96W TCFA - 颱風討論

NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 23.4N 132.1E TO 29.0N 134.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 24.0N 132.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS:
RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132054Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE AROUND A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 132055Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHTLY WOUND LLCC WITH
15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER LEVEL PARENT
CIRCULATION HAS SINCE DETACHED FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION
ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST AND BUILD NEAR THE CENTER.
THE 200MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE EAST
OVER THE SYSTEM MODERATING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS WELL AS
FACILITATING FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD EXHAUST. DUE TO THE STRENG-
THENING SURFACE CIRCULATION AND IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 150030Z.//


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