天鵝颱風1031 - 颱風討論

Dora avatar
By Dora
at 2020-10-31T20:22

Table of Contents


目前各國強度:

JTWC:155kts 900hPa
CWB: 63m/s 890hPa
JMA:115kts 900hPa
CMA:68m/s 905hPa

天鵝颱風在今天進行了一次非常不可思議的眼牆換置

從昨天傍晚的微波掃描:
http://i.imgur.com/Jixy1Wd.jpg

跟SMAP風速掃描:
http://i.imgur.com/xRofJkg.jpg

已經可以看到明顯的雙眼結構

但在之後這段期間,天鵝除了眼溫略降外沒有其他的減弱跡象,CDO維持的很完整
https://imgur.com/i7xllgt

凌晨的微波掃描則可以看的經過了數個小時後內眼牆仍絲毫沒有減弱的跡象
http://i.imgur.com/LFGUnvU.jpg

到了清晨還是沒有減弱的跡象,內眼繼續強勢
http://i.imgur.com/2d6thvX.jpg

直到今天早上對流快速衰退 眼溫下降,眼牆換置正式開始
https://imgur.com/TRtIB0m


中午時分的微波掃描雙眼非常明顯:
http://i.imgur.com/3UzHpp5.jpg

此時從衛星雲圖也可以明顯看到內眼牆因繞著外眼牆打轉造成的進動現象



但僅過了一個多小時,CDO對流就再次爆發,同時內眼的進動現象也消失了

到了下午三點多的微波掃描,已經沒有雙眼牆的跡象
http://i.imgur.com/TEyEqyO.jpg

種種跡象顯示了天鵝在短短幾個小時內就完成了眼牆換置


簡單來說,天鵝過去24小時出現了兩個有趣的現象:

1.內眼牆異常持久的維持度

2.極為迅速的眼牆換置過程


這兩個現象在過去莫蘭蒂颱風、山竹颱風及利奇馬颱風都有出現過

而這幾個颱風的共同點就是所處的海洋環境極為優秀,下墊面的暖水層非常深厚,且外眼牆形成時和內眼牆之間的Moat間隔很窄

可能就是因為這樣,使得內眼牆在被外眼牆阻斷內流時仍可由海洋獲得足夠的潛熱能量維持強度,過窄的Moat也會使部分的內流仍可進入內眼繼續供應水氣維持WISHE機制


而強勢的內眼產生之次環流也會抑制外眼的發展,使外眼牆增強緩慢,無法有效削減內眼的勢力發展。

直到某些契機(ex.內眼下墊面的海洋不夠溫暖了、外眼的慣性穩定度終於大到讓內流無法再進入)使內眼終於被壓抑,此時優秀的環境將使得外眼得以快速發展並迅速取代掉內眼,也就是我們所看到的極速換眼了

以上是我個人推測啦,實際到底如何還得用WRF模式跑跑看才會知道到底是不是真的





最後來簡單分析一下天鵝的所處環境。

天鵝運氣真的非常好:

1.東風波出身,環流細小

2.MJO濕相位在卡在海洋大陸近一個月後終於東傳至西北太平洋,使天鵝能在離陸地較遠的地方形成,有別於之前的沙德爾和莫拉菲颱風

3.所經過的海域在經過整年的太陽曝曬後至在天鵝前沒有颱風通過,暖水層非常深厚

4.剛好遇上北方槽線南下,不但帶來了槽前噴流,還使本身已是夕陽餘暉的南亞高壓勢力向西調整,使其讓出更多空間不再能壓制天鵝的極向流出,最終使得天鵝能享有全方位的輻散流出通道

5.副熱帶高壓穩定控制,使得天鵝所處的位置垂直風向變化穩定,風切非常微弱


超厚暖水+全方位輻散+微弱垂直風切,造就了這隻奇蹟的天鵝

昨天下午的天鵝增強堪稱瘋狂,眼區拼命縮小,要知道眼牆具有非常強的慣性穩定度,要有非常強烈的底層輻合內流才能做到,可見高空輻散有多麼出色
http://i.imgur.com/LG47aIC.jpg


目前剛換置完的天鵝高層結構還在調整,所處的海洋暖水層仍十分深厚,高空持續有全方位的流出通道,垂直風切依然微弱,有沒有機會在登陸菲律賓前再創奇蹟,是有這個機會的

今晚又是個不眠之夜...




-----
Sent from JPTT on my Asus ASUS_Z017DA.

--
https://i.imgur.com/sPq3s2S.jpg

Explosion!!!!!!!!!!

