22W 形成 - 颱風討論

位於南海西側的 94w 已經在傍晚五點(TST) 升級為 22W 了

JTWC 預測往北北西轉西緩慢移動，強度差不多維持到登陸..

等晚上的 JMA 嚕...


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/wp222008.gif

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140130Z OCT 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN31 PGTW 140900

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 19.1N 107.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 107.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.5N 107.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM WESTERN
HAINAN ISLAND, A RECENT SHIP REPORT FROM THE GULF OF TONKIN,
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES INDICATE
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TD 22W HAS INTENSIFIED OVER
THE PAST 06 HOURS, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NOW
EXCEDING THE 25 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD. LOW TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF TD 22W WILL TURN THE SYSTEM WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM
INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM AROUND TAU 24. GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
WILL OFFSET THE IMPACT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHILE
THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER, ALLOWING TD 22W TO MAINTAIN
INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN
140130Z OCT 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT


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