吳德榮退休，氣象大老：喚起社會正視預 … - 颱風討論

By Daniel
at 2009-10-31T00:10

Table of Contents

: 的預報，讓台電做出正確的決策，替國家賺近十幾億。
: 對自己掀起的這一波風浪，吳德榮還是選擇說出真話，他表示：每次災害出現，氣象局都
: 第一個被點名，罵完氣象局之後，後續的防災檢討似乎也就很少被討論，讓氣象局背黑鍋
: 多年。颱風路徑預報名列前茅，但一百公里的誤差，終究還是誤差，很多困擾就是在這裡
: 產生，外界以為預報是百分之百，許多不公平的批評就是在這裡產生。
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
如果真的要說專業的傲慢,那應該只有這一句了. 氣象預報幾年了呢?
為何大多數的人,都認為氣象預報是百分之百?連馬總統從納莉一直到莫拉克
都還是認為氣象局有能力做百分之百的預報,那更何況是一般的老百姓.
吳德榮上次說台灣的社會是理盲,我老實不客氣的講,那是放屁...
氣象局有沒有告訴人民,他們的雨量預報是不準的.要不是這次出了大包,
一般人誰會知道雨量預報的準確性這麼低,我老闆聽完之後只說一句話,
這麼不準還報屁呀..我還以為很準耶....
既然知道颱風有100KM的誤差,那一般人知道嗎?
預報的時候,有告訴大家,萬一這個誤差發生時,會影響多大呢?
老實說..當初的莫拉克在往北個7,80KM..那發生的情況就截然不同了,
憑啥氣象局認為這種情況不會發生?..當超過80%以上的人認為當天
應該是北部影響超過南部時,氣象局的確有問題.....
就像我的工作是做電磁相容,全台灣有多少人知道這是啥?
那我是不是也要說台灣人民是理盲呢?
不要認為你知道的事情別人也要理所當然知道...

--

Tags: 颱風

All Comments

By Delia
at 2009-10-31T09:06

處在多災多難的寶島人民自然要有警覺經歷那麼多台

By Kama
at 2009-11-04T20:09

颱風自然就要知道預測的準度
活了幾十年難道還真會以為預測100%嗎經驗會說話吧

By Linda
at 2009-11-05T05:06

我比較納悶的是從小到大經歷過多少次颱風了
為什麼會覺得氣象局報的100%準確是應該的????

By Olive
at 2009-11-05T14:02

的確不應該說理盲~應該講是常識盲，這些都是基本常識

By Gilbert
at 2009-11-05T22:58

怎麼沒有人噓？自己沒有常識還怪氣象局

By Jessica
at 2009-11-06T07:54

要不要他每天打電話給你阿跟你說哪裡有誤差

By Suhail Hany
at 2009-11-06T16:51

晴之多雲偶陣雨降雨機率:50%
時

By Megan
at 2009-11-07T01:47

有沒有人注意到那個%數阿

By Faithe
at 2009-11-07T10:43

甚麼時候"預測"這兩個字變成100%的代表了?

By Regina
at 2009-11-07T19:39

如果百分之百那就變成預知了XD...

By Ophelia
at 2009-11-08T04:35

""有機會有可能" 翻翻以往的預報都看得到這類字眼

By Sarah
at 2009-11-08T13:32

應該要問...為何總是在周遭發生的狀況我們總是忽略

By Emily
at 2009-11-08T22:28

路徑潛勢圖 70%寫在那裡了…

By Vanessa
at 2009-11-09T07:24

很多事情是新聞媒體沒講不是相關單位沒講

By Frederic
at 2009-11-09T16:20

1% 2% 3% 10% 預報當然預報最可能和次可能的
但有%就是有可能發生

By Eartha
at 2009-11-10T01:16

什麼時候這位大大報來聽聽?