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Tags: 颱風

All Comments

Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2020-11-05T12:37
天鵝南軍站出來
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2020-11-10T04:52
看ADT定位應該已經走到14.2N 126.5E 南起來
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2020-11-14T21:06
JTWC 06Z預測最南就是走到14.2N 再南下去就好玩了
Emma avatar
By Emma
at 2020-11-19T13:21
有旁邊的閃電加持 怎弱
Edwina avatar
By Edwina
at 2020-11-24T05:36
閃電快被榨乾了
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2020-11-28T21:51
又再一次見證歷史
Emma avatar
By Emma
at 2020-12-03T14:06
鵝鵝搶衣服中 XD
Hedwig avatar
By Hedwig
at 2020-12-08T06:21
https://imgur.com/yXoxqvP.jpg
鵝鵝的CDG已經成環...看能不能挑戰合格的環
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2020-12-12T22:36
覺得鵝鵝的成颱史非常勵志耶 原先機構認為的雜魚而
Faithe avatar
By Faithe
at 2020-12-17T14:51
把期望值放在閃電...結果鵝鵝展翅高飛 高貴又優雅
Zanna avatar
By Zanna
at 2020-12-22T07:06
JMA 12Z一口氣把閃電五天後位置北調了約250KM
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2020-12-26T23:21
天鵝南軍獲勝 = 閃電北軍獲勝
https://i.imgur.com/8IFXvLo.png
Dorothy avatar
By Dorothy
at 2020-12-31T15:36
JMA這位置(沒彎下去)就有機會擦過台灣最南端/登陸
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2021-01-05T07:51
中間還拐一下是怎麼回事 XD
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2021-01-10T00:05
五天後強度給28M/S 還算保守 應該有機會到中颱下限
Candice avatar
By Candice
at 2021-01-14T16:20
2號暴力鵝到南海減弱成呆頭鵝 閃電剛好往東北小轉
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2021-01-19T08:35
https://imgur.com/a/OPgAzNh 說不定走巴士海峽
Aaliyah avatar
By Aaliyah
at 2021-01-24T00:50
天鵝如果南落到比JMA預測的13.5N還南邊 閃電就有機
會繼續往北修 有機會修到登陸台東以北 當然希望是
能登陸花蓮以北 讓南部以外的中部也能補點水
Dorothy avatar
By Dorothy
at 2021-01-28T17:05
11/2東北風南下會跟閃電正面對決
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2021-02-02T09:20
但也不能修太多 北修過頭會直接轉向東北
Lucy avatar
By Lucy
at 2021-02-07T01:35
最好的劇本就是修到登陸花蓮 新竹出海這樣 中部也能
補點水
Hardy avatar
By Hardy
at 2021-02-11T17:50
繼續看下去 短時間的觀察重點不在閃電 而在天鵝南落
程度會到哪邊 這才是影響閃電走勢的重點
Olive avatar
By Olive
at 2021-02-16T10:05
鵝鵝如果南修到穿越菲中群島的話 越南要小心了
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2021-02-21T02:20
補貼 上上篇文貼過的GFS近4報變化趨勢 就能看出來
https://i.imgur.com/xuQnNN9.gif
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2021-02-25T18:35
好像連帶加強了一點東風 今天台北東側有飄雨...
George avatar
By George
at 2021-03-02T10:50
天鵝短期走勢愈偏南 會導致閃電短期整合位置愈偏北
Audriana avatar
By Audriana
at 2021-03-07T03:04
所以JMA才大幅北修
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2021-03-11T19:19
晚上宜蘭報晴天結果現在下雨
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2021-03-16T11:34
可能跟天鵝太強連帶增強台灣附近的東風剃度,導致
空氣沒有比預期乾了
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2021-03-21T03:49
南落到14.1N https://i.imgur.com/UcFSRJ9.gif
JTWC嚴重低估天鵝南落程度 抓不準天鵝短期走勢 會
Steve avatar
By Steve
at 2021-03-25T20:04
導致12Z JTWC應該也會像JMA一樣大幅修正閃電的預測
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2021-03-30T12:19
兩隻太近 一隻抓不準 另外一隻就不會准
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2021-04-04T04:34
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2021-04-08T20:49
CWB 06Z https://i.imgur.com/uvLVkmc.png
Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2021-04-13T13:04
CWB 12Z https://i.imgur.com/zsWBwyx.png
比JMA偏南 不過還是同樣北修
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2021-04-18T05:19
天鵝還是維持63 超猛
Suhail Hany avatar
By Suhail Hany
at 2021-04-22T21:34
眼牆置換後暴風圈擴大20KM
Isla avatar
By Isla
at 2021-04-27T13:49
實際上現在大概55~58 CWB標準
Kristin avatar
By Kristin
at 2021-05-02T06:03
CWB:65m/s !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Doris avatar
By Doris
at 2021-05-06T22:18
氣壓888hPa
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2021-05-11T14:33
太神了啦888hpa
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2021-05-16T06:48
超猛!
Todd Johnson avatar
By Todd Johnson
at 2021-05-20T23:03
要破狄普的記錄了嗎?
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2021-05-25T15:18
這.....超越海燕了吧......
Andrew avatar
By Andrew
at 2021-05-30T07:33
感謝閃電貢獻
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2021-06-03T23:48
天鵝超越2010年的梅姬颱風成為CWB改用10分鐘平均風
速以來最強的颱風
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2021-06-08T16:03
菲中的東米沙鄢的獨魯萬25萬人請保重
Hamiltion avatar
By Hamiltion
at 2021-06-13T08:18
太扯啦!!竟然能在CWB看到這種數字
Sarah avatar
By Sarah
at 2021-06-18T00:33
CWB的地面天氣圖也改成有顏色版了
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2021-06-22T16:48
八成要掰掰被除名了
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2021-06-27T09:02
老天鵝:大家888888
Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2021-07-02T01:17
http://i.imgur.com/HMihmek.jpg
SMAP今天傍晚的掃描:十分鐘平均154kts
Skylar Davis avatar
By Skylar Davis
at 2021-07-06T17:32
888太神拉
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2021-07-11T09:47
換算成一分鐘平均的話超過170kts
Edith avatar
By Edith
at 2021-07-16T02:02
888hPa!! 留名
Isabella avatar
By Isabella
at 2021-07-20T18:17
只期待閃電輕颱花東登陸 竹苗出海
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2021-07-25T10:32
CWB一枝獨秀,不是特別厲害就是來亂
Ina avatar
By Ina
at 2021-07-30T02:47
神奇的888/65 看到以為眼花
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2021-08-03T19:02
媽 我在這
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2021-08-08T11:17
來留名拉 不過颱風強度榜刷新速度這麼快真令人擔心
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2021-08-13T03:32
888...(怕
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2021-08-17T19:47
整麼會升強度R 眼還沒完全清空耶
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2021-08-22T12:01
http://i.imgur.com/MycAkoY.jpg
AMSU掃中了 這次應該是適合分析的狀態
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2021-08-27T04:16
下午沒降強度 現在明顯再增強就只好升了XD
Ursula avatar
By Ursula
at 2021-08-31T20:31
卡大說T值8.0了
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2021-09-05T12:46
指的是CWB現在就是分析T8.0 給出滿分強度吧
Rosalind avatar
By Rosalind
at 2021-09-10T05:01
CMG+OW能分析T8.0也是人才
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2021-09-14T21:16
cwb現在在使用ci最高8.5的新德法嗎?
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2021-09-19T13:31
888留名
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2021-09-24T05:46
下午朋友回報松山機場一帶有下雨
Una avatar
By Una
at 2021-09-28T22:01
這強度........只能說天佑菲律賓了
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2021-10-03T14:16
正規德法沒有8.5
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2021-10-08T06:31
這樣給的很奇怪耶.....只能說情人眼裡出西施
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2021-10-12T22:46
也可能不是參考德法
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2021-10-17T15:00
888留名
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2021-10-22T07:15
而且CWB的定強本來就很隨性,沒有公開德法分析數字
,也沒有對應表
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2021-10-26T23:30
菲撐的住嗎
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2021-10-31T15:45
留名...太扯
Mia avatar
By Mia
at 2021-11-05T08:00
第一次看見 888 ,真的要破海燕了?
Mia avatar
By Mia
at 2021-11-10T00:15
留名 !!
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2021-11-14T16:30
會不會上70就超猛了XD
Barb Cronin avatar
By Barb Cronin
at 2021-11-19T08:45
德法最高只能到8.0,官方強度會增加應該是考慮了其
他資料
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2021-11-24T01:00
888也不知道是不是用啥公式對應的
那就是8.0照搬了,但這種小系統是否能下900很難說
Genevieve avatar
By Genevieve
at 2021-11-28T17:15
有吧 CWB的8.0記得就是對映888hpa
https://bit.ly/35PUSXg
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2021-12-03T09:30
還好 參考1987的Betty理論上900-沒啥問題 890大
概就極限了
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2021-12-08T01:45
但風速對不上
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2021-12-12T17:59
本報JTWC給的是904
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2021-12-17T10:14
所以我才覺得應該是有參考其他資料
風速的部分啦 氣壓CWB應該就照表對應
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2021-12-22T02:29
JTWC應該是套KZC公式
Rae avatar
By Rae
at 2021-12-26T18:44
這就要講到卡諾熱機了,極限大約是880HPa左右
Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2021-12-31T10:59
菲律賓的雷達是不是能掃到風眼了
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-01-05T03:14
這大概要拿有實測的2010梅姬來比較一下
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2022-01-09T19:29
JTWC就是套公式了,不然照對應是給901
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-01-14T11:44
不過套公式也是比照抄對應表好就是XD
George avatar
By George
at 2022-01-19T03:59
分享一下天氣風險閃電監測網看到的
Rosalind avatar
By Rosalind
at 2022-01-23T20:14
另外其實8點前後有幾次眼溫跳動到WMG,硬要給8.0其
實也是可以
Faithe avatar
By Faithe
at 2022-01-28T12:29
https://i.imgur.com/ce4pguU.png
眼牆的閃電訊號在晚間一直都是成環的噴發
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2022-02-02T04:44
說實話CWB的強度一點參考價值都沒有
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2022-02-06T20:58
原來是在說CWB訂的...誤會了
我也覺得除了發警報的 其他都判定的很隨興
Todd Johnson avatar
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-02-11T13:13
明天開始侵襲菲律賓要開始減弱了
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2022-02-16T05:28
本來就是阿XD 一點定強標準都沒有
JMA跟CMA都會公布德法分析數據,JTWC還會說明定強理
Jacky avatar
By Jacky
at 2022-02-20T21:43
就CWB每次都突然冒一個數字XD
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2022-02-25T13:58
不過CWB本來就沒多著墨在強度分析上,他們比較重視
路徑預報就是
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2022-03-02T06:13
想起了不久前辣個日本升格但是CWB認真評估後認定還
沒成颱的“TD”
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-03-06T22:28
當然不會著墨強度分析, 不然 CWB 要怎麼"動態"調降
Rachel avatar
By Rachel
at 2022-03-11T14:43
要侵台的颱風強度? XD
Poppy avatar
By Poppy
at 2022-03-16T06:58
閃電終於也要開始做事變成閃電風暴了嗎
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2022-03-20T23:13
如果閃電再來補個水,就是最完美的劇本了
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2022-03-25T15:28
SATCON https://i.imgur.com/lCTQCTx.gif
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2022-03-30T07:43
888?
Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2022-04-03T23:57
閃電不知有沒有機會碰到台灣
Gary avatar
By Gary
at 2022-04-08T16:12
衛星雲圖後面連續好多雲團!
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-04-13T08:27
風場掃描顯示閃電的風場終於閉合了 明天開始應該
會逐漸發展
Jacky avatar
By Jacky
at 2022-04-18T00:42
見證歷史
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2022-04-22T16:57
888留名
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2022-04-27T09:12
朝聖留名
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2022-05-02T01:27
請問11/4-6要爬山的話會被閃電影響而下雨嗎
看目前預報好像還好
Quintina avatar
By Quintina
at 2022-05-06T17:42
朝聖留名
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-05-11T09:57
看大氣版快17年了 沒看過這麼強的 朝聖 888
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2022-05-16T02:12
希望閃電能帶來適量的風雨...補一下缺水的地方...
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-05-20T18:27
天鵝太屌
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2022-05-25T10:42
留名
Dorothy avatar
By Dorothy
at 2022-05-30T02:56
這真的是破天荒的猛
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2022-06-03T19:11
888豪可怕
Puput avatar
By Puput
at 2022-06-08T11:26
好猛
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2022-06-13T03:41
888+65留名!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-06-17T19:56
醜小鴨變得
Valerie avatar
By Valerie
at 2022-06-22T12:11
天鵝太強啦!
Doris avatar
By Doris
at 2022-06-27T04:26
美國跟日本怎都還是一樣強度 明顯低估
Kyle avatar
By Kyle
at 2022-07-01T20:41
888
Gary avatar
By Gary
at 2022-07-06T12:56
阿眼就不穩 沒法給阿
Damian avatar
By Damian
at 2022-07-11T05:11
有沒有颶風獵人要過去的信息?
Victoria avatar
By Victoria
at 2022-07-15T21:26
888.....瞬間風速80 有夠噁心...
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2022-07-20T13:41
疫情 不可能去
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-07-25T05:55
見證奇蹟
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2022-07-29T22:10
最佳路徑大概會上修吧(望
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2022-08-03T14:25
BST如果按照19年那樣說不定170
Blanche avatar
By Blanche
at 2022-08-08T06:40
888hPa 留名!!!
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2022-08-12T22:55
朝聖大天鵝!
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2022-08-17T15:10
搞不好登陸前一刻有機會挑戰880......
Emma avatar
By Emma
at 2022-08-22T07:25
888留名
Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2022-08-26T23:40
888 CWB覺得比海燕強?
Tom avatar
By Tom
at 2022-08-31T15:55
其實我想問的是 為何質疑美國和日本明顯低估 反而只
相信CWB給的規格?
Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2022-09-05T08:10
鳥類颱風都不能小覷
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2022-09-10T00:25
各家機構對於強度的看法有差異是正常 但美日目前只
給這樣應該有其他理由...
Ida avatar
By Ida
at 2022-09-14T16:40
閃電衣服好像穿回來了
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2022-09-19T08:54
CWB說過每個颱風都是個案 不能直接比
Joseph avatar
By Joseph
at 2022-09-24T01:09
閃電衣服穿回來了 期待一下~
Lucy avatar
By Lucy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
如果天鵝來台灣應該會頗慘
Lauren avatar
By Lauren
at 2022-09-24T19:49
http://i.imgur.com/OnruAlm.jpg
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2022-09-20T03:34
http://i.imgur.com/2857LFg.jpg
怪物...............................
我很確定我沒點錯色階...
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
留名!!!
Rosalind avatar
By Rosalind
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/QArm1iF.jpg windy 這兩天都無
法如實反映天鵝的強度,是windy 壞了還ec/gfs 數據
壞了啊?
Sarah avatar
By Sarah
at 2022-09-24T19:49
模式初始場問題
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
上上面那張有深咖啡色的是雲頂溫度嗎
Blanche avatar
By Blanche
at 2022-09-24T19:49
不是 這是中層的
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-09-20T03:34
HWRF 12Z北調 向JMA主觀預測靠攏
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這張還好吧 最低210 看不出啥
Audriana avatar
By Audriana
at 2022-09-20T03:34
AMSU分析出181kt 898hpa
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2022-09-24T19:49
SATCON也給174KTS
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/c2bH5hd.gif
天鵝繼續比預期南偏就對了 目前已來到13.8N 直接比
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2022-09-24T19:49
等等看老J了要不要參考了
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2022-09-20T03:34
JTWC 12Z預測的最南邊13.9N還要低了
天鵝南軍站出來
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2022-09-24T19:49
天鵝愈偏南 代表兩者的互動程度(比預測)愈明顯
就會讓閃電短期整合位置愈北偏 = 閃電北軍的勝利
Lucy avatar
By Lucy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
希望天鵝能南落到 破JMA的13.5N防線
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2022-09-24T19:49
破這個值 閃電走台東以北登陸機會就能提升了
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
天鵝越偏南,閃電到台灣機率越大嗎
Catherine avatar
By Catherine
at 2022-09-24T19:49

