201923 Halong（哈隆）誕生 - 颱風討論

Puput avatar
By Puput
at 2019-11-03T00:33

Table of Contents

WTPQ20 RJTD 021500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1923 HALONG (1923) UPGRADED FROM TD



ANALYSIS
PSTN 021500UTC 13.3N 156.9E POOR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST



FORECAST

24HF 031500UTC 17.0N 153.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

--
◥◣◥◣ 歡迎搭乘西北太平洋第六世代環狀線捷運系統！　　　　　　　　　》》》◤
◢◤◢◤ Welcome to take Generation Ⅵ Circular Line of W.Pacific Metro! ◤

本側開門　 麥德姆 → 哈隆　 → 娜克莉
← ▍ ︽ ▍→ ——○—————●—————○——→
Exit side Matmo → Halong → Nakri

--
Tags: 颱風

All Comments

Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2019-11-06T03:49
賀隆?
Jacky avatar
By Jacky
at 2019-11-09T07:05
非正報升格!
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2019-11-12T10:21
跟一樓想的一樣XD
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2019-11-15T13:37
路徑預測會拐到東太的颱風
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2019-11-18T16:52
GFS這報平西王變成“大”物…
Damian avatar
By Damian
at 2019-11-21T20:08
真是"大" 跟季風低壓有87%像
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2019-11-24T23:24
90W GW
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2019-11-28T02:40
開眼起飛了
Cara avatar
By Cara
at 2019-12-01T05:56
分析出T6.5，OW+WMG，等眼在清空一些
Rachel avatar
By Rachel
at 2019-12-04T09:12
由於MJO在西太的原因應該不會有乾掉的問題
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2019-12-07T12:27
http://i.imgur.com/8ovz947.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/ZkxTc7q.jpg
Elvira avatar
By Elvira
at 2019-12-10T15:43
http://i.imgur.com/7QvQOxw.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/5EfmLtl.jpg
逐漸環狀
Regina avatar
By Regina
at 2019-12-13T18:59
一下沒看已經默默爬到C4了@@
Jessica avatar
By Jessica
at 2019-12-16T22:15
眼溫真是優秀，約莫17~18度
Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2019-12-20T01:31
老J: T7.0/7.0，W+WMG正式合格，希望下一報強度別
亂搞啊!!
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2019-12-24T03:07
SATCON只要沒130+基本上老J不會給C5
Joseph avatar
By Joseph
at 2019-12-27T06:23
SATCON分析出927hpa 133knots 有cat.5的機會了!!!
Damian avatar
By Damian
at 2019-12-30T09:39
入夜搞不好可以蓋起合格的CMG環...
https://imgur.com/4UN6m2M.jpg
Dora avatar
By Dora
at 2020-01-02T12:55
厚度很足啊 再撐一點就有機會
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2020-01-05T16:11
眼溫正式突破20度
Suhail Hany avatar
By Suhail Hany
at 2020-01-08T19:26
當地即將入夜，準備迎接CMG+WMG
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2020-01-11T22:42
和雪梨墨爾本同時區 快要入夜了
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2020-01-15T01:58
完蛋 AMSU剛剛沒掃中
可能拿不到C5了
Ula avatar
By Ula
at 2020-01-18T05:14
這種型態還能分析到6.5 JMA你有事嗎？
Isabella avatar
By Isabella
at 2020-01-21T08:30
JTWC 130kts
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2020-01-24T11:46
沒意外又是參考現時毫無參考性的SATCON跟JMA的6.5低
能分析
Ursula avatar
By Ursula
at 2020-01-27T15:01
JTWC今年再次成功阻止了Cat.5的誕生
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2020-01-30T18:17
http://i.imgur.com/UScxrzf.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/T5TsHzw.jpg
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2020-02-02T21:33
#typhoon #Halong an absolute beast right now, i
f JMA doesn’t have it at 100kts or more and JT
WC 135kts+ at 06z they’re seriously underestim
ating it’s strength! https://t.co/UEKxY9vZV0
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2020-02-06T00:49
CMG環已經大致繞完一圈了，再稍微對稱一點弄均勻一
點會更好
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2020-02-09T04:05
http://i.imgur.com/hUewfJl.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/My0lQgh.jpg
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2020-02-12T07:21
現在SATCON跟2013年8.1.多少的ADT有得拚就是?
Gary avatar
By Gary
at 2020-02-15T10:37
今年只有130與140啦XDDD
John avatar
By John
at 2020-02-18T13:52
我看老J今年的BT可能明年十月都生不出來 喬強度到死
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2020-02-21T17:08
目前哈隆的型態沒給Cat.5根本比博洛依更扯...
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2020-02-25T18:45
CIMSS: 902.4 152.0 7.4 7.5 7.5 眼溫維持20度
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2020-02-28T22:00
考慮德法的滯後性再怎樣也要給貓5吧
James avatar
By James
at 2020-03-03T01:16
沒啥奇怪的 老J升強度一向都慢慢來
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2020-03-06T04:32
00Z給115 06z分析7.0不太可能直接給C5
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2020-03-09T07:48
不過維持到晚上形態都沒轉太差 140~145沒啥問題
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2020-03-12T11:04
我指的是下一報，這一報就算了
