天氣小觀:97W發展慢,輻合;97W速成颱,共伴 - 颱風討論

By Wallis
at 2022-10-14T12:41
at 2022-10-14T12:41
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:97W發展慢,輻合降雨;97W速成颱,共伴降雨
目前台灣大氣最關心的就是秋季大氣地面秀輪到台灣,
由於西風帶南移,東亞西風槽頻頻,太平洋高壓脊位於台灣東方,
南方的海溫仍高,熱帶擾動有機會發展為颱風,
因此,就像春季大氣高空秀的壓軸有梅雨,
秋季大氣地面秀也有壓軸的共伴效應。
共伴效應當然就是指秋颱的共伴效應,
但對台灣來說,不用過度擔心,因為這條件是有難度的。
秋颱共伴簡單說就是:冷高壓+颱風;西風槽+太平洋高壓+颱風
看似一般,但實際細節很多,
1. 首要條件在地面場,
共伴當然是北方地面場要有明顯的冷高壓中心,南方要有颱風,
冷高壓中心吹出的東北季風+颱風外圍環流=>形成穩定的地面噴流。
2. 符合以上1.就至少是類共伴,
但要符合秋颱共伴條件還需要高空配置到位,
也就是大氣中層:北方西風槽,東方太平洋高壓,南方颱風,
三者連線成秋季大三角(槽底+高壓中心+颱風中心): |>
如果是秋季四邊形<|>也可以:北方西風槽,東西方副熱帶高壓中心,南方颱風。
3. 最後如果海溫配合,北方海溫低,南方海溫高,則共伴會更持久。
然而,
原本模式認為97W目前順著太平洋高壓引導往西,並且"發展起來"
發展起來首先就是高度的突破,太平洋高壓引導被97W成颱與西風槽力壓而讓出空間,
符合北槽,東高壓,南颱的共伴條件;
但,
目前看起來97W發展較慢,則西風槽南壓只會令太平洋高壓變薄,
97W無法突破北側的太平洋高壓場,被太平洋高壓引導偏西至台灣海峽南部,
搭不上西風槽南壓的時間點,反而被西方的副高引導繼續偏西,
同時地面場因太過接近華南沿岸,被東北季風摧毀力道重擊,快速減弱,
如此一來,秋颱共伴就不存在或不明顯了。
總之先看97W發展情況再說囉,這就是為何秋季大氣神鬼莫測的特性了..
(以上供參囉)
--
目前台灣大氣最關心的就是秋季大氣地面秀輪到台灣,
由於西風帶南移,東亞西風槽頻頻,太平洋高壓脊位於台灣東方,
南方的海溫仍高,熱帶擾動有機會發展為颱風,
因此,就像春季大氣高空秀的壓軸有梅雨,
秋季大氣地面秀也有壓軸的共伴效應。
共伴效應當然就是指秋颱的共伴效應,
但對台灣來說,不用過度擔心,因為這條件是有難度的。
秋颱共伴簡單說就是:冷高壓+颱風;西風槽+太平洋高壓+颱風
看似一般,但實際細節很多,
1. 首要條件在地面場,
共伴當然是北方地面場要有明顯的冷高壓中心,南方要有颱風,
冷高壓中心吹出的東北季風+颱風外圍環流=>形成穩定的地面噴流。
2. 符合以上1.就至少是類共伴,
但要符合秋颱共伴條件還需要高空配置到位,
也就是大氣中層:北方西風槽,東方太平洋高壓,南方颱風,
三者連線成秋季大三角(槽底+高壓中心+颱風中心): |>
如果是秋季四邊形<|>也可以:北方西風槽,東西方副熱帶高壓中心,南方颱風。
3. 最後如果海溫配合,北方海溫低,南方海溫高,則共伴會更持久。
然而,
原本模式認為97W目前順著太平洋高壓引導往西,並且"發展起來"
發展起來首先就是高度的突破,太平洋高壓引導被97W成颱與西風槽力壓而讓出空間,
符合北槽,東高壓,南颱的共伴條件;
但,
目前看起來97W發展較慢,則西風槽南壓只會令太平洋高壓變薄,
97W無法突破北側的太平洋高壓場,被太平洋高壓引導偏西至台灣海峽南部,
搭不上西風槽南壓的時間點,反而被西方的副高引導繼續偏西,
同時地面場因太過接近華南沿岸,被東北季風摧毀力道重擊,快速減弱,
如此一來,秋颱共伴就不存在或不明顯了。
總之先看97W發展情況再說囉,這就是為何秋季大氣神鬼莫測的特性了..
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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