但閃電就算繼續北調 也不能太過頭 北調過頭會直接
轉東北
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
菲菲保重,閃電帶水來吧拜託
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2022-09-24T19:49
SATCON 174kts和AMSU 181kts已經雙雙打破莫蘭蒂創下
的173/179kts紀錄了...
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
不負責猜測等等JTWC參考SATCON和ADT給165knots
Heather avatar
By Heather
at 2022-09-24T19:49
眼大一點還是有好處的 也歸功於AMSU這報完全掃正
Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2022-09-20T03:34
HWRF 12Z開獎到+84H 粗估比06Z北調100KM出頭
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2022-09-24T19:49
眼也在清空 我猜老J直接上170XD
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2022-09-20T03:34
HWRF 06Z又比00Z北調150KM 統合目前各家數值
Mary avatar
By Mary
at 2022-09-24T19:49
我不敢猜170啦 現在眼時好時壞,純德法分析可能就7.
0-7.5,如果老J也參考的話就不太可能給到170
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-20T03:34
XD
但正報170阿...現在感覺就是夢迴2013那個夜晚了
Isla avatar
By Isla
at 2022-09-24T19:49
神串留名
Doris avatar
By Doris
at 2022-09-20T03:34
不過這2顛我沒很喜歡就是了 沒有一顛來的驚艷
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2022-09-24T19:49
離觸陸剩下一點點時間了
Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2022-09-20T03:34
二顛剛開始原本以為要幹大事了,結果眼一直清不空蠻
可惜的
William avatar
By William
at 2022-09-24T19:49
但一顛真的很可怕,Pactricia等級的水氣,尼伯特等
級的風眼和眼牆,哈吉貝式的ERI...
Wallis avatar
By Wallis
at 2022-09-20T03:34
眼附近一直爆對流,輻散不夠強
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-24T19:49
91w加油呀
Ina avatar
By Ina
at 2022-09-20T03:34
JTWC:T8.0
準備迎接久違7年的正報170knots
Erin avatar
By Erin
at 2022-09-24T19:49
JMA CI 8.0
Dorothy avatar
By Dorothy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
JMA分析除PT7.5外,CI DT MET FT都8.0
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2022-09-24T19:49
JTWC還沒分析
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2022-09-20T03:34
我太激動了而 8.0是JMA的分析XD
Erin avatar
By Erin
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這樣就不是CWB自high 了,小J也要給125kts了
Brianna avatar
By Brianna
at 2022-09-20T03:34
天鵝的水氣可以足以灌飽全臺水庫了吧
Agnes avatar
By Agnes
at 2022-09-24T19:49
JMA可能斟酌給120
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2022-09-20T03:34
不只灌飽 可能要洩洪==
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-09-24T19:49
JTWC:T8.0 這次是真的XDD
Agatha avatar
By Agatha
at 2022-09-20T03:34
JTWC用BF0.5加上去得到8.0
Kyle avatar
By Kyle
at 2022-09-24T19:49
神串推
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2022-09-20T03:34
看起來真是非常的危險…
William avatar
By William
at 2022-09-24T19:49
神串留名啊!!!
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2022-09-20T03:34
神串留名
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-09-24T19:49
JMA果真評120,氣壓下降到905
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2022-09-20T03:34
http://i.imgur.com/SPLafD2.jpg
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-09-24T19:49
給T8.0的下限呀…,不過還行
Jack avatar
By Jack
at 2022-09-20T03:34
這2巔感覺真的還好 不過是機構容易給強的類型
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
JTWC評170kt 884hPa
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-09-20T03:34
JTWC:170knots 884mb
Isabella avatar
By Isabella
at 2022-09-24T19:49
直接正確 嘻嘻
2巔實際強度很可能就這個
Charlie avatar
By Charlie
at 2022-09-20T03:34
留名
Una avatar
By Una
at 2022-09-24T19:49
持續時間夠長,MET有時間拉到8.0
DT就可以靠著BF提高到8.0進而讓FT也可8.0
Skylar Davis avatar
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-09-20T03:34
真的猛
Brianna avatar
By Brianna
at 2022-09-24T19:49
老J這個評價很棒啊
Edith avatar
By Edith
at 2022-09-20T03:34
終於沒跟海燕一樣德法對應895hpa了
Valerie avatar
By Valerie
at 2022-09-24T19:49
不過我有點好奇 這個BF0.5的加成在哪? 看起來外圍螺
Isla avatar
By Isla
at 2022-09-20T03:34
旋雨帶很普通呀
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2022-09-24T19:49
多繞1/4圈就可以加0.5了
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2022-09-20T03:34
其實以前很多7.5的颱風要給BF也不是不行,就看JTWC
要不要而已XD
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-24T19:49
如果MET沒有比修正前的DT大就不能用BF
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
NAVGEM 12Z差點轉走 不過重新轉西
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-24T19:49
聽說有大站能進入風眼
看能不能掛掉前給個氣壓
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
熬夜見證歷史!
Jacky avatar
By Jacky
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電 TWRF 12Z報了個NVGM 06Z類似路線
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-09-20T03:34
ADT正式來到T7.8 164kts/899.3hpa
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2022-09-24T19:49
剛給170kt的雲圖 https://i.imgur.com/96Zntkl.jpg
Jake avatar
By Jake
at 2022-09-20T03:34
精美的底層 https://i.imgur.com/5cEnZJ2.jpg
Suhail Hany avatar
By Suhail Hany
at 2022-09-24T19:49
真的絕了 https://i.imgur.com/rDOsHsp.jpg
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-20T03:34
借轉數字板...
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
http://i.imgur.com/EhtaY5C.jpg
這真的很誇張...應該是我看過最猛的底層了
Skylar Davis avatar
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-09-20T03:34
其實轉一下就很像海燕登陸前
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-24T19:49
888留名
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2022-09-20T03:34
CWB維持 65/80/888hpa
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2022-09-24T19:49
http://i.imgur.com/ieUqwwe.jpg
Noah avatar
By Noah
at 2022-09-20T03:34
175成環
Odelette avatar
By Odelette
at 2022-09-24T19:49
EC12Z系集 閃電不論北轉或平西都有繼續靠近台灣收束
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2022-09-20T03:34
但強度調弱
Lauren avatar
By Lauren
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://reurl.cc/4m8gLX 兩小時前菲律賓
Catherine avatar
By Catherine
at 2022-09-20T03:34
virac可能正中風眼 看能不能把數據傳完在葛屁
Barb Cronin avatar
By Barb Cronin
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這底層好像比10梅姬來的好
Agnes avatar
By Agnes
at 2022-09-20T03:34
JTWC Cat.5 STY 22w (Goni) #16
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2022-09-24T19:49
2020OCT31 174000 7.7 902.5 161.0 7.7 8.0 8.0
Andrew avatar
By Andrew
at 2022-09-20T03:34
19.58 -82.97 EYE 16 IR,真完美風暴
David avatar
By David
at 2022-09-24T19:49
JTWC 22w (Goni) #16 - 170kts Cat.5 STY
https://i.imgur.com/n8w61OW.gif
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2022-09-20T03:34
Ref.: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Isla avatar
By Isla
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://upload.cc/i1/2020/11/01/PwhgJU.png
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2022-09-24T19:49
http://i.imgur.com/wiO0H6E.jpg
Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2022-09-20T03:34
不過可惜只能有天鵝一巔的可見光可看到
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://upload.cc/i1/2020/11/01/2uDP3b.png
Dora avatar
By Dora
at 2022-09-20T03:34
還是貓大上傳的圖比較漂亮
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://upload.cc/i1/2020/11/01/0FyhaI.png
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-09-20T03:34
等後面閃電了 看jma好像又南調
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2022-09-24T19:49
豪猛
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-20T03:34
幸運點滿的颱風?
Donna avatar
By Donna
at 2022-09-24T19:49
剛起床等待 Virac Airport 數據
Catherine avatar
By Catherine
at 2022-09-20T03:34
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-09-24T19:49
也在等待實測中
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2022-09-20T03:34
可惜不夠圓 型態還是海燕美
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這個置換真的很神耶
Edwina avatar
By Edwina
at 2022-09-20T03:34
海燕完成度太高了 派翠莎/天鵝/尼伯特 得要好好比一
比 莫蘭蒂就算了 完全沒優勢
Charlie avatar
By Charlie
at 2022-09-24T19:49
菲律賓中部群島會讓天鵝強度因地形維持下去嗎?