By Daph Bay
at 2009-11-10T10:13

比喻很差勁。內文也一樣。

By Quanna
at 2009-11-10T19:09

是的「不要認為你知道的事情別人也要理所當然知道」

By Harry
at 2009-11-11T04:05

但是如果自己不知道不去問專業反而隨著外行起舞

By Belly
at 2009-11-11T13:01

這位...你打這一篇落落長就正是一般理盲的最佳代表阿

By Hedy
at 2009-11-11T21:58

都沒搞清楚就亂說,不要說專業人員,常出沒在這的版友
哪個不是一般人,如果對天氣有所需要自己難道都不用

By Susan
at 2009-11-12T06:54

把專業用語轉成白話理應是媒體的事情，不過記者...

By Eden
at 2009-11-12T15:50

先做點基本功課嗎?翹著二郎腿等別人送上門,看不懂不

By Suhail Hany
at 2009-11-13T00:46

發問,還嫌...只能說唯一100%的是理盲是存在的問題...

By Robert
at 2009-11-13T09:42

........

By Daph Bay
at 2009-11-13T18:39

不是沒有是媒體沒什麼在講吧

By David
at 2009-11-14T03:35

正名一下，是「常識盲」

By Lauren
at 2009-11-14T12:31

先說我不是要推這篇，只是想提出一點問題：
「吳德榮上次說台灣的社會是理盲」這句話的出處在哪

By Odelette
at 2009-11-14T21:27

我沒有看過他這麼說過

By Oliver
at 2009-11-15T06:23

ㄜ...真尷尬...自己GOOGLE到新聞...2009.10.8

By Zenobia
at 2009-11-15T15:20

這是常識吧=口=|||

By Olivia
at 2009-11-16T00:16

你來討噓的?

By Jack
at 2009-11-16T09:12

常識..............

By Bethany
at 2009-11-16T18:08

你是人不是神就算一群人也搞不懂老天爺

By Thomas
at 2009-11-17T03:05

要把人當神請先等那人入棺材以後再說吧

By Lauren
at 2009-11-17T12:01

如果氣象預報詳細討論所有情況...應該要報個一小時吧

By Joseph
at 2009-11-17T20:57

君不見閣下理盲濫情無知自大毫無邏輯莫此為甚

By Ivy
at 2009-11-18T05:53

看不下去

By Connor
at 2009-11-18T14:49

不好意思這裡不是數字版這裡的人不會因為你在唬爛

By Quintina
at 2009-11-18T23:46

就高潮推爆你
國小是非題都出了氣象預報不是100%準確的

By Margaret
at 2009-11-19T08:42

連預報誤差多大都不知道不就是理盲嘛這是常識

By Dinah
at 2009-11-19T17:38

還在那邊扯什麼一般人回去重讀吧

By Bennie
at 2009-11-20T02:34

告訴你老闆要笨也不是這種方法

By Vanessa
at 2009-11-20T11:31

許多人不只理盲還為理盲找到偷懶的藉口只會批評唉

By Emma
at 2009-11-20T20:27

暈倒... 國文能力有很大的問題... 該去查一下預報是

By Anonymous
at 2009-11-21T05:23

如果是百分百準的話，還要降雨機率幹麻

By Harry
at 2009-11-21T14:19

甚麼意思... 國文程度有待加強.... = ="

By Yuri
at 2009-11-21T23:15

看來不少人把氣象局當成是神就是了~~ = ="""""

By George
at 2009-11-22T08:12

無知人類說的話~~大家就饒了他吧~~別再鞭他了

By Gilbert
at 2009-11-22T17:08

樓上的手不也滑到2了嗎???XD

By Connor
at 2009-11-23T02:04

說到這個某些氣象主播的報法真的會讓人覺得實際結
果就是會照著預報內容走...

By Delia
at 2009-11-23T11:00

一般人可能就因此忽略了其他的"可能性"之類的...

