JTWC 18Z預測黃蜂顛峰將追平Tip! - 颱風討論

Erin avatar
By Erin
at 2014-10-08T04:27

Table of Contents

老J的報文很長,所以我把它獨立成一篇,不好意思~

覺得麻煩可以只看上色的部分和後面的註解就好XD

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 133.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 155 KT, GUSTS 190 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 133.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 18.1N 131.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 160 KT, GUSTS 195 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 18.8N 131.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 165 KT, GUSTS 200 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 19.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 20.8N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.4N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.4N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 29.4N 130.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 132.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 19W (VONGFONG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 612 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z
IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
NNNN



老J罕見地沒有從135kts調升到140kts,而是直接跳升到155kts!

並預測顛峰強度會到165kts,追平Tip!



老J理智斷線啦!
        老J理智斷線啦!
                老J理智斷線啦!

--
DanasYuri :海燕CDO不小.對流極強.水氣紅一圈.梅姬無法比...11/08 00:04
DanasYuri :保守一點持平. 但整個型態包含CDO.海燕是頂級的那種11/08 00:05
Lamuneforty :燕窩11/08 00:40
killseven : 非常好11/08 00:41

--
Tags: 颱風

All Comments

Una avatar
By Una
at 2014-10-11T07:48
海燕CDO不小.對流極強.水氣紅一圈.梅姬無法比...
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2014-10-14T11:08
保守一點持平. 但整個型態包含CDO.海燕是頂級的那種
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2014-10-17T14:29
燕窩
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2014-10-20T17:50
非常好
Lucy avatar
By Lucy
at 2014-10-23T21:10
目前黃蜂的對流似乎有略微減弱的樣子?
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2014-10-27T00:31
又要見證歷史了……水
Una avatar
By Una
at 2014-10-30T03:51
早上了 雲頂溫度不可能不升高 下午是最高的時段
William avatar
By William
at 2014-11-02T07:12
先別提海燕 幹掉MEGI之後再來說吧XD
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2014-11-05T10:32
除非有飛機穿越實測 不然要破海燕機率很低
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2014-11-08T13:53
應該很多人醒來後會覺得自己看錯雲圖= =
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2014-11-11T17:13
要看黃蜂的毅力了~~~不過進入白天了....
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2014-11-14T20:34
\西太逆轉勝/
Valerie avatar
By Valerie
at 2014-11-17T23:54
西太要贏很容易阿 常常風王都是在西太 所以不意外
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2014-11-21T03:15
燕王:嗯?有挑戰者?
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2014-11-24T06:35
最近的颱風素質都很恐怖,去年有媲美上古神獸的海燕

【大黃蜂登基 王峰全球風王 西太逆轉秀】

James avatar
By James
at 2014-10-08T03:22
10/7 18Z 所有機構全部的DT、PT、FT全數分析出7.5 JMA分析: 24 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF 0.75000000000000E+001 NUMERIC 25 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE 0.750000000 ...

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Jake avatar
By Jake
at 2014-10-07T19:03
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Jacky avatar
By Jacky
at 2014-10-07T18:53
http://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/201410070221-1.aspx (中央社東京7日綜合外電報導)共同社報導,搭載日本氣象廳新型氣象衛星「向日葵8號 」的H2A火箭25號機,今天下午2點16分按計畫從鹿兒島縣南種子町的宇宙航空研究開發機 構種子島宇宙中心發射升空。 日本 ...

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Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2014-10-07T17:32
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Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2014-10-06T15:15
CWB網頁一直在加東西~ 資料越來越豐富~ 在觀測項目新增了一個 氣象要素排序集 http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/observe/ 可以查.. 高溫/低溫/時雨量/24小時雨量/48小時雨量/日雨量/兩日雨量/颱風總雨量 的歷史紀錄及排序 如果再有風 ...