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-20T03:34
群島應該破壞力沒北邊高山那麼大 減弱程度較低
但菲律賓就危險了 天鵝很可能只到這一代了xd
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2022-09-24T19:49
明日國際新聞希望別太慘重xd
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2022-09-20T03:34
台灣防護罩開啟,閃電看來又閃過了
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這季節本來颱風就不容易來 跟防護罩無關xd
來反而還是賺到的
2000年後有發警報的11月台也沒幾個
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2022-09-20T03:34
也是
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-24T19:49
2000 象神(但十月誕生) 今天剛好侵襲20年了
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
2003 米勒(侵台颱風)2007 米塔(海警) 2004 12南馬嘟
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2022-09-24T19:49
12月只有南馬督(登陸)
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2022-09-20T03:34
這撞呂宋北部的路徑會有共伴嗎?
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-09-24T19:49
彭博士有分析了,撞菲後的風速跟海燕差了一截
Suhail Hany avatar
By Suhail Hany
at 2022-09-20T03:34
他怎麼說略低~ 不是差了90公里每小時嗎XD
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2022-09-24T19:49
彭博士的資料有誤 海燕當時PAGASA 給的強度是 230kp
h
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2022-09-20T03:34
315kph 應該是JTWC的
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2022-09-24T19:49
感覺彭博士FB發佈的那個比較像官方決定的風速 而不
是實測?
Victoria avatar
By Victoria
at 2022-09-20T03:34
莫蘭蒂光是來台灣 近30年最強 就有地位了
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2022-09-24T19:49
撞菲的速度也有差吧 海燕走蠻快的不是?
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2022-09-20T03:34
莫蘭蒂只是擦過 尼伯特可是直接撞上
Emma avatar
By Emma
at 2022-09-24T19:49
朝聖
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
朝聖
Blanche avatar
By Blanche
at 2022-09-24T19:49
推推
James avatar
By James
at 2022-09-20T03:34
這季節冷高壓包著台灣,颱風靠近的難度很高,說是
防護罩也行啦
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2022-09-24T19:49
jma 這報剩 90kts 960hPa
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2022-09-20T03:34
朝聖
Joseph avatar
By Joseph
at 2022-09-24T19:49
天鵝被阿爾拜省和南甘馬仁省的2000公尺火山砍得很慘
Blanche avatar
By Blanche
at 2022-09-20T03:34
CWB還有給58
閃電還有機會嗎?
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-24T19:49
11/7左右有東北風南下,到時再看看會不會跟閃電產
生輻合降雨,但前提是閃電要發展的起來
Ursula avatar
By Ursula
at 2022-09-20T03:34
這鵝實在太厲害了
Quanna avatar
By Quanna
at 2022-09-24T19:49
雖然頂級颱風通常被一座2000公尺的山干擾結構就會有
Adele avatar
By Adele
at 2022-09-20T03:34
不小影響,但像山竹這樣堅挺的眼在登陸後高層眼還維
Brianna avatar
By Brianna
at 2022-09-24T19:49
持清空狀態很久沒填塞,某方面來說這堅挺程度還是強
於海燕跟天鵝
Puput avatar
By Puput
at 2022-09-20T03:34
老J00Z也直接大砍到剩115kts
Kyle avatar
By Kyle
at 2022-09-24T19:49
好漂亮的天鵝~
Rosalind avatar
By Rosalind
at 2022-09-20T03:34
一早來看居然還是888......wow
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
比較JTWC登陸前後調降強度的幅度︰
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2022-09-20T03:34
海燕170→135kts 山竹145→115kts 天鵝170→115kts
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2022-09-24T19:49
會不會是天鵝在海面上待的時間不夠長,所以結構破
壞的也快?
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2022-09-20T03:34
如同蘇迪勒待得夠久結構還是保持完好
Jack avatar
By Jack
at 2022-09-24T19:49
我沒想到這個觀點耶,但天鵝生成的地方比上面提到的
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-09-20T03:34
其他颱風還要西不少,海面上待的時間不夠長,相對也
不像其他颱風一樣持續換眼牆擴大風場的過程
Olive avatar
By Olive
at 2022-09-24T19:49
然後本身一開始就比其他颱風迷你不少,感覺這幾個因
素都有可能
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-09-20T03:34
菲律賓會很慘很慘啊
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2022-09-24T19:49
山竹登陸時記得是蚊香+明顯雙眼
加上大眼維持度本來就比較高
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2022-09-20T03:34
海燕這類底層一坨的直接撞下去去了
John avatar
By John
at 2022-09-24T19:49
大環流登陸時減弱的也比較慢
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2022-09-20T03:34
小颱風相比大颱風本就容易被地形破壞速度較快
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2022-09-24T19:49
你伯特也是如此 一撞台灣就毀了
所以我一向都不愛小颱風
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-20T03:34
山竹跟去年日本的哈貝貝 又大又猛!!
Callum avatar
By Callum
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這隻鵝姐如果是撞中央山脈 大概毀的更快xd
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-20T03:34
170kt可能直接90kt xd
Xanthe avatar
By Xanthe
at 2022-09-24T19:49
台灣吃到最猛的就2000碧利斯了吧~
James avatar
By James
at 2022-09-20T03:34
朝聖
Dorothy avatar
By Dorothy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
太強了 888
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2022-09-20T03:34
原來昨晚高潮啊
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2022-09-24T19:49
菲好慘...QQ
Xanthe avatar
By Xanthe
at 2022-09-20T03:34
神串留名
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2022-09-24T19:49
隔壁閃電的對流好像越爆越猛了
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2022-09-20T03:34
神串留名!
William avatar
By William
at 2022-09-24T19:49
神串留名
Mia avatar
By Mia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
鵝鵝鵝鵝鵝鵝鵝鵝!!!!
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-09-24T19:49
要被除名了 我們懷念它!
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
神串留名 順便幫被除名QQ
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2022-09-24T19:49
鵝鵝鵝鵝鵝
Zanna avatar
By Zanna
at 2022-09-20T03:34
JTWC發修正報,改成130kts
Ula avatar
By Ula
at 2022-09-24T19:49
朝聖
Kelly avatar
By Kelly
at 2022-09-20T03:34
朝聖一下
Jake avatar
By Jake
at 2022-09-24T19:49
朝聖...
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2022-09-20T03:34
神串留名
Audriana avatar
By Audriana
at 2022-09-24T19:49
雖然高潮過了,還是要推一下
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/9CbpOPV.png
Liam avatar
By Liam
at 2022-09-24T19:49
神串
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電到底會不會直撲呢?
Tracy avatar
By Tracy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
想問一下天鵝過南海有機會吃共伴嗎
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
快樂888~絕命六龜葡萄~
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2022-09-24T19:49
看來若直撲好像又在假日
Regina avatar
By Regina
at 2022-09-20T03:34
位置太南邊了,共伴不了 頂多送些水上來而已
Valerie avatar
By Valerie
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電拜託快來...
Jacky avatar
By Jacky
at 2022-09-20T03:34
這幾天閃電預報一直改 要等明天才能較確定了
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2022-09-24T19:49
EC這報閃電擦過呂宋北端
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2022-09-20T03:34
EC跟GFS差不多
Kristin avatar
By Kristin
at 2022-09-24T19:49
觀賞完鵝王,該關心閃電的影響了
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/fa6ARQQ.png
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2022-09-24T19:49
舒緩缺水的最後機會
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
天鵝消風之後會不會反過來反而助攻閃電發展
Una avatar
By Una
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電雖然衣服還沒穿上,但環流越來越大了
Poppy avatar
By Poppy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/NFAQnmp.gif
WRFM的預測其實很接近NAVGEM的位置
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2022-09-24T19:49
神串留名
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2022-09-20T03:34
神串留名
John avatar
By John
at 2022-09-24T19:49
NAVGEM預測閃電後面的系統會讓閃電後期南落
可以等走到台灣頭頂再南落阿 歡迎
Faithe avatar
By Faithe
at 2022-09-20T03:34
該來看閃電了
Rosalind avatar
By Rosalind
at 2022-09-24T19:49
各家數值分歧其實還是很大
Edwina avatar
By Edwina
at 2022-09-20T03:34
遲了還是來神串一下
Bennie avatar
By Bennie
at 2022-09-24T19:49
台灣都快缺水了。
Jessica avatar
By Jessica
at 2022-09-20T03:34
短期留意閃電動向,目前預估11月上旬後半副高偏強
,沒有東北季風的影子
Audriana avatar
By Audriana
at 2022-09-24T19:49
就算有雨也沒用 因為這個版只會說 雨又下錯地方
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2022-09-20T03:34
只有你會這麼說
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-09-24T19:49
對傘~店期待不高 XD