By Margaret
at 2009-11-23T19:56

最後三行就是專業的傲慢

By Andrew
at 2009-11-24T04:53

100KM誤差是24HR 而且氣象局似乎是110附近

By Audriana
at 2009-11-24T13:49

推最後三行才是專業的傲慢

By Jacky
at 2009-11-24T22:45

人各有所長只能說不要用這版的瞭解度來要求一般人

By Kama
at 2009-11-25T07:41

看不下去…我鞭………

By Caroline
at 2009-11-25T16:38

不過這其實應該是媒體的問題，媒體沒辦法讓這類沒受

By Margaret
at 2009-11-26T01:34

過國民義務教育的人了解何謂「預報」...

By Callum
at 2009-11-26T10:30

以你的智慧我很難跟你解釋

By Kama
at 2009-11-26T19:26

啊國中教育好像也有教過「機率」這玩意兒...

By Jacky
at 2009-11-27T04:22

我從國中開始就知道氣象預測不是百分百正確

By Kama
at 2009-11-27T13:19

護航文

By Carol
at 2009-11-27T22:15

抱歉請問你還在唸國中嗎 @@

By Kumar
at 2009-11-28T07:11

...

By Wallis
at 2009-11-28T16:07

說的有道理

By Brianna
at 2009-11-29T01:04

報不准就因該要檢討

By Steve
at 2009-11-29T10:00

即使不準也要有所準備阿氣象局和漁農都是靠天吃飯的
誰都不想讓風災發生..

By Charlotte
at 2009-11-29T18:56

推最後三行是專業的傲慢

By Candice
at 2009-11-30T03:52

喔~~預報=100%喔為甚麼你的觀念和我差這麼遠

By Isabella
at 2009-11-30T12:48

不要跟官員一樣的腦袋好嗎官員有腦袋嗎 =_=?

By Lauren
at 2009-11-30T21:45

氣象局有報說八八颱風南部沒有豪雨嗎? 難道這樣還ꐠ

By Enid
at 2009-12-01T06:41

搞不清楚狀況，平地日雨量只要400以上就必定成災

By Catherine
at 2009-12-01T15:37

雨量估計自然要修，但是多少雨量會造成多少災害
民眾自己本身就要有這個概念了

By Rachel
at 2009-12-02T00:33

不噓不行完全狗屁不通的是你吧= =

By Elvira
at 2009-12-02T09:29

虧你還是念物理的我用膝蓋想都知道你做的東西不是
100%相容

By Dorothy
at 2009-12-02T18:26

不噓不行

By Erin
at 2009-12-03T03:22

你老闆也有問題看了幾年的天氣預報哪天不是機率?

By Barb Cronin
at 2009-12-03T12:18

如果是100%準那乾脆就告訴你幾點幾分幾秒會下雨就好

By Charlotte
at 2009-12-03T21:14

你媽生你的時候醫生有先說預產期是幾號幾時幾分幾秒?

By Susan
at 2009-12-04T06:11

恩...____無藥醫吧....

By Hazel
at 2009-12-04T15:07

你這種水準還是不要發言比較好...

By Poppy
at 2009-12-05T00:03

XDD 我手滑按到1 (這證明我很少噓人~~)

By Emily
at 2009-12-05T08:59

預報=100%準確喔?你還是閉嘴吧

By Vanessa
at 2009-12-05T17:55

先承認老闆就是你吧

By Charlie
at 2009-12-06T02:52

....

By Dinah
at 2009-12-06T11:48

理盲來了

By Christine
at 2009-12-06T20:44

是你自己程度太差吧理工出身還這樣會不會太扯了

By Anonymous
at 2009-12-07T05:40

....

By Gilbert
at 2009-12-07T14:36

._.

By Brianna
at 2009-12-07T23:33

氣象局的工作人員又不是神...百分之百想太多 = =

By Sarah
at 2009-12-08T08:29

搞不清楚狀況就跟你一樣

By Agnes
at 2009-12-08T17:25

是阿我也不知道為什麼你會這麼蠢什麼都不知道

By Dorothy
at 2009-12-09T02:21

有些該知的不知，是政府的教育出了問題

By Kyle
at 2009-12-09T11:18

By Belly
at 2009-12-09T20:14

....

