.

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