94W TCFA <熱帶氣旋警報> - 颱風討論

JTWC 94W TCFA

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▲ 目前在關島東北方海面上，一路向西的話......再觀察囉。

原文如下：[ http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9018web.txt ]
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WTPN21 PGTW 020700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.5N 152.8E TO 20.6N 148.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.6N 152.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 152.0E, APPROXIMATELY
507 NM NORTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. A 020452Z SSMI 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH QUADRANT INTO THE SOUTH QUADRANT.
THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD
AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-
30C) ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
030700Z.//
NNNN
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