By Linda
at 2009-12-10T05:10

恭喜原PO 賀喜原PO 要多一篇裂紋了嗎 XD

By Edwina
at 2009-12-10T14:06

By Rachel
at 2009-12-10T23:02

By Selena
at 2009-12-11T07:59

你自己報最準

By Bethany
at 2009-12-11T16:55

本文真是莖屁入理

By James
at 2009-12-12T01:51

第一次噓獻給你恭喜

By Carol
at 2009-12-12T10:47

我改了4.5次還是不知道該怎麼噓你耶你是在護航嗎?

By Frederica
at 2009-12-12T19:44

唉無藥可醫...

By Thomas
at 2009-12-13T04:40

喔

By Isla
at 2009-12-13T13:36

By Eden
at 2009-12-13T22:32

似是而非

By Elvira
at 2009-12-14T07:28

教育部的事怪到氣象局身上被說理盲剛剛好

By Lucy
at 2009-12-14T16:25

By Rae
at 2009-12-15T01:21

喔

By Selena
at 2009-12-15T10:17

By Catherine
at 2009-12-15T19:13

看來原PO也是受台灣媒體荼毒的受害者希望可以噓醒你

By Skylar Davis
at 2009-12-16T04:09

原來我鍵盤上的2沒壞啊~

By Catherine
at 2009-12-16T13:06

喔

By Aaliyah
at 2009-12-16T22:02

...

By Noah
at 2009-12-17T06:58

好爛的比喻

By Noah
at 2009-12-17T15:54

噓你自已專業的傲慢更替你從小到大的老師感到悲哀

By Erin
at 2009-12-18T00:51

推本來就是不然每個人犯錯後都可以找藉口下台了

By Oliver
at 2009-12-18T09:47

嗯

By Charlotte
at 2009-12-18T18:43

果然超級理盲的

By Erin
at 2009-12-19T03:39

喔

By Odelette
at 2009-12-19T12:35

台北市一天下500就可能會有災情了山區一天1300

By Lucy
at 2009-12-19T21:32

媒體以台北為中心忽略山區你也跟著忽略就是了

By Hamiltion
at 2009-12-20T06:28

沒事多讀點書~^^

By Christine
at 2009-12-20T15:24

上面有人說犯錯找藉口下台? 誰犯錯了?!!!!!!! 唉...

By Ina
at 2009-12-21T00:20

氣象局有啥問題說來聽聽

By Quintina
at 2009-12-21T09:17

你老闆哪位阿?老師有沒有教說要用譬喻法要找有名的?

By Dinah
at 2009-12-21T18:13

補刀

By Liam
at 2009-12-22T03:09

By Isla
at 2009-12-22T12:05

氣象版這麼nice 你還被噓到X7 該檢討了

By Barb Cronin
at 2009-12-22T21:01

我真的很少噓人可是看到這篇還是忍不住噓了...哎..

By Belly
at 2009-12-23T05:58

By Caroline
at 2009-12-23T14:54

By Dora
at 2009-12-23T23:50

喔

By Isla
at 2009-12-24T08:46

大氣版可以X7 還蠻屌的

By Megan
at 2009-12-24T17:42

科我噓完變X8

By Eden
at 2009-12-25T02:39

By Jake
at 2009-12-25T11:35

討噓

By Tristan Cohan
at 2009-12-25T20:31

還在幫馬戶行科科

By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2009-12-26T05:27

By Jake
at 2009-12-26T14:24

怎還沒XX 元PO真悲哀

By Emma
at 2009-12-26T23:20

By Liam
at 2009-12-27T08:16

By Zenobia
at 2009-12-27T17:12

補刀

By Catherine
at 2009-12-28T02:08

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

By Belly
at 2009-12-28T11:05

By Iris
at 2009-12-28T20:01

By Charlotte
at 2009-12-29T04:57

補刀

By Iris
at 2009-12-29T13:53

你點出了問題

By Lucy
at 2009-12-29T22:49

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

By Delia
at 2009-12-30T07:46

哈哈

By Edwina
at 2009-12-30T16:42

不噓太對不起自己了...

