96w TCFA GW - 颱風討論

WTPN21 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 180 NM RADIUS OF 17.4N 124.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 181730Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 124.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.

2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N
124.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 124.8E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES.

RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTORS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC).

THE EIR, ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SSMIS IMAGES (180929Z
AND 180933Z) SHOW A NOTICEABLE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED A COUPLE OF DEGREES POLEWARD OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE TROPICAL UPPER-
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS CAN BE SEEN A FEW DEGREES NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. ANOTHER LARGER TUTT CELL RESIDES FURTHER TO
THE EAST, SOUTH OF JAPAN. THIS COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
CAUSING CONVERGENCE OVER THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE LLCC AND
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
IS ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS THE SMALLER TUTT CELLS SHOULD TRACK OFF TO THE WEST AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW MAY BECOME CONNECTED TO THE LARGER TUTT CELL WHICH
RESIDES FURTHER TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE UPPER-LEVEL
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY.


CURRENTLY, AN 181334Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES A LARGE FIELD
OF 20 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT RANGING
FROM 26-29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
DRIFT EQUATORWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING A POLEWARD
TURN THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. DUE TO IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION,
ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
191800Z.//
NNNN

老J好像有說
看的到不錯的LLCC(WELL-DEFINED)
高層的流出會因為接上TUTT而有所改善
垂直風切變為弱
這些都是他升HIGH的理由
中心近似滯留中

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