尼伯特分析~20160707 - 颱風討論

By Hedda
at 2016-07-07T17:35

Table of Contents

今天一樣非常忙碌，簡單來看一下颱風

如昨天預期，原本引導颱風移動的強勢高壓開始調整，

在颱風以北的部分逐漸變弱，甚至有分裂的狀況，

台風東北側的高壓主體則逐漸往南延伸，

就環境上來看會讓颱風速度減慢，接著就是要開始轉向。

http://i.imgur.com/qjGifNl.jpg

今天實際的狀況來看，颱風的移動速度的確是慢了，但似乎還在繼續往陸地移動，

颱風最外圍的氣流場已經跟地形慢慢有交互作用發生，

氣流繞過北部的繞山作用以及海峽地形收束的狹管效應

讓新屋出現8級陣風，梧棲也有9級陣風，

比較靠近颱風本體的蘭嶼風力最大，一度有12級陣風，

降雨的部分還不明顯，但是隨著暴風圈逼近，預估花東地區風雨即將要開始快速加強，

北部東北部的風雨入夜後也將轉趨明顯，

中部、南部可能會比較晚，大概要等到暴風圈繼續西進，深夜到凌晨之後才會逐漸有感。

由現在的預報來看，尼伯特颱風應該還是會繼續靠近台東到花蓮交界一帶(或略偏南)，

穿越台灣後再開始北轉，不過因為颱風速度已經減慢，動態上的變化需要多加注意，

特別是當主體環流跟地形進一步靠近後，微妙的變化還是有可能發生。

這個颱風影響台灣的時間看來會拖長，

因此當颱風中心進入台灣海峽並且開始北上這一段過程似乎會延續比較久的時間，

對於中南部的降雨影響非常值得注意。

晚上有空再繼續分析囉~

來張美美的雲圖~ http://i.imgur.com/mt1cA36.jpg

Tags: 颱風

All Comments

By Blanche
at 2016-07-09T22:35

推
搶到首推 (來不及CD)

By Gilbert
at 2016-07-12T03:35

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By Elma
at 2016-07-14T08:35

By Kelly
at 2016-07-16T13:35

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at 2016-07-18T18:35

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at 2016-07-20T23:35

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at 2016-07-23T04:35

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at 2016-07-25T09:35

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at 2016-07-27T14:35

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at 2016-07-29T19:35

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at 2016-08-01T00:35

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at 2016-08-03T05:35

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at 2016-08-05T10:35

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By Kama
at 2016-08-07T15:35

中南部給推

By Todd Johnson
at 2016-08-09T20:35

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By Connor
at 2016-08-12T01:35

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at 2016-08-14T06:35

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at 2016-08-16T11:35

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at 2016-08-18T16:35

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By Oscar
at 2016-08-20T21:35

之前還預測過快閃

By Jake
at 2016-08-23T02:35

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By Emily
at 2016-08-25T07:35

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By Hamiltion
at 2016-08-27T12:35

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By Brianna
at 2016-08-29T17:35

感謝推

By Vanessa
at 2016-08-31T22:35

謝謝卡大分析推

By Kelly
at 2016-09-03T03:35

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By Regina
at 2016-09-05T08:35

見卡大文先推

By Selena
at 2016-09-07T13:34

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at 2016-09-09T18:34

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at 2016-09-11T23:34

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at 2016-09-14T04:34

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By Yuri
at 2016-09-16T09:34

push

By Mia
at 2016-09-18T14:34

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By Ursula
at 2016-09-20T19:34

暴風圈都還沒觸陸真的等很久了XDDD

By Frederic
at 2016-09-23T00:34

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By Oliver
at 2016-09-25T05:34

好久沒在這看到1F的Dora大大，有點懷念小程式 XD

By Valerie
at 2016-09-27T10:34

推!

