92W TCFA <熱帶氣旋警報> - 颱風討論

JTWC 92W TCFA

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▲ 今年第一位即將挑戰中央山脈的勇者，絲豪沒有退讓的跡象，請鼓掌。

原文如下：[ http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9218web.txt ]
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WTPN21 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.0N 118.0E TO 27.1N 124.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.1N 119.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 22.4N 119.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 119.0E, APPROXIMATELY
224 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WEAK, FLARING
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
220158Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS DISPLACED TO THE EAST. A 220158Z MHS METOP-A
IMAGE REVEALS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, ALSO DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF
THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-20 KTS), GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND
WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-30C. DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS
DEPENDENT UPON ITS INTERACTION WITH THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF TAIWAN. THE
LONGER THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA, THE GREATER ITS CHANCES ARE OF CONSOLIDATING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. HOWEVER, IF THE SYSTEM REACHES TAIWAN BEFORE FURTHER
CONSOLIDATION, THE LAND INTERACTION WILL REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF
IMMEDIATE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM REEMERGES NORTH OF TAIWAN.
REGARDLESS, 30+ KNOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LUZON STRAIT DUE TO
TERRAIN FUNNELING AS THE CIRCULATION PASSES OVER TAIWAN. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230900Z.//
NNNN
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