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2022-09-20T03:34
鳥颱倒是一點都不鳥,夠猛!
Rae avatar
By Rae
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/yekQe4i.jpg
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2022-09-20T03:34
CWB給的誤差範圍仍然很大
Mia avatar
By Mia
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這樣走應該有海警機率
Kyle avatar
By Kyle
at 2022-09-20T03:34
神串留名
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-09-24T19:49
TWRF 00Z的路徑倒是很靠近臺灣
Lydia avatar
By Lydia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
cwb預測路徑是有多不看好來台灣 南落得很不自然...
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2022-09-24T19:49
http://i.imgur.com/XUGWuMw.jpg
TWRF:
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
CWB一向都是先低調,如果先報靠近台灣 媒體大概要
高潮了
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2022-09-24T19:49
我只想放假
Bethany avatar
By Bethany
at 2022-09-20T03:34
本來就還分歧很大吧~ 目前確實是往呂宋比較多呀 再
觀察
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2022-09-24T19:49
是說 天鵝的懸臂和閃電連在一起
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2022-09-20T03:34
神串
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電難預測 被天鵝影響很大
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2022-09-20T03:34
該放手了 天鵝媽
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-09-24T19:49
天鵝:一定要把閃電衣服搶過來
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
都十一月了別再開防護罩了吧......
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-09-24T19:49
11月防護罩才強吧 颱風再猛也頂不過西風槽
Brianna avatar
By Brianna
at 2022-09-20T03:34
嗯 其他國南落就很自然嗎?
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-09-24T19:49
模式系集都很類似啊 物理上那南落都說得通
Noah avatar
By Noah
at 2022-09-20T03:34
拜託~來點雨水就行
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2022-09-24T19:49
美軍日本都還打一個圈欸XD
Erin avatar
By Erin
at 2022-09-20T03:34
減弱的太慘了...
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2022-09-24T19:49
12小時內,JTWC:170→75kts,JMA:120→65kts
增強速度是歷史紀錄,減弱速度也是歷史紀錄...
David avatar
By David
at 2022-09-20T03:34
颱風小 減弱快也蠻正常xD
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-24T19:49
還是朝聖一下 留名
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電怎麼看起來爆的比預期快
Connor avatar
By Connor
at 2022-09-24T19:49
就規模小,增強需要的能量少,所以減弱也快
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2022-09-20T03:34
像東太風王也是這樣
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2022-09-24T19:49
朝聖了啊啊啊
Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/CWHC4Cs.gif
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/56cYJnV.png
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2022-09-20T03:34
小J 12Z只剩STS下限QAQ
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2022-09-24T19:49
24小時前天鵝60m/s 閃電18m/s
Agnes avatar
By Agnes
at 2022-09-20T03:34
24小時後強度居然有機會黃金交叉...
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2022-09-24T19:49
傘店~
Jacky avatar
By Jacky
at 2022-09-20T03:34
Edwina avatar
By Edwina
at 2022-09-24T19:49
北軍要出現了嗎?
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-09-20T03:34
目前數據顯示都是偏西往巴海或呂宋前進
Hedwig avatar
By Hedwig
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/IDgJ11A.png
Faithe avatar
By Faithe
at 2022-09-20T03:34
分歧點在兩天後的位置 最南的EC和GFS 最北就是剛好
Edwina avatar
By Edwina
at 2022-09-24T19:49
摸到20N線就下去了 而幾家走到21N位置的
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
JMA分析FT/CI6.0,評50kt
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-09-24T19:49
都有機會往台灣過來(可能登陸)
兩天後的緯度位置看來會決定一切
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2022-09-20T03:34
像JMA主觀預測 兩天後緯度在19.4N 所以最後路徑很
偏南擦過呂宋最北端 要登陸台灣的話 至少兩天後也
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2022-09-24T19:49
要能飄到21N線(以北)機會才會大
Charlie avatar
By Charlie
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/FrVs148.gif
強度還太弱 中心還不明確 渦度還一大片並且與天鵝
Vanessa avatar
By Vanessa
at 2022-09-24T19:49
相連 中心到時候整合好的位置在哪邊還很難說
所以各家數值分歧還不小 (兩天後中心會在哪呢?)
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2022-09-20T03:34
NAVGEM這兩個月來 幾乎每次都錯
Brianna avatar
By Brianna
at 2022-09-24T19:49
大概後天 各家數值的分歧就會大幅縮小了
Queena avatar
By Queena
at 2022-09-20T03:34
EC GFS前幾天還報過東北轉向勒 反而CMC一直變化不大
當初幾乎所有數值都報大幅東北轉向的那時候 只有CMC
Megan avatar
By Megan
at 2022-09-24T19:49
撐著沒轉 當初大幅轉向的那些 現在反而有些最偏西
(如EC和GFS)
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2022-09-20T03:34
推 Capital235 : 剩cmc還沒北轉 10/27 21:33
C大這推文我還有印象 所以現在EC和GFS這次我也是
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2022-09-24T19:49
各家都一直修,TWRF 的72hr之後預報也修改不停
Doris avatar
By Doris
at 2022-09-20T03:34
笑笑而已 大幅東北轉向和最偏西都給你報過了
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2022-09-24T19:49
過兩天再來看...就差不多啦 現在要努力變胖啊
Donna avatar
By Donna
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電如果發展超出預期和11/3增強的副高會強到什麼程
度都會影響後面的路徑
Lucy avatar
By Lucy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
就算不看決定性預報 看系集也是各種可能都畫給你看
https://i.imgur.com/V9I1HSH.png
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2022-09-20T03:34
只有一點可以確定 兩天後的緯度位置是關鍵
Sarah avatar
By Sarah
at 2022-09-24T19:49
所以CWB給的預報誤差範圍都相當大,還涵蓋到台灣
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2022-09-20T03:34
北飄到21N的幾乎都是往台灣而來或登陸的 當然如果
更進一步飄到22N就有可能直接轉走 連台灣的邊都摸
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2022-09-24T19:49
不到 但反過來說 連20N都不到的 就是往菲島去了
Noah avatar
By Noah
at 2022-09-20T03:34
前面那張渦度圖 就能解釋 兩天後(整合後)的位置
不確定性會有多大 閃電目前還太弱
就等後天來看吧
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-24T19:49
不過EC 06Z系集明顯比00Z北調
Dora avatar
By Dora
at 2022-09-20T03:34
天鵝這報剩33
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/fbij1rJ.jpg
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-20T03:34
CCC
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電這雨量 來台灣水庫應該可以補很多
Linda avatar
By Linda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
GFS預報11/10有可能有顆颱風擦邊台灣
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電:輪到我的回合了
Heather avatar
By Heather
at 2022-09-20T03:34
看閃電的衛星雲圖的風眼好像白白的那團?
Regina avatar
By Regina
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電如果真直撲 補水應該有機會
但就真的要直撲xd
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電來吧!
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-09-24T19:49
預報頂多中颱那就登陸吧
災情應該還好
Puput avatar
By Puput
at 2022-09-20T03:34
中颱登陸災情不一定還好吧 很多中颱災情都比強颱嚴
重不少 莫拉克 納莉 桃芝 敏督利
但這季節颱風要登陸難度很高就是了xd
Lauren avatar
By Lauren
at 2022-09-24T19:49
而且記得一些輕颱也有引發過較重災情
Jacky avatar
By Jacky
at 2022-09-20T03:34
輕颱當然有阿 熱低也有 823就是了
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2022-09-24T19:49
不過許多造成比較重大災情的颱風 速度快慢也是重點
Todd Johnson avatar
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-09-20T03:34
看EC 06Z系集 如果晚上12Z決定性預報修到登陸台灣也
不用太意外
Carolina Franco avatar
By Carolina Franco
at 2022-09-24T19:49
想靠颱風補水勢必就要承擔部分致災風險 台灣的宿命
Megan avatar
By Megan
at 2022-09-20T03:34
但到台灣附近速度挺快的,要致災雨量感覺有難度哈
Sarah avatar
By Sarah
at 2022-09-24T19:49
,不想缺水啊
Yedda avatar
By Yedda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
朝聖一下
Edward Lewis avatar
By Edward Lewis
at 2022-09-24T19:49
GFS這一天以來 一直有把兩隻調近的趨勢
David avatar
By David
at 2022-09-20T03:34
來吧
Hamiltion avatar
By Hamiltion
at 2022-09-24T19:49
+18H 近4報比較 https://i.imgur.com/ys4Egbi.gif
Victoria avatar
By Victoria
at 2022-09-20T03:34
天鵝往東南調 閃電往西北調 兩隻作用程度調大中
不知道對最終路徑的影響會是?
Regina avatar
By Regina
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電強度發展也略比"預期"得快一些些
Jack avatar
By Jack
at 2022-09-20T03:34
尤其西北側風力 發展的比預期好 代表目前西北側爆
出的強對流 是GFS低估的地方
Poppy avatar
By Poppy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