By Belly
at 2016-09-29T15:34

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By Faithe
at 2016-10-01T20:34

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at 2016-10-04T01:34

先推再看

By Genevieve
at 2016-10-06T06:34

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By Leila
at 2016-10-08T11:34

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at 2016-10-10T16:34

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at 2016-10-12T21:34

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at 2016-10-15T02:34

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By Suhail Hany
at 2016-10-17T07:34

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By Mary
at 2016-10-19T12:34

懷念小程式 +1

By Charlie
at 2016-10-21T17:34

http://i.imgur.com/DOrYylt.jpg

By Kumar
at 2016-10-23T22:34

今天見到卡大真面目...羞

By Frederica
at 2016-10-26T03:34

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By Elma
at 2016-10-28T08:34

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By Joe
at 2016-10-30T13:34

卡大推！

By Anonymous
at 2016-11-01T18:34

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By Emily
at 2016-11-03T23:34

微波圖颱風中心很噁心

By Skylar Davis
at 2016-11-06T04:34

不過卡大沒解說到為何要等穿越台灣才會開始轉

By Necoo
at 2016-11-08T09:34

現在要拚到花蓮以北登陸難度應該很高>"<

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at 2016-11-10T14:34

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By Iris
at 2016-11-12T19:34

穿越後開始轉在昨天的文章有提到

By David
at 2016-11-15T00:34

推卡大

By Caitlin
at 2016-11-17T05:34

顏色好繽紛

By Joseph
at 2016-11-19T10:34

應該是看高壓沉退速度決定吧？

By Elma
at 2016-11-21T15:34

純推不下(誤

By Steve
at 2016-11-23T20:34

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By Ina
at 2016-11-26T01:34

秀姑巒溪準備好了，約清晨登陸

By Anonymous
at 2016-11-28T06:34

感謝卡大

By Joe
at 2016-11-30T11:34

我猜大武登陸

By Necoo
at 2016-12-02T16:34

http://i.imgur.com/t8XwK4L.jpg GG了W環都維持不住

By Susan
at 2016-12-04T21:34

看上去像會在台東登入，南部抖抖的

By Skylar Davis
at 2016-12-07T02:34

卡大真面目在哪看

By Brianna
at 2016-12-09T07:34

推

By Leila
at 2016-12-11T12:34

所以可能會卡鞍型場變很慢嗎

By Odelette
at 2016-12-13T17:34

若要秀姑巒溪的畫得一路西北了

By Todd Johnson
at 2016-12-15T22:34

卡大推

By Madame
at 2016-12-18T03:34

http://imgur.com/K4XoUA6 JMA預測台東~成功間

By Connor
at 2016-12-20T08:34

FB 天氣職人-吳聖宇

By Todd Johnson
at 2016-12-22T13:34

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By Daph Bay
at 2016-12-24T18:34

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at 2016-12-26T23:34

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at 2016-12-29T04:34

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By Donna
at 2016-12-31T09:34

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By Christine
at 2017-01-02T14:34

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By George
at 2017-01-04T19:34

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at 2017-01-07T00:34

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at 2017-01-09T05:34

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at 2017-01-11T10:34

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at 2017-01-13T15:34

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at 2017-01-15T20:34

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at 2017-01-18T01:33

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at 2017-01-20T06:33

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at 2017-01-22T11:33

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at 2017-01-24T16:33

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at 2017-01-26T21:33

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By Olga
at 2017-01-29T02:33

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By Franklin
at 2017-01-31T07:33

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By Michael
at 2017-02-02T12:33

每次颱風天看卡特藍大的分析就覺得安心謝謝分享XD

By Freda
at 2017-02-04T17:33

看樣子要升龍拳了XD

By Jake
at 2017-02-06T22:33

推

By Jessica
at 2017-02-09T03:33

不過真的要注意從海峽北上的路徑，這對西南部不是好
消息

By Valerie
at 2017-02-11T08:33

推

By Hardy
at 2017-02-13T13:33

海峽北上就慘了

By Susan
at 2017-02-15T18:33

推

By Dora
at 2017-02-17T23:33

西部真的要抖了..又遇到大潮..真的海峽北 ....

By Charlotte
at 2017-02-20T04:33

大潮怎麼那麼多？感覺常常颱風來都碰到大潮

By Emily
at 2017-02-22T09:33

一個月有兩次阿..

By Gary
at 2017-02-24T14:33

http://goo.gl/V7Vsw5

By Linda
at 2017-02-26T19:33

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By Rae
at 2017-03-01T00:33

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By Faithe
at 2017-03-03T05:33

By Skylar Davis
at 2017-03-05T10:33

推美圖! 這邊也附一張XD (modis/terra RT 250m)
http://tinyurl.com/h5gu78w

By Catherine
at 2017-03-07T15:33

http://tinyurl.com/zczlv2d

By Linda
at 2017-03-09T20:33

在4點雷達迴波圖中，恆春的小旋窩是因為撞山形成的?

By Elma
at 2017-03-12T01:33

謝謝卡大..要是滯留北上..中南部會喝到飽

尼伯特分析~20160707 - 颱風討論

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