91W TCFA - 颱風討論

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WTPN21 PGTW 162200
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 127.6E TO 18.7N 126.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 162130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.3N 127.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N
127.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
IMPROVED, CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 161851Z SSMI IMAGE
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND SOUTH
QUADRANT WITH A BROAD LLCC. A 161544Z OSCAT IMAGE INDICATED AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (LESS
THAN 15 KNOTS) AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
LOCATED NEAR 21N 127E. THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172200Z.//


熱帯低気圧
平成25年06月17日07時05分 発表

<17日06時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 13度05分(13.1度)
東経 127度00分(127.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<17日18時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 15度00分(15.0度)
東経 125度55分(125.9度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 20km/h(11kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 150km(80NM)

<18日06時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 フィリピンの東
予報円の中心 北緯 16度55分(16.9度)
東経 125度00分(125.0度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 20km/h(10kt)
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 220km(120NM)熱帯低気圧
平成25年06月17日07時05分 発表

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