201822 Mangkhut（山竹）生成 - 颱風討論

JMA首報

WTPQ50 RJTD 071200

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 1822 MANGKHUT (1822) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 071200UTC 12.9N 165.3E FAIR

MOVE NW 12KT

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

GUST 050KT

30KT 150NM

FORECAST

24HF 081200UTC 14.2N 159.2E 60NM 70%

MOVE W 17KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

GUST 060KT

48HF 091200UTC 13.6N 152.3E 110NM 70%

MOVE W 17KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 050KT

GUST 070KT

72HF 101200UTC 13.0N 146.4E 140NM 70%

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 065KT

GUST 095KT

96HF 111200UTC 13.4N 143.2E 200NM 70%

MOVE W 08KT

120HF 121200UTC 15.2N 140.2E 290NM 70%

MOVE WNW 09KT =

==============================================================================
JMA分析資料全文

WTPQ30 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 1822 MANGKHUT (1822)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 12.2N, 166.3E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(MANGKHUT) STATUS. TS MANGKHUT IS LOCATED AT 12.9N, 165.3E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS,
HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND
MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. =
==============================================================================
定位資料

JTWC JMA

9/4 12Z 10.0N 178.0E 15
9/4 18Z 10.0N 177.1E 15
9/5 00Z 10.0N 176.2E 15
9/5 06Z 10.2N 175.4E 15
9/5 12Z 10.6N 174.8E 15
9/5 18Z 11.0N 174.2E 20
9/6 00Z 11.5N 173.1E 20
9/6 06Z 12.0N 172.0E 20
9/6 12Z 12.1N 170.8E 20
9/6 18Z 12.1N 169.6E 20
9/7 00Z 12.3N 168.0E 20 TD
9/7 06Z 12.4N 166.7E 25 TD 9/7 06Z 12.2N 166.3E 30 TD
9/7 09Z 12.5N 166.1E 30 TD
9/7 12Z 12.8N 165.5E 30 TD 9/7 12Z 12.9N 165.3E 35 TS
9/7 15Z 13.1N 164.5E 35 TS
9/7 18Z 13.0N 163.9E 35 TS 9/7 18Z 13.0N 163.9E 35 TS
9/7 21Z 13.3N 163.2E 35 TS
9/8 00Z 13.6N 162.3E 35 TS 9/8 00Z 13.6N 162.3E 35 TS
9/8 03Z 14.0N 161.5E 35 TS
9/8 06Z 14.3N 160.8E 40 TS 9/8 06Z 14.3N 161.1E 40 TS
9/8 09Z 14.4N 160.3E 40 TS
9/8 12Z 14.8N 159.1E 45 TS 9/8 12Z 14.5N 159.2E 45 TS
9/8 15Z 14.4N 158.1E 45 TS
9/8 18Z 14.9N 157.0E 55 TS 9/8 18Z 14.6N 157.4E 50 STS
9/8 21Z 14.7N 156.1E 55 STS
9/9 00Z 15.1N 154.9E 65 TY 9/9 00Z 14.8N 155.0E 65 TY
9/9 03Z 15.2N 153.8E 65 TY
9/9 06Z 15.3N 152.9E 70 TY 9/9 06Z 15.3N 152.9E 65 TY
9/9 09Z 15.1N 152.1E 65 TY
9/9 12Z 15.1N 150.9E 75 TY 9/9 12Z 15.1N 151.4E 70 TY
9/9 15Z 15.0N 150.4E 75 TY
9/9 18Z 14.7N 149.1E 80 TY 9/9 18Z 14.6N 149.1E 80 TY
9/9 21Z 14.6N 148.6E 80 TY
9/10 00Z 14.5N 147.4E 80 TY 9/10 00Z 14.6N 147.5E 80 TY
9/10 03Z 14.4N 146.5E 80 TY
9/10 06Z 14.3N 145.7E 90 TY 9/10 06Z 14.4N 145.6E 80 TY
9/10 09Z 14.2N 144.8E 80 TY
9/10 12Z 14.1N 144.2E 100 TY 9/10 12Z 14.2N 144.2E 85 TY
9/10 15Z 14.1N 143.6E 85 TY
9/10 18Z 14.0N 142.6E 110 TY 9/10 18Z 14.0N 142.6E 85 TY
9/10 21Z 14.0N 142.0E 85 TY
9/11 00Z 14.0N 141.2E 120 TY 9/11 00Z 14.0N 141.3E 95 TY
9/11 03Z 13.9N 140.6E 100 TY
9/11 06Z 14.0N 139.7E 135 STY 9/11 06Z 13.9N 139.8E 105 TY
9/11 09Z 13.8N 139.2E 105 TY
9/11 12Z 13.7N 138.6E 140 STY 9/11 12Z 13.7N 138.7E 105 TY
9/11 15Z 14.0N 138.1E 105 TY
9/11 18Z 13.9N 137.3E 140 STY 9/11 18Z 14.0N 137.4E 110 TY
9/11 21Z 13.9N 136.7E 110 TY
9/12 00Z 13.9N 136.2E 140 STY 9/12 00Z 13.9N 136.2E 110 TY
9/12 03Z 13.9N 135.7E 110 TY
9/12 06Z 14.0N 135.2E 150 STY 9/12 06Z 14.0N 135.2E 110 TY
9/12 09Z 14.2N 134.7E 110 TY
9/12 12Z 14.2N 134.0E 150 STY 9/12 12Z 14.3N 134.0E 110 TY
9/12 15Z 14.4N 133.2E 110 TY
9/12 18Z 14.3N 132.5E 155 STY

9/13 00Z 14.5N 131.2E 145 STY

9/13 06Z 14.7N 130.1E 145 STY

9/13 12Z 15.0N 129.0E 145 STY

9/13 18Z 15.2N 127.9E 150 STY

9/14 00Z 15.9N 126.9E 150 STY

9/14 06Z 16.8N 125.6E 145 STY

9/14 12Z 17.4N 124.1E 145 STY

9/14 18Z 18.0N 122.3E 145 STY

9/15 00Z 18.1N 120.6E 115 TY

9/15 06Z 18.5N 119.7E 105 TY

9/15 12Z 19.2N 118.4E 105 TY

9/15 18Z 19.8N 116.9E 90 TY

9/15 00Z 20.7N 115.2E 85 TY

9/15 06Z 21.6N 113.6E 85 TY

9/15 12Z 22.1N 111.8E 70 TY

FINAL WARNING

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