91W TCFA - 颱風討論

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WTPN21 PGTW 180230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIF
ICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18
.9N 119.2E TO 22.8N 121.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES
NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WIND
S IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 180000Z IN
DICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.3E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (IN
VEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 117.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.
3E APPROXIMATELY 628 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHAN
CED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 172316Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPIC
T A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 60 NM SOUTHWARD OF A CONSOLIDATING L
LC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91W IS NOW IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20KT) VER
TICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. SSTS ARE FAVOR
ABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 30-32C. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW 91W TRACKING NORTHWARD AND
TRAILING TS DANAS(06W) AS AN ELONGATED DISTURBANCE WITH LINEAR CONVECTION. MAX
IMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVE
L PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS AL
ERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 190230Z.// NNNN

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