92W TCFA - 颱風討論

圖：http://ppt.cc/n7lB（引用自FNMOC，有安全性憑證為正常現象）

WTPN21 PGTW 290530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2N 142.7E TO 8.3N 133.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 290500Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 141.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N
141.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST
OF YAP ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 282359Z
AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
WESTERN QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP INDICATE AN SLP
VALUE OF ABOUT 1004 MB WITH A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.5 MB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW, WHICH IS
FUELING THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD TOWARD YAP AND KOROR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
300530Z.//
NNNN

看來不會變二月颱了。
P.S.玲玲造成菲律賓至少64人死亡。

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