巨爵&薔琵~2015/10/14 - 颱風討論

By Rachel
at 2015-10-14T10:08
at 2015-10-14T10:08
Table of Contents
今年第24號巨爵颱風跟第25號薔琵颱風昨晚陸續形成。
這種兩個颱風同時並立在西北太平洋上的狀況今年已經發生過很多次,
嚴格來講並不能用"雙颱"來形容這種狀況,
因為在氣象上來說,講到雙颱通常是指兩個互相干擾影響彼此路徑的颱風,
也就是所謂的"雙颱效應",
如果兩個颱風之間沒有什麼明顯的相互影響,就不能用"雙颱"來形容,
只能說同時有兩個颱風存在於太平洋上。
目前巨爵颱風跟薔琵颱風都存在中心外露的現象,
低層中心同樣偏向在高層深厚對流雲團的東側,
顯示環境場有較強的東往西向的垂直風切,這種颱風發展會比較慢,
因為垂直結構配合不好,深對流釋放的潛熱對於颱風暖心的建立效率幫助較差,
暖心建立慢的話,颱風中心氣壓下降就會比較慢,表示颱風增強的速度也比較慢。
但是這兩個颱風目前都位於高海溫、高海水熱焓的區域,
暖海水條件仍有利於颱風對流持續爆發,加上海表面向上傳遞的熱通量,
雖然效率比較慢,但是暖心仍會繼續建立,氣壓降低,颱風旋轉就會越強,
進一步慢慢把垂直結構不佳的狀況改善調整過來,
一但垂直結構趨於上下完整,颱風加強的速度就會明顯加快,
甚至出現RI(快速加強)的現象,
預估再過2~3天後,等颱風結構調整到一定程度時就要特別注意強度是否迅速加強。
路徑上來看,要特別注意的仍是西邊的巨爵颱風,短時間內受到太平洋高壓脊的引導,
大致會走向呂宋島東方海面,周末期間預估就會來到呂宋島以東,
此時受到北方西風系統活動的影響,太平洋高壓脊斷裂,引導颱風移動的力量明顯減弱,
巨爵颱風預估會減速,甚至出現滯留打轉的現象,也就是所謂陷入"鞍型場"內,
此時颱風的位置大概就在呂宋島附近,
接下來要觀察颱風東、西兩側高壓脊的後續變化,這時候變動的可能性就會相當複雜,
兩側高壓的消長狀況影響颱風北上的角度、位置以及速度,
對下周台灣的天氣非常關鍵,下周的天氣好壞大概就全看巨爵颱風的變化而定,
目前仍處於觀察階段,暫時還不必太過擔心。
至於東邊的薔琵颱風主要是往西北西移動,未來也會面臨高壓脊斷裂的狀況,
不過它的位置比較東邊,沿著東側高壓逐漸北轉的可能性較大,但是同樣還需要再觀察。
預估巨爵颱風周末靠近呂宋島以東時