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2020-03-15T14:20
SATCON低主要還是AMSU沒掃中，現在還是早上的分析
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2020-03-18T17:35
“130 KNOTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSI
TY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T6.5-7.0 (127-140 KNOT
S), SUPPORTED BY A 050300Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 13
2 KNOTS”
果然被我猜中，參考了SATCON跟JMA的分析
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2020-03-21T20:51
CWB跟CMA分別給48跟52，機構集體去世
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2020-03-25T00:07
遠洋北轉CMA經常瞎子
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2020-03-28T03:23
JMA率先給到猛烈
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2020-03-31T06:39
漂亮的螺旋雨帶
Regina avatar
By Regina
at 2020-04-03T09:55
http://i.imgur.com/3VetFfL.jpg
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2020-04-06T13:11
899惹 好誇張
Dinah avatar
By Dinah
at 2020-04-09T16:26
http://i.imgur.com/O9vLQR1.jpg
噓錯補推
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2020-04-12T19:42
CMG+WMG
Andrew avatar
By Andrew
at 2020-04-15T22:58
哈吉貝的位置要不保了
Freda avatar
By Freda
at 2020-04-19T02:14
有神快拜啊，新一代的風王要誕生了，CMG+WMG要直接
上看155了吧
Jessica avatar
By Jessica
at 2020-04-22T05:30
JMA分析CI7.5
Skylar Davis avatar
By Skylar Davis
at 2020-04-25T08:46
各位觀眾
JTWC：T7.0
1140的圖
George avatar
By George
at 2020-04-28T12:02
http://i.imgur.com/WhKZ1AF.jpg
真是他X的狗屎
這個叫做W+WMG
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2020-05-01T15:17
CMG厚成這樣眼睛是瞎了嗎...?
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2020-05-04T18:33
..... 老J分析員是拿什麼圖來分析的???
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2020-05-07T21:49
JMA給7.5 SATCON 155
我就看待會JTWC怎麼給
Genevieve avatar
By Genevieve
at 2020-05-11T01:05
AMSU147. 但是掃偏 RMW估算也有問題 參考度不高
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2020-05-14T04:21
目前對流強 但是風眼並不是很好
Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2020-05-17T07:37
7.6 / 896.1mb/158.0kt
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2020-05-20T10:52
7.6 7.9 7.9
眼溫達20.8，似乎還在升
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2020-05-23T14:08
JMA:115kts
哈隆正式成為RSMC認證的2019西太風王
Kristin avatar
By Kristin
at 2020-05-26T17:24
JMA給了115 官方風王基本確定了
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2020-05-29T20:40
CMA 58
JTWC 140kts
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2020-06-01T23:56
簡直垃圾
Lucy avatar
By Lucy
at 2020-06-05T03:12
不是很愛參考SATCON嗎
現在SATCON給155了你又不看了
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2020-06-08T06:28
無法言語的分析 死去的定強
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2020-06-11T09:43
老J分析員:7.0 >140 看satcon155 這麼高 肯定
有問題
Liam avatar
By Liam
at 2020-06-14T12:59
下午那報看了JMA的低能6.5 跟過時的SATCON，結果這
次JMA正常了SATCON是最新的又不看了
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2020-06-17T16:15
你說沒有故意要壓強度我還不信哩
Freda avatar
By Freda
at 2020-06-20T19:31
今年颱風季JTWC怎麼走鐘成這樣...
Frederic avatar
By Frederic
at 2020-06-23T22:47
這次分析員是沒見過的Rhoades
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2020-06-27T02:03
140kts......
Wallis avatar
By Wallis
at 2020-06-30T05:19
7.7 / 892.8mb / 161.0kt !!!!!!
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2020-07-03T08:34
猛到CDG都能大致成環 然後老J認為這只是W環而已
Gary avatar
By Gary
at 2020-07-06T11:50
噓老J 回來看到140傻眼= =
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2020-07-09T15:06
https://imgur.com/m1gSOXb.jpg
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2020-07-12T18:22
CDG環大致圍成一圈了 大概只剩5~6個小時可以增強
陽光一旦出現對流環就可能會萎縮了
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2020-07-15T21:38
https://i.imgur.com/UUjcD4w.gif
Genevieve avatar
By Genevieve
at 2020-07-19T00:54
老J分析員是全數換新嗎? 今年分析這麼落漆
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2020-07-22T04:09
JTWC預備140封頂？
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2020-07-25T07:25
我看今年的BT真的明年此時見好了
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2020-07-28T10:41
CWB給了910hpa 55m/s
Agatha avatar
By Agatha
at 2020-07-31T13:57
西太再趕進度嗎？貓五不用錢.
Charlie avatar
By Charlie
at 2020-08-03T17:13
這不過是今年西太的第3個貓五而已...
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2020-08-06T20:29
說個笑話 老J: 蝴蝶=哈吉貝=哈隆=140kts
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2020-08-09T23:45
老J是否忘了140是C5下限不是上限
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2020-08-13T03:00
老J 140綜合症再次發作
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2020-08-16T06:16
對了 博羅依的強度也有被老J陰掉
