天氣小觀：杰拉華颱風重點 侵台？秋颱？ - 颱風討論
By Daniel
at 2012-09-22T09:08
at 2012-09-22T09:08
Table of Contents
<以下盡量淺白說明>
對流層高空層(8000公尺高空)
象徵冬季系統的西風噴流持續強烈地與夏季系統南亞高壓對峙，
西風噴流在東海往南壓，在東海一帶生波，
南亞高壓強烈地與北方西風噴流對峙，
使得南亞高壓北側的西風增強，並增強南亞高壓順時針旋轉的負渦度，
南亞高壓在自己地盤(中南半島北方)增強，且往下影響到對流層中層(5000公尺高空)，
台灣到中南半島上的大氣中層出現反氣旋高壓系統，也使太平洋高壓脊西伸接合，
因此前兩天台灣天氣大致良好炎熱。
但是今天起大氣中層太平洋高壓已經開始斷裂颱風，杰拉華颱風走向趨勢將轉北。
雖然在大氣中低層(3000公尺高空)，太平洋高壓脊尚延伸到台灣至香港還未斷裂，
但是很快受到太平洋高壓在中層斷裂以及北方槽線下探和南壓，
因此也即將斷裂，太平洋高壓斷裂後的西側小單體會往西減弱或併入中層的反氣旋高壓。
模式預報西風噴流在東海生波，東海西風槽牽引杰拉華往北，
但因西風槽偏東且往東移，因此杰拉華颱風北上至台灣東南方後，
轉由台灣到中南半島上大氣中層的反氣旋高壓系統接手，使杰拉華颱風轉由偏西移動。
GFS預報：直接偏西北侵襲台灣南部。
NGP/EC預報：直接偏西侵襲呂宋島。
CWB等其他預報：北上至呂宋島東方，觀察中。
--
對流層高空層(8000公尺高空)
象徵冬季系統的西風噴流持續強烈地與夏季系統南亞高壓對峙，
西風噴流在東海往南壓，在東海一帶生波，
南亞高壓強烈地與北方西風噴流對峙，
使得南亞高壓北側的西風增強，並增強南亞高壓順時針旋轉的負渦度，
南亞高壓在自己地盤(中南半島北方)增強，且往下影響到對流層中層(5000公尺高空)，
台灣到中南半島上的大氣中層出現反氣旋高壓系統，也使太平洋高壓脊西伸接合，
因此前兩天台灣天氣大致良好炎熱。
但是今天起大氣中層太平洋高壓已經開始斷裂颱風，杰拉華颱風走向趨勢將轉北。
雖然在大氣中低層(3000公尺高空)，太平洋高壓脊尚延伸到台灣至香港還未斷裂，
但是很快受到太平洋高壓在中層斷裂以及北方槽線下探和南壓，
因此也即將斷裂，太平洋高壓斷裂後的西側小單體會往西減弱或併入中層的反氣旋高壓。
模式預報西風噴流在東海生波，東海西風槽牽引杰拉華往北，
但因西風槽偏東且往東移，因此杰拉華颱風北上至台灣東南方後，
轉由台灣到中南半島上大氣中層的反氣旋高壓系統接手，使杰拉華颱風轉由偏西移動。
GFS預報：直接偏西北侵襲台灣南部。
NGP/EC預報：直接偏西侵襲呂宋島。
CWB等其他預報：北上至呂宋島東方，觀察中。
--
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颱風
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