17W形成 - 颱風討論

其實是14日上午八點就形成了..

一樣也是跳過TCFA直接升級...

預估也是一個無害的自生自滅系統...不過可能也會阻擋太平洋高壓西伸..

而且JTWC只發一報 (同時 final warning)




MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 33.7N 149.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 33.7N 149.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 35.6N 152.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 37.1N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 34.2N 149.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF
TOKYO, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATED SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT
THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL WARNING. TD 17W IS ACCELERATING INTO
THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. A 132037Z TRMM IMAGE
DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER WARM SST NEAR
28C BASED ON AN OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 43545 WITH SLP OF 1004.3 MB.
THIS OBSERVATION IS ABOUT 20 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER, AND ALONG
WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS, JUSTIFIES THIS
WARNING. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY BEGUN EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD
AND COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 6 FEET. REFER TO
TYPHOON 15W (SINLAKU) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//




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