96W TCFA <熱帶氣旋警報> - 颱風討論

JTWC 96W TCFA

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原文如下：[ http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp9618web.txt ]
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WTPN21 PGTW 101430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091421Z AUG 18//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (WTPN21
PGTW 090430)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 160 NM RADIUS OF 20.7N 112.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 111.4E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.8N 113.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY
175NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101048Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
BROAD REGION OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH TWO SEPARATE MASSES OF
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION, ONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLC AND
ONE TO THE NORTHWEST. VWS IN THE VICINITY OF 96W IS LOW-MODERATE (10-
20KTS) BUT INCREASES SHARPLY TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION, UL
DIVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SSTS REMAIN
FAVORABLY WARM (28-30C) IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. GLOBAL MODELS STILL
STRONGLY FAVOR DEVELOPMENT DESPITE THE NOW MARGINAL UL ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, LAND INTERACTION AND A CHANGE IN STEERING FLOW DUE TO A
BUILDING STR HAVE STARTED TO INDUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK
SOLUTIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TOWARDS THE
EAST BEFORE HEADING WESTWARD IN THE MID-LATE TAUS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111430Z.//
NNNN
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