Xanthe avatar
By Xanthe
at 2020-08-19T09:32
預報理由出來了 嗯...只參考德法
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2020-08-22T12:48
笑死 下午只給130的理由是SATCON跟其他家機構的德法
分析，結果現在這兩個完全不提了 呵
Blanche avatar
By Blanche
at 2020-08-25T16:04
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS B
ASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE O
Charlie avatar
By Charlie
at 2020-08-28T19:20
F T7.0 (140 KNOTS).
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2020-08-31T22:36
不是很愛看別的機構的分析和SATCON嗎？怎麼又不看了
呢？
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2020-09-04T01:51
這個用德法分析看也不會是T7.0吧 完全無視於CMG環的
存在...
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2020-09-07T05:07
麻煩CIMSS的ADT先看過再來寫報文...老J去領繩子好嗎
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2020-09-10T08:23
http://i.imgur.com/hviq0MR.jpg
話說，我們或許正在見證一個自海燕之後最瘋狂的一次
ADT
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2020-09-13T11:39
然後老J選擇繼續跳針.........
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2020-09-16T14:55
又給7.0了 開噓
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2020-09-19T18:11
https://imgur.com/8qZCCvO.jpg 這是T7.0
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2020-09-22T21:26
JTWC:T 7.0
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2020-09-26T00:42
http://i.imgur.com/WhKZ1AF.jpg 這也是T7.0
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2020-09-29T03:58
誰去教一下這個菜鳥分析員什麼叫做德法啊啊啊啊啊
他已經第二次分析出這種鬼東西啦啦啦啦啦
Doris avatar
By Doris
at 2020-10-02T07:14
這名字還蠻陌生的 新來的喔?
Suhail Hany avatar
By Suhail Hany
at 2020-10-05T10:30
1450Z繼續WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
Noah avatar
By Noah
at 2020-10-08T13:46
就菜鳥啊 新來的
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2020-10-11T17:02
JTWC: 來~我們一起來複習一次
https://imgur.com/zKsiXCU.jpg
Jake avatar
By Jake
at 2020-10-14T20:17
0830Z W+WMG 這是T7.0哦
http://i.imgur.com/WhKZ1AF.jpg
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2020-10-17T23:33
1140Z W+WMG 這也是T7.0哦:)
https://i.imgur.com/8qZCCvO.jpg
Erin avatar
By Erin
at 2020-10-21T02:49
1450Z W+WMG 這還是T7.0哦 謝謝指教<3<3
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2020-10-24T06:05
老J: 哪來的CMG環 是風迷自己眼睛業障重 懂?
David avatar
By David
at 2020-10-27T09:21
現在ADT如果是嗑藥嗨過頭 老J這位大概宿醉上工
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2020-10-30T12:37
超好混的啊 報文直接複製貼上即可 改都不用改
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2020-11-02T15:53
所以我說預報理由那精美的排版是怎樣......
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2020-11-05T19:08
T7.9 0.0
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2020-11-08T22:24
奇怪，這型態給150~160kts還差不多，怎麼會只有140
Agnes avatar
By Agnes
at 2020-11-12T01:40
http://i.imgur.com/Uv3G0JO.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/Q8L8wgt.jpg
Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2020-11-15T04:56
https://i.imgur.com/z4evUiP.png
Agatha avatar
By Agatha
at 2020-11-18T08:12
老J拿這張分析出T7.0，但這算是比較能接受的結果
CMG環已經開始變形了
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2020-11-21T11:28
上面是顯示要眼牆置換了嗎？
Audriana avatar
By Audriana
at 2020-11-24T14:43
ADT一度7.9，可惜AMSU沒跟上
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2020-11-27T17:59
CWB給了905mph，58m/s
Vanessa avatar
By Vanessa
at 2020-11-30T21:15
幸好18Z有給155，不然我一定噓爆老J= =
Blanche avatar
By Blanche
at 2020-12-04T00:31
12Z給這強度很合理，18Z給這強度感覺是補哨XD
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2020-12-07T03:47
JTWC 155kts JMA 115kts CWB 58m/s
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2020-12-10T07:03
有趣的是，JTWC在預報理由表示定強的依據來自自家德
法跟JMA的T7.5 還有SATCON
Rae avatar
By Rae
at 2020-12-13T10:19
可是JTWC在18Z的德法分析也才T7.0而已XD 那這7.5是
哪裡來的呢ZD
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2020-12-16T13:34
JTWC也把昨晚12Z的強度上調到145kts
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2020-12-19T16:50
巔峰已過 哈隆比較可惜的是眼睛一直不是很好
Dinah avatar
By Dinah
at 2020-12-22T20:06
對流雖然很強 但是整體CDO看起來怪怪的
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2020-12-25T23:22
直覺上不會比去年的玉兔強
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2020-12-29T02:38
JTWC的CI7.5推斷是Stigsson直接改正前面Rhoades的
Skylar Davis avatar
By Skylar Davis
at 2021-01-01T05:54
笑死 幫菜鳥擦屁股XD
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2021-01-04T09:10
JTWC:145kts 907mb
Poppy avatar
By Poppy
at 2021-01-07T12:25
年鑑看到Andrew Rhoades但是管資訊的老鳥
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2021-01-10T15:41
難道是JTWC缺分析員只好找代打？
Emma avatar
By Emma
at 2021-01-13T18:57
有可能喔，昨天連續五報都是他分析的

