JTWC大幅度修改08W路徑... - 颱風討論

真的要進南海了....從台灣海峽北上..

南台灣要小心了，西南風加上15大潮 = ="


REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5N 123.7E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TD 08W HAS MAINTAINED TD STRENGTH AND
RELATIVELY WEAK ORGANIZATION EVIDENCED BY THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE
BANDING AND THE FLARING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED
BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND SYNOPTIC SHIP OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE
CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION AND TRACK SPEED REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE
TO THE LACK OF CURRENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE DISORGANIZED SYSTEM.
THE CURRENT TRACK REFLECTS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK PHILOSOPHY,
SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, BASED ON APPARENT PROBLEMS WITH THE
AVAILABLE MODEL TRACKERS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
INCORRECTLY UNDER FORECASTING THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT,
THIS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN ERRONEOUS NORTHWARD TRACK WHICH
DOESN'T FIT WITH RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION AND FAVORS THE WESTERN-MOST MODELS (WBAR
AND UK MET OFFICE). IN GENERAL, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
SLOWLY AND TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE RE-CURVING
NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATING OVER CHINA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z,
151500Z AND 152100Z.//




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