GFS 12Z看起來有北調 看來是向其他家數值收斂
Quintina avatar
By Quintina
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電看起來有恢復原氣了
Caitlin avatar
By Caitlin
at 2022-09-24T19:49
老天鵝減弱的速度好驚人
對越南也是好事吧....冏
Wallis avatar
By Wallis
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電跟天鵝準備黃金交叉了
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電借給天鵝的還回來了xD
Callum avatar
By Callum
at 2022-09-20T03:34
昨天這個時候還在創造紀錄 今天已經散成一團麵糊
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-09-24T19:49
CMC 12Z開獎中 看起來有可能把登陸點北調
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2022-09-20T03:34
衣服換閃電穿上,精彩的時刻到了
Xanthe avatar
By Xanthe
at 2022-09-24T19:49
調很多勒 還會登陸嗎?
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2022-09-20T03:34
傘店現在是CCC覆蓋嗎?
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
老天鵝減弱得好快
Liam avatar
By Liam
at 2022-09-20T03:34
中心還沒過130E
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2022-09-24T19:49
CMC 12Z 125E轉向後快速減弱消散
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2022-09-20T03:34
CMC早上就比NAVGEM預測的還要北 可能是最北的數值
最北的數值改成125E轉向了
Gary avatar
By Gary
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這樣EC可能等會12Z 會修到很接近台灣最南端~登陸
台東
大家都在北修
Andrew avatar
By Andrew
at 2022-09-20T03:34
搞不好過幾天要改招喚西軍(X
Lucy avatar
By Lucy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
現在先不要太快喊北軍站出來
Daniel avatar
By Daniel
at 2022-09-20T03:34
現在中心應該明顯會往爆對流的西北側偏移
Annie avatar
By Annie
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電就這樣默默的變胖 然後天鵝要散了
Ophelia avatar
By Ophelia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
怕變胖就不來
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/WD0rBjm.png
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2022-09-20T03:34
不過就算來台灣可能也會減弱不少 而且變數還很大
Faithe avatar
By Faithe
at 2022-09-24T19:49
天鵝的底層跟海燕一樣史上第二
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-20T03:34
尼伯特的底層第一
Elma avatar
By Elma
at 2022-09-24T19:49
再一次見證歷史
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2022-09-20T03:34
之前閃電被天鵝壓榨,現在換成閃電借助天鵝力量來爆
發了
Oscar avatar
By Oscar
at 2022-09-24T19:49
兩個衣服互搶嗎 之前鵝姊搶閃電 現在閃電搶鵝姊
鵝姊目前看起來快散架了xd
Kyle avatar
By Kyle
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電:衣服我的鵝姐妳給我還來哦
Delia avatar
By Delia
at 2022-09-24T19:49
天鵝剩骨架lol
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2022-09-20T03:34
天鵝:我的生命已到 閃電剩下交給你了(丟生命球)
Megan avatar
By Megan
at 2022-09-24T19:49
搶衣服我還以為是莫拉克
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電越來越好看了
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-24T19:49
天鵝是被施展弱化術嗎? 撞了陸地後消散也太快
Ida avatar
By Ida
at 2022-09-20T03:34
西北軍站出來
Dorothy avatar
By Dorothy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/XtX6YjJ.jpg
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2022-09-20T03:34
颱風上層的輻散中心轉移到閃電 換天鵝被切
Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/34jXVHB.gif
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電越來越有樣子囉
Zenobia avatar
By Zenobia
at 2022-09-24T19:49
感覺施展了 心轉生之術了xd
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電現在還是CCC嗎
Jack avatar
By Jack
at 2022-09-24T19:49
看可見光 猜測中心大概在深對流東南邊緣
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/kXZmXIr.jpg
從扭腰變轉圈圈
Donna avatar
By Donna
at 2022-09-24T19:49
CWB奈米北調從擦過呂宋島北調到坐巴士
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2022-09-20T03:34
高層輻散已經位在閃電上方 就等閃電自己扶正
Zora avatar
By Zora
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電現在不多走一點 等兩三天後打轉完高壓西伸後台
灣就沒機會了 頂多北部東部吃共伴
Barb Cronin avatar
By Barb Cronin
at 2022-09-20T03:34
美國北調最多
Donna avatar
By Donna
at 2022-09-24T19:49
重要的是滯留時怎麼飄
Liam avatar
By Liam
at 2022-09-20T03:34
打轉這下後續路徑...
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電加油啊,快來
Joe avatar
By Joe
at 2022-09-20T03:34
共伴看起來也沒機會,南邊通過時東北風剛好減弱
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2022-09-24T19:49
天鵝總結 1巔尼伯特2巔小海燕 登菲後Patricia
3個願望一次滿足
Emma avatar
By Emma
at 2022-09-20T03:34
洗洗睡了,台灣今年真的掛0,悲慘啊
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2022-09-24T19:49
除非登陸 不然沒啥雨了 登陸機率也是非常低
Odelette avatar
By Odelette
at 2022-09-20T03:34
還不確定吧 怎那麼篤定了
Aaliyah avatar
By Aaliyah
at 2022-09-24T19:49
先看吧 各個民間官方粉專都有說變數仍大
Ethan avatar
By Ethan
at 2022-09-20T03:34
24~36H的觀察重點
Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這種卡鞍的劇本多的是 沒啥不可能的
Freda avatar
By Freda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
現在就講得這麼肯定 顆顆
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2022-09-24T19:49
天鵝剩20m/s 995hpa 好慘
Aaliyah avatar
By Aaliyah
at 2022-09-20T03:34
HWRF 00Z也明顯北調
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
新北下雨
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-20T03:34
新北那麼大是在講哪邊
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-24T19:49
我們懷念鵝鵝QQ
Skylar Davis avatar
By Skylar Davis
at 2022-09-20T03:34
樹林現在小雨
Victoria avatar
By Victoria
at 2022-09-24T19:49
看能不能撈個海警
Rachel avatar
By Rachel
at 2022-09-20T03:34
拜託來一個吧
Lily avatar
By Lily
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/yJqxSr0.gif
Elizabeth avatar
By Elizabeth
at 2022-09-20T03:34
挖靠樓上??
Charlotte avatar
By Charlotte
at 2022-09-24T19:49
CWB吃了什麼 都給我來一點
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2022-09-20T03:34
CWB如果直接北調到登陸 媒體就高潮了
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-09-24T19:49
CWB 14時還是坐巴士,而且最強就輕颱上限了
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2022-09-20T03:34
要不要換一個討論文了~
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-24T19:49
哇,CWB你...
Valerie avatar
By Valerie
at 2022-09-20T03:34
直穿
Ula avatar
By Ula
at 2022-09-24T19:49
台媒看到要高潮了……
David avatar
By David
at 2022-09-20T03:34
cwb的主觀預報路徑上一直蠻穩定的,沒有大修,但誤
差範圍也還不敢把靠近登陸的選項排除就是了
Kyle avatar
By Kyle
at 2022-09-24T19:49
沒事了
Tom avatar
By Tom
at 2022-09-20T03:34
結構一直在好轉的感覺
Mia avatar
By Mia
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這麼好的路徑,感覺容易鳥掉QQ
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-20T03:34
可是如果滯留可能會攪冷水把自己搞死
Heather avatar
By Heather
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/OmgGQmq.gif
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/6lIUsa6.png
Yuri avatar
By Yuri
at 2022-09-24T19:49
低標:凹個海警 均標:陸警 高標:登陸 頂標:花蓮
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2022-09-20T03:34
以北登陸 讓中南部都能補點水
這次能達到什麼成績呢 @@
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
突然發現天鵝被JTWC降TD,慘
Todd Johnson avatar
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-09-20T03:34
希望頂標
Dorothy avatar
By Dorothy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
頂標吧 不然來了就沒意義了 就是要補水
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2022-09-20T03:34
看起來是發展越強越偏北? 那也不能太強要剛剛好
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2022-09-24T19:49
台東登陸強度較高
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-09-20T03:34
來吧來吧來吧, 缺水啊
Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2022-09-24T19:49
上午轉的很漂亮,結果下午越轉越散
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2022-09-20T03:34
上午的應該是昨晚爆出來的ccc
Emily avatar
By Emily
at 2022-09-24T19:49
這隻強度就不要有期望了
Madame avatar
By Madame
at 2022-09-20T03:34
希望能讓南部水庫有進補就好
Zora avatar
By Zora
at 2022-09-24T19:49
希望不要太強,也不要太弱,剛剛好就好
Rosalind avatar
By Rosalind
at 2022-09-20T03:34
會來比較重要吧?
Quintina avatar
By Quintina
at 2022-09-24T19:49
天鵝的成長史就是 醜小鴨變天鵝 但吃太多生長激素
快速衰老 又變回去醜小鴨xe
Faithe avatar
By Faithe
at 2022-09-20T03:34
現在結構有點差 不知道能不能補到水
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2022-09-24T19:49
畢竟海溫不一樣了 很難再更強了
Jack avatar
By Jack
