92W GW/TCFA - 颱風討論

可能因為要通過琉球群島一帶

JMA可說是效率滿滿呢~

台灣需要注意這個系統的發展

有可能在周一通過台灣東北方海面(也可能更靠近)

http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/b.html

熱帯低気圧
令和02年08月01日10時30分 発表

<01日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 フィリピンの東
中心位置 北緯 19度50分(19.8度)
東経 129度05分(129.1度)
進行方向、速さ 北北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1006hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<01日21時の予報>
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 沖縄の南
予報円の中心 北緯 20度40分(20.7度)
東経 126度50分(126.8度)
進行方向、速さ 西北西 20km/h(12kt)
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)
予報円の半径 110km(60NM)

<02日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 石垣島の南南東約290km
予報円の中心 北緯 22度00分(22.0度)
東経 125度25分(125.4度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 15km/h(9kt)
中心気圧 1002hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 150km(80NM)

---

https://i.imgur.com/ChbwPZL.jpg

WTPN22 PGTW 312130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311821Z JUL 20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 311830)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.1N 130.0E TO 22.7N 125.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 311800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.4N 129.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 129.6E, APPROXIMATELY
465 NM SOUTHEAST OF ISHIGAKIJIMA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING
BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE EAST. A 311709Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM
THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 311300Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS REVEALS TIGHT
TROUGHING WITH A SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE.
92W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
INTENSIFYING, POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD WITHIN 36
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
012130Z.
4. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 311830) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.0E//
NNNN

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