反聖嬰現象或將進入尾聲 - 颱風討論

Transition to ENSO-Neutral Conditions Possible

Scientists at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are seeing signs that La
Nina, a periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and
east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean that influences U.S. weather patterns,
could soon be coming to an end.

In the latest ENSO Diagnostics Discussion released on May 8, NOAA forecasters
’ state La Nina continued to weaken in April 2008, and predict a transition
to neutral conditions is possible during June or July.

Currently, ocean temperatures remain below normal, but are approaching
near-normal state. Also, many computer models indicate this trend will likely
continue. La Nina episodes often dissipate over the spring and early summer.


以上三段的大意是：反聖嬰現象持續減弱中，可能已進入尾聲

大概在六或七月時就會回到正常情況

雖然赤道東太平洋海溫仍低於均值，但已較過去數月上升許多


La Nina developed during July through September 2007, and became strong
during December 2007 through February 2008. Throughout the winter, La Nina
was associated with very heavy precipitation in the Ohio Valley and in the
northern Rockies, and generally drier-than-average conditions over parts of
the southern Plains and the Southeast.


自去年夏季已來的反聖嬰現象，

使得俄亥俄谷地與落磯山區北部的雨量顯著偏多，

美國南部平原與東南部地區則偏乾


Typically, La Nina does not have strong impacts for the United States within
the spring and early summer. However, this episode will need to be closely
monitored since La Nina can influence the hurricane season in late summer and
fall. NOAA will issue its North Atlantic, central Pacific and eastern Pacific
hurricane outlooks in late May.


雖然反聖嬰現象通常不會對美國春季與早夏的天氣產生明顯影響，

卻可能影響北大西洋颶風的發展情況

NOAA 會在五月下旬發布本年度北大西洋、中太平洋與東太平洋的颶風展望


Relevant Websites

ENSO Diagnostic Discussion and Weekly Update

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/index.shtml

ENSO FAQs

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/prelude_to_ensofaq.shtml

El Nino/La Nina Web Page
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Behind the Scenes
http://www.magazine.noaa.gov/stories/mag229.htm


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