91W TCFA - 颱風討論

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.6N 142.5E TO 16.8N 135.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 040000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2N 141.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
050100Z.//
NNNN

TCFA Test: http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9118web.txt
TCFA Graphic: http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9118.gif

GFS Ensembles: https://imgur.com/NxD6MoC.jpg

目前看起來副高的脊線東退出華南台灣一帶東退得很徹底，至於和90W是否有藤原效應
可能要看渦度是否有相連，90W也有可能被91W吃掉，目前看起來91W體質比其他兩隻好
多了。

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