超大豪雨

Dinah avatar
By Dinah
at 2019-10-31T23:22
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天氣速觀：一波季風輻合撞上東部/東北部

David avatar
By David
at 2019-10-30T19:19
天氣速觀：一波季風輻合撞上東部/東北部 北北東風又轉為東北風， 秋季地面秀來了，目前台東外海正上演季風輻合並且往花蓮全區而來， 模式預報看法稍異的地方是， EC模式認為，除花連大雨過後， 之後降雨受地形影響分成兩股，一股往台東大武下一陣， 另一股季風輻合秀往北擴及宜蘭南方山區上演， 美軍模式則保守認為，明起 ...

201922 Matmo（麥德姆）誕生

Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2019-10-30T03:09
WTPQ20 RJTD 291800 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 1922 MATMO (1922) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 291800UTC 13.5N 112.9E FAIR MOVE NW 12KT P ...

天氣小觀：冬天訊號口碑場先體驗，北北東風來了

Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2019-10-29T21:08
天氣小觀：冬天訊號口碑場先體驗，北北東風來了 很多基隆人都說，一變冷就下雨， 其實原因很簡單，對基隆來說，北北東風就是最冷最濕。 寒露過去，時節已經來到霜降， 這兩天大氣環境吹起北北東風，讓北台灣民眾尤其基隆初嘗冬味的口碑場體驗了。 霜降，是24節氣中秋季的最後一個節氣，再來就是11月8日的立冬了。 立冬 ...

Pablo海溫19度升颶風

Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2019-10-28T01:26
本月有人問溫帶氣旋會有什麼有趣的變化，現在出現極端的例子。 NHC稍早升格亞速群島以北的Pablo至颶風，重點是海溫只有19度，靠的就是高空冷池。 https://i.imgur.com/J1lneUK.png (注意位置！） Pablo原本是暴風級的溫帶氣旋，減弱後脫離鋒面，核心快速激發深對流成為熱帶 ...