97W TCFA - 颱風討論

老J已經發佈"97W"的TCFA

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WTPN21 PGTW 131730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 275 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9N 153.8E TO 14.4N 147.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR
11.8N 151.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 152.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 415NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, ANIMATED EIR DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO A LLCC THAT IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VWS AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE STEADY CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 141730Z.// NNNN

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