天兔颱風(2)~102/09/19 - 颱風討論

By Frederica
at 2013-09-19T19:39
at 2013-09-19T19:39
Table of Contents
準備過中秋~簡單聊一下目前的狀況~
1.天兔看來無疑問會升強颱~今年以來最強颱風將出現~
前進前方海域海水熱焓仍算是深厚~對其強度維持有利~
達到巔峰後會不會開始出現雙眼牆現象仍有待觀察~
2.今天白天這隻暴力兔如預期開始朝西北走~角度一度蠻大的~後來回到比較正西北~
北側的高壓正在持續調整~中心往東走向日本附近~同時往南伸入天兔跟98W間~
大致仍會讓天兔繼續走向西北到西北西方向~
目前整體趨勢還是有利天兔趨向恆春半島附近~會不會登陸仍是不能確定~
往西北走的越久~登陸的機會當然會越高~一切有待繼續觀察~
3.今天颱風外圍氣旋帶進來的雲層如預估的主要影響臺北基隆宜蘭花蓮一帶~
新竹以南地區看起來今晚的天氣應該是還不錯~
不過雲圖也可見天兔西北側有寬廣的外圍環流旋臂~下半夜到明晨間就會靠近東半部~
等這部分進來~降雨就會變得相當明顯而且持續性也會變好許多~
因此明天各地天氣都會進一步轉壞~自東向西擴散~
今天天氣不錯的西半部明天也會先後出現變化~開始有下雨的情況~
隨著時間越晚~天氣也將會更趨惡劣~
4.預估颱風暴風圈可能在後天周六天亮以前開始接觸東南部陸地~
颱風中心則將在周六午後到夜晚之間最靠近恆春~
如果以在恆春南方近海掠過的話~暴風圈大概會涵蓋到花蓮~彰化以南的區域~
東半部還有恆春半島有強風豪雨~雨勢應該會相當大~恆春半島至台東有很強的風~
北部地區有強偏東陣風以及陣雨現象~山區的降雨也會比較多~特別是北宜山區~
南部地區特別要注意山區的豪大雨~預估雨量也會不小~特別是靠近台東的區域~
平地的風雨則可能要等到颱風進入海峽南部~風向轉南後才會比較明顯~
中部地區這次大致都在背風面~新竹以南到雲嘉以北區域會有些降雨~但應該比較少~
中部山區也要注意較大雨勢~尤其是跟花蓮交界的區域~
當然颱風路徑如果更偏北一點~影響程度會更大~
5.預估颱風接近台灣南端時速度可能會有加快的現象~
因此周日颱風應該已經開始要遠離了~
南部東南部仍要注意偏南風到東南風帶來的降雨~其他地方的風雨將明顯趨緩~
颱風速度夠快的話~周日上午以後颱風警報可望陸續解除~
以上先簡單供參考~請大家早點做好防颱準備囉~
--
1.天兔看來無疑問會升強颱~今年以來最強颱風將出現~
前進前方海域海水熱焓仍算是深厚~對其強度維持有利~
達到巔峰後會不會開始出現雙眼牆現象仍有待觀察~
2.今天白天這隻暴力兔如預期開始朝西北走~角度一度蠻大的~後來回到比較正西北~
北側的高壓正在持續調整~中心往東走向日本附近~同時往南伸入天兔跟98W間~
大致仍會讓天兔繼續走向西北到西北西方向~
目前整體趨勢還是有利天兔趨向恆春半島附近~會不會登陸仍是不能確定~
往西北走的越久~登陸的機會當然會越高~一切有待繼續觀察~
3.今天颱風外圍氣旋帶進來的雲層如預估的主要影響臺北基隆宜蘭花蓮一帶~
新竹以南地區看起來今晚的天氣應該是還不錯~
不過雲圖也可見天兔西北側有寬廣的外圍環流旋臂~下半夜到明晨間就會靠近東半部~
等這部分進來~降雨就會變得相當明顯而且持續性也會變好許多~
因此明天各地天氣都會進一步轉壞~自東向西擴散~
今天天氣不錯的西半部明天也會先後出現變化~開始有下雨的情況~
隨著時間越晚~天氣也將會更趨惡劣~
4.預估颱風暴風圈可能在後天周六天亮以前開始接觸東南部陸地~
颱風中心則將在周六午後到夜晚之間最靠近恆春~
如果以在恆春南方近海掠過的話~暴風圈大概會涵蓋到花蓮~彰化以南的區域~
東半部還有恆春半島有強風豪雨~雨勢應該會相當大~恆春半島至台東有很強的風~
北部地區有強偏東陣風以及陣雨現象~山區的降雨也會比較多~特別是北宜山區~
南部地區特別要注意山區的豪大雨~預估雨量也會不小~特別是靠近台東的區域~
平地的風雨則可能要等到颱風進入海峽南部~風向轉南後才會比較明顯~
中部地區這次大致都在背風面~新竹以南到雲嘉以北區域會有些降雨~但應該比較少~
中部山區也要注意較大雨勢~尤其是跟花蓮交界的區域~
當然颱風路徑如果更偏北一點~影響程度會更大~
5.預估颱風接近台灣南端時速度可能會有加快的現象~
因此周日颱風應該已經開始要遠離了~
南部東南部仍要注意偏南風到東南風帶來的降雨~其他地方的風雨將明顯趨緩~
颱風速度夠快的話~周日上午以後颱風警報可望陸續解除~
以上先簡單供參考~請大家早點做好防颱準備囉~
--
Tags:
颱風
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