By Sarah
at 2009-12-31T01:38

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

By Hamiltion
at 2009-12-31T10:34

By Quintina
at 2009-12-31T19:31

閱

By Annie
at 2010-01-01T04:27

X10

By Lauren
at 2010-01-01T13:23

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

By Caroline
at 2010-01-01T22:19

By David
at 2010-01-02T07:15

討噓

By Enid
at 2010-01-02T16:12

咬你喔

By Dinah
at 2010-01-03T01:08

除了噓沒甚麼好說的!!!

By Yedda
at 2010-01-03T10:04

所以我昨天應該直接開噓不用保留囧!

By Olive
at 2010-01-03T19:00

再度補刀

By Oscar
at 2010-01-04T03:57

.................

By Margaret
at 2010-01-04T12:53

推錯= =

By Joe
at 2010-01-04T21:49

補刀

By Sierra Rose
at 2010-01-05T06:45

好慘，在氣像板被噓到XX可不容易。

By Liam
at 2010-01-05T15:41

唉又一個自以為是的人把預報當做結果的人

By Ida
at 2010-01-06T00:38

任何的預報都會有誤差的前幾次某個颱風的時候..

By Michael
at 2010-01-06T09:34

一堆網友拿日本氣象廳的預測來釘氣象局結果呢..
更不用說去年的象神劇場了所有的機構都預測錯誤

By Zenobia
at 2010-01-06T18:30

只要是預測就會有誤差就會有錯誤民眾媒體官員
對於氣象局的想法要改一下...

By Adele
at 2010-01-07T03:26

選擇性聽話

By Rae
at 2010-01-07T12:22

看一次就想噓一次.................

By Edward Lewis
at 2010-01-07T21:19

........

By Yedda
at 2010-01-08T06:15

自以為是

By Poppy
at 2010-01-08T15:11

還在耶~

By Charlotte
at 2010-01-09T00:07

當今聖上被騙了媒體就該修理CWB?

By Wallis
at 2010-01-09T09:04

第一次用...

By Olga
at 2010-01-09T18:00

唉唉...

By Annie
at 2010-01-10T02:56

慢走，不送

By Vanessa
at 2010-01-10T11:52

如果扣掉集體虛而真的有提觀點的的確很難到xx

By Liam
at 2010-01-10T20:48

雖然我也噓了..像莫拉克那次其實已經是改到日降雨量
的最高記錄~只是沒想到年降雨量這個天字號數字

By John
at 2010-01-11T05:45

"還真的"..注意是還真的就這麼下下來了..也就是說

By Tracy
at 2010-01-11T14:41

他們對於自己的疑慮很可能也擔心過度誇大的可能

By Jessica
at 2010-01-11T23:37

有時太超乎想像的事..不論過大或過小的預測都有可能

By Susan
at 2010-01-12T08:33

所以請站在人算的立場多為他們想想吧

By Jack
at 2010-01-12T17:30

.....

By Kristin
at 2010-01-13T02:26

XX了喔那繼續補噓吧...

By Joseph
at 2010-01-13T11:22

看完底下那篇後來補噓的,擺明欠噓

By Caitlin
at 2010-01-13T20:18

你好厲害喔~~

By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2010-01-14T05:14

黨工快滾

By Mason
at 2010-01-14T14:11

請不要扯政治拜託這裡是大氣版，而且可以未經同意

By Bennie
at 2010-01-14T23:07

把文章轉到八卦板嗎？

By Isabella
at 2010-01-15T08:03

我只知道都說是"預測"了當然不一定準

By Sierra Rose
at 2010-01-15T16:59

補噓

By Erin
at 2010-01-16T01:55

吳德榮退休，氣象大老：喚起社會正視預 … - 颱風討論

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