天氣小觀:蘇迪勒接近;夏冬大氣系統第一戰 - 颱風討論

By Candice
at 2015-08-02T09:04
at 2015-08-02T09:04
Table of Contents
天氣小觀:蘇迪勒接近;夏冬大氣系統第一戰
自從北半球夏季系統開始掌控後,北方的清涼和南方熱情的天氣。
不過,
進入八月,整個大氣系統又開始準備進入過渡期。
一切就從北極渦旋復活後的徵兆。
目前,南亞高壓中心穩定的位於青藏高原附近,
高壓場往東西擴展,北球球高空夏季高壓的分布
從西太平洋到東非北緯20~40度的位置,
整個西風帶平均緯線退到北緯40度以北。
不過模式預報,未來一周,
南亞高壓受到挑戰,源頭來自於北極區冷空氣釋出。
未來一周北極渦旋強度又往上增強了。
北極冷源勢力建立起來,而且冷氣團並不安份,
一周後期往外攻擊,鎖定北亞。
在大氣高空,冷渦旋分裂中心進入西伯利亞中西部,
與由歐洲副極地東移的冷空氣疊加,
使當地出現一波降溫,中亞地區也受到冷空氣影響,由炎熱轉為涼爽。
在大氣對流高層,預報未來一周,
從北極渦旋勢力分裂出的冷渦旋一路殺到西伯利亞,
並且槽區向北緯40度延伸,西風噴流往南壓向北緯40度,
挑戰到中心位於青藏高原的南亞高壓。
南亞高壓被迫重新調整勢力分布來應戰,
中心向西南退一些,反渦旋場分布為東西橢圓狹長型
全力阻擋西風噴流南壓。
這個第一戰,夏季系統最高層的南亞高壓盡責的阻擋冬季系統的攻擊。
而夏季中層的太平洋高壓,未來一周主要則忙著與颱風玩遊戲。
模式預報看來,
一周前期,高壓勢力穩定,北方沒有較強的西風槽勢力影響,
因此,颱風北面都是穩定的東西分布的太平洋高壓牆,
颱風穩定偏西移動。
一周後期,要看日本上空的高壓單體,
預報東亞未來一周沒有明顯冷空氣,
後期雖然因中太平洋的槽線(熱帶對流層高層槽引起)影響太平洋高壓分布,
但是日本高壓單體仍然維持。
導致颱風即使偏西北,但也不至於轉北,
甚至也有的認為颱風偏西登陸台灣的預報。
因此,蘇迪勒颱風本周起的動向非常重要。
不過盛夏季節,北面的夏季高壓壓的很兇,高空輻散場容易受到影響。
颱風通常都是按部就班的增強,比較少猛爆型的增強。
(以上供參囉)
--
自從北半球夏季系統開始掌控後,北方的清涼和南方熱情的天氣。
不過,
進入八月,整個大氣系統又開始準備進入過渡期。
一切就從北極渦旋復活後的徵兆。
目前,南亞高壓中心穩定的位於青藏高原附近,
高壓場往東西擴展,北球球高空夏季高壓的分布
從西太平洋到東非北緯20~40度的位置,
整個西風帶平均緯線退到北緯40度以北。
不過模式預報,未來一周,
南亞高壓受到挑戰,源頭來自於北極區冷空氣釋出。
未來一周北極渦旋強度又往上增強了。
北極冷源勢力建立起來,而且冷氣團並不安份,
一周後期往外攻擊,鎖定北亞。
在大氣高空,冷渦旋分裂中心進入西伯利亞中西部,
與由歐洲副極地東移的冷空氣疊加,
使當地出現一波降溫,中亞地區也受到冷空氣影響,由炎熱轉為涼爽。
在大氣對流高層,預報未來一周,
從北極渦旋勢力分裂出的冷渦旋一路殺到西伯利亞,
並且槽區向北緯40度延伸,西風噴流往南壓向北緯40度,
挑戰到中心位於青藏高原的南亞高壓。
南亞高壓被迫重新調整勢力分布來應戰,
中心向西南退一些,反渦旋場分布為東西橢圓狹長型
全力阻擋西風噴流南壓。
這個第一戰,夏季系統最高層的南亞高壓盡責的阻擋冬季系統的攻擊。
而夏季中層的太平洋高壓,未來一周主要則忙著與颱風玩遊戲。
模式預報看來,
一周前期,高壓勢力穩定,北方沒有較強的西風槽勢力影響,
因此,颱風北面都是穩定的東西分布的太平洋高壓牆,
颱風穩定偏西移動。
一周後期,要看日本上空的高壓單體,
預報東亞未來一周沒有明顯冷空氣,
後期雖然因中太平洋的槽線(熱帶對流層高層槽引起)影響太平洋高壓分布,
但是日本高壓單體仍然維持。
導致颱風即使偏西北,但也不至於轉北,
甚至也有的認為颱風偏西登陸台灣的預報。
因此,蘇迪勒颱風本周起的動向非常重要。
不過盛夏季節,北面的夏季高壓壓的很兇,高空輻散場容易受到影響。
颱風通常都是按部就班的增強,比較少猛爆型的增強。
(以上供參囉)
--
Tags:
颱風
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