94W TCFA GW - 颱風討論

準海馬

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http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/a.html

熱帯低気圧
平成28年10月14日10時30分 発表

<14日09時の実況>
大きさ -
強さ -
熱帯低気圧
存在地域 カロリン諸島
中心位置 北緯 6度20分(6.3度)
東経 145度20分(145.3度)
進行方向、速さ 西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1004hPa
中心付近の最大風速 15m/s(30kt)
最大瞬間風速 23m/s(45kt)

<15日09時の予報>
強さ -
存在地域 カロリン諸島
予報円の中心 北緯 7度25分(7.4度)
東経 143度50分(143.8度)
進行方向、速さ 北西 ゆっくり
中心気圧 1000hPa
中心付近の最大風速 18m/s(35kt)
最大瞬間風速 25m/s(50kt)
予報円の半径 200km(110NM)

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http://imgur.com/sYEt8B7.jpg


WTPN21 PGTW 132030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.0N 146.1E TO 10.2N 141.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.9N 145.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 146.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9N 145.8E, APPROXIMATELY 398
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. AN
131718Z 85GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK OF CONVECTION
LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLCC. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH STRONG DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AIDED BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT)
TO THE NORTHWEST, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142030Z.//
NNNN

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