at 2022-09-20T03:34
沒風沒差,有雨就好
Carol avatar
By Carol
at 2022-09-24T19:49
91W跑哪了 沒看到
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2022-09-20T03:34
強度感覺不會太強 除非直撲不然要補到水也有點難
Harry avatar
By Harry
at 2022-09-24T19:49
怎麼剛看新聞,戴說沒影響XD
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
減肉消失?
Dinah avatar
By Dinah
at 2022-09-24T19:49
怕閃電只剩下5伏特而已XDDDDD
Frederic avatar
By Frederic
at 2022-09-20T03:34
天鵝的衣服好像也回來了
Thomas avatar
By Thomas
at 2022-09-24T19:49
中南部要補水中心要過山吹起較強的西南風才有機會,
Doris avatar
By Doris
at 2022-09-20T03:34
強度不強可能先被山脈切割了吧
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2022-09-24T19:49
各家都奈米北調到北緯20度了
Mia avatar
By Mia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電看起來加快了
Belly avatar
By Belly
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/9SnI2kt.jpg
Susan avatar
By Susan
at 2022-09-20T03:34
笑了 那麼早判斷啊
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2022-09-24T19:49
拜託強一點到金門 金門水庫都乾了..
Oliver avatar
By Oliver
at 2022-09-20T03:34
這是減弱消失的那位嗎?
Dora avatar
By Dora
at 2022-09-24T19:49
從巴海經過要補水難度很高 ...
Dora avatar
By Dora
at 2022-09-20T03:34
CWB那張百分之70機率預報徒都還涵蓋在南台灣,他就
Jake avatar
By Jake
at 2022-09-24T19:49
那麼肯定不影響台灣?
Isla avatar
By Isla
at 2022-09-20T03:34
他就小丑一個阿 意外嗎XD
Elvira avatar
By Elvira
at 2022-09-24T19:49
反正到時候如果真的發警報也不是他被罵 呵
Mary avatar
By Mary
at 2022-09-20T03:34
減弱消失真是經典
Kama avatar
By Kama
at 2022-09-24T19:49
減弱消失是哪個啊? 沒follow到
Gilbert avatar
By Gilbert
at 2022-09-20T03:34
就天秤啊xd
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-09-24T19:49
天秤真的是經典
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/76RLn5i.jpg
Catherine avatar
By Catherine
at 2022-09-24T19:49
減弱消失是凡那比
Anthony avatar
By Anthony
at 2022-09-20T03:34
天秤是信誓旦旦說不會跟布拉萬發生藤原效應
Necoo avatar
By Necoo
at 2022-09-24T19:49
還說什麼隔山打牛不可能發生
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
看到大家都對糗爺這麼有信心 我就放心了 XDD
Franklin avatar
By Franklin
at 2022-09-24T19:49
減弱消失剛Google一下是天秤
Hedda avatar
By Hedda
at 2022-09-20T03:34
天秤也有說過 減弱消失
凡那比應該沒吧 當初就篤定登陸的
Michael avatar
By Michael
at 2022-09-24T19:49
凡那比我記得是登陸前夕有網友向氣象局反映沖繩離島
實測 結果氣象局上調凡那比強度
Dinah avatar
By Dinah
at 2022-09-20T03:34
而且當初我還在空軍 凡那比登陸花蓮那晚很精彩xd
Tom avatar
By Tom
at 2022-09-24T19:49
他當天在晨間氣象說 都快登陸了 怎麼還會增強!!!
Isla avatar
By Isla
at 2022-09-20T03:34
#1CbK0Xvo (TY_Research)
印象中有點激動....
Christine avatar
By Christine
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://youtu.be/bIdOTpTWgy8
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2022-09-20T03:34
CWB晚上8點這報 70%機率明顯蓋到南台灣了
Caroline avatar
By Caroline
at 2022-09-24T19:49
XD 原來是這樣啊
Joseph avatar
By Joseph
at 2022-09-20T03:34
要開始緩慢打轉了 如果明天可以飄到21N 則登陸
Delia avatar
By Delia
at 2022-09-24T19:49
台灣機會 會提昇不少 當然如果維持目前20.0N附近
緯度位置 則巴士海峽(中線)通過機會最高
Margaret avatar
By Margaret
at 2022-09-20T03:34
關鍵的24N小時 會怎麼亂飄呢??
24小時
Jack avatar
By Jack
at 2022-09-24T19:49
加油啊閃電,台灣的水源靠你了
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2022-09-20T03:34
喔那我記錯了www 抱歉抱歉
Leila avatar
By Leila
at 2022-09-24T19:49
重點是還會往南移 要看南移多少 如果不明顯 影響
Rae avatar
By Rae
at 2022-09-20T03:34
目前直接東北轉走的機會已經很低了 所以是時候招喚
北軍了 北軍站出來!!
Hazel avatar
By Hazel
at 2022-09-24T19:49
就相對比較大 覺得那個南凹的角度很關鍵
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
補水來一個~~
北起來~~~
Zora avatar
By Zora
at 2022-09-24T19:49
飄到21N的預測 後續的南移都不明顯 而且還會重新轉
西北西-西北 所以才有機會登陸
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/bh3YVhr.jpg
Sandy avatar
By Sandy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
西北比較剛好吧 北? 太北也摸不到台灣 西北剛好
Eartha avatar
By Eartha
at 2022-09-20T03:34
明晚位置在20.0N附近的預測 這是初期會小幅南落
但後續還是會重新轉回西北西 最後從巴海中線附近
通過
Mia avatar
By Mia
at 2022-09-24T19:49
昨天有提過 最大的分歧就是昨天的+48小時 也就是
明晚的緯度位置 幾乎就可以決定最終會多靠近台灣了
Wallis avatar
By Wallis
at 2022-09-20T03:34
現在預測的路徑 只有海警機率較高 陸警有待觀察
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2022-09-24T19:49
未來24小時就是緩慢打轉緩慢亂飄
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2022-09-20T03:34
今年本島都沒有陸警 好像也是史上第一次
Frederica avatar
By Frederica
at 2022-09-24T19:49
看閃電的後續吧 說不定閃電就中斷了也很難說
因為閃電預測的路徑範圍還是有機率發陸上的
Wallis avatar
By Wallis
at 2022-09-20T03:34
現在這隻閃電前名稱似乎是莫拉克沒錯吧xd?
Barb Cronin avatar
By Barb Cronin
at 2022-09-24T19:49
北軍+1 週末有討人厭的聚會
Lauren avatar
By Lauren
at 2022-09-20T03:34
閃電現在的姿態也不是多好
Callum avatar
By Callum
at 2022-09-24T19:49
JTWC好像又奈米北調了點,不過強度好像越調越慘
Megan avatar
By Megan
at 2022-09-20T03:34
強度沒關係的!有下雨較好!
Rae avatar
By Rae
at 2022-09-24T19:49
現在又開始爆對流了
Robert avatar
By Robert
at 2022-09-20T03:34
然後北面輻散看起來滿好的~
Xanthe avatar
By Xanthe
at 2022-09-24T19:49
希望莫拉克(閃電)也繼續愛台灣
Enid avatar
By Enid
at 2022-09-20T03:34
莫拉克上次不算愛台灣吧
Lydia avatar
By Lydia
at 2022-09-24T19:49
閃電現在的對流是在中心了 且明顯有發展
順利的話也許能達到C2~C3
不順就STS
Ivy avatar
By Ivy
at 2022-09-20T03:34
莫拉克很愛啊,用他的方式愛
Sierra Rose avatar
By Sierra Rose
at 2022-09-24T19:49
恐怖情人
Sarah avatar
By Sarah
at 2022-09-20T03:34
好像又開始爆對流
會華麗的變身嗎
Iris avatar
By Iris
at 2022-09-24T19:49
上一代閃電(艾莎尼)很強,只不過沒直撲陸地
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2022-09-20T03:34
莫拉克2003&2009都是愛來台灣 閃電(2015倒是沒事xd
Mary avatar
By Mary
at 2022-09-24T19:49
倒是上代天鵝擦邊球,台灣下了不少雨
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-09-20T03:34
上代天鵝好像在台灣旁邊達到巔峰吧
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/BAArNbT.png
Selena avatar
By Selena
at 2022-09-20T03:34
EC這報直撲了
George avatar
By George
at 2022-09-24T19:49
精彩啦
Daph Bay avatar
By Daph Bay
at 2022-09-20T03:34
都到家門口了應該跑不掉了吧
Jacob avatar
By Jacob
at 2022-09-24T19:49
晚點看系集吧 這次可能要前兩天才能確定多靠近
Vanessa avatar
By Vanessa
at 2022-09-20T03:34
全部直撲起來~
Kumar avatar
By Kumar
at 2022-09-24T19:49
加油~!補起來
Zanna avatar
By Zanna
at 2022-09-20T03:34
補水補起來,快
Andy avatar
By Andy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
海底撈月
Zanna avatar
By Zanna
at 2022-09-20T03:34
會不會到台灣也快散了
Skylar DavisLinda avatar
By Skylar DavisLinda
at 2022-09-24T19:49
http://i.imgur.com/jmuwrkI.jpg
Noah avatar
By Noah
at 2022-09-20T03:34
剛好跟冷空氣相遇,北側出現不弱的共伴雨帶
Hedy avatar
By Hedy
at 2022-09-24T19:49
先不用管共伴 因為如果是本體直撲 共伴雨帶不會再
台灣上空 要走巴士海峽或菲通過的才需要來看共伴位
Anonymous avatar
By Anonymous
at 2022-09-20T03:34
置是否在台灣上 共伴位置差一點就可能沒什麼雨了
Valerie avatar
By Valerie
at 2022-09-24T19:49
中南部要補水要有西南風吹上來,可能就是中心能夠
順利越過山脈進入台灣海峽,如果強度太弱可能撞山
直接解散了
Todd Johnson avatar
By Todd Johnson
at 2022-09-20T03:34
所以只能登陸共伴二選一?
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2022-09-24T19:49
弱砲撞進集水區,有辦法多半個月的儲量嗎? @@
Odelette avatar
By Odelette
at 2022-09-20T03:34
聊勝於無
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-24T19:49
如果真的能來 還要閃電在長肥點
不然跟當年吉達一樣就尷尬了
Eden avatar
By Eden
at 2022-09-20T03:34
強度蠻尷尬的 撞下去散掉中南部不見得能解渴
Delia avatar
By Delia
at 2022-09-24T19:49
至少要補水啊
Tristan Cohan avatar
By Tristan Cohan
at 2022-09-20T03:34
東北季風不弱,很難登陸吧?
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-09-24T19:49
護國神山先規避一下xD
Zora avatar
By Zora
at 2022-09-20T03:34
https://i.imgur.com/Fy74DyH.gif
Ingrid avatar
By Ingrid
at 2022-09-24T19:49
WRFM這路徑其實是多數數值的共識 差別只是在於離
Mason avatar
By Mason
at 2022-09-20T03:34
台灣西南近海有多近通過而已 EC登陸反而算少數預測
還有一天可以亂飄 看看會不會飄到21N
飄到21N線附近的話 登陸台灣機會 會提昇不少
Irma avatar
By Irma
at 2022-09-24T19:49
https://i.imgur.com/XCeZNHs.gif
Jack avatar
By Jack
at 2022-09-20T03:34
渦度中心極緩慢向東北飄(往東北調整)
Olga avatar
By Olga
at 2022-09-24T19:49
WRFM摸到20.0N就下去 所以今天實際走勢很重要
就看看今天還會不會繼續有向北分量
Olivia avatar
By Olivia
at 2022-09-20T03:34
北軍、站出來!!
Genevieve avatar
By Genevieve
at 2022-09-24T19:49
東北邊共伴雲系超強 話說要不幫閃電開新文章討論
John avatar
By John
at 2022-09-20T03:34
當年吉達雖然直撲 但其實桃園以南都沒什麼補到水

202019 天鵝 (JTWC 10/31 00Z PR)

Lucy avatar
By Lucy
at 2020-10-31T18:01
JTWC 10/31 00Z PROGNOSTIC REASONING WDPN31 PGTW 310300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON ...

天氣小觀:11月颱

Lauren avatar
By Lauren
at 2020-10-30T10:51
天氣小觀:11月颱 南方秋季即將進入後期,北方已進入初冬季節,極地更已進入永夜的隆冬; 在北極, 地面北極冷凍氣團在北極中心附近已經出現零下25度超低溫, 高空的北極渦旋中心百帕高度場已增強至15400米(想像940百帕氣旋), 不過,由於東半球的北極海冰結冰嚴重異常,至今仍少於平均值的一半, 因此, 夾 ...

202020 閃電颱風生成

Ida avatar
By Ida
at 2020-10-29T21:44
2020第20號颱風 這幾天升格整個趕進度 雖然EC 00Z的預報有些不看好發展 但JMA這報還是蠻看好強度的 http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/2020.html 台風第20号 (アッサニー) 令和02年10月29日22時30分 発表 andlt;29日21時の実況and ...

90W GW

Rebecca avatar
By Rebecca
at 2020-10-29T10:41
http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/c.html 熱帯低気圧 令和02年10月29日10時35分 発表 andlt;29日09時の実況andgt; 大きさ - 強さ - 熱帯低気圧 存在地域 カロリン諸島 中心位置 北緯 5度20分(5.3度) 東 ...

202019 天鵝

Suhail Hany avatar
By Suhail Hany
at 2020-10-29T03:54
T2019 ( GONI ) 2020/10/29 04:25 發佈 https://i.imgur.com/poYcoFm.png andlt;2020年10月29日03時的實況andgt; 強度級別/種類 熱帶風暴 中心位置(度) 16.7N 138.1E 前進方向、速度 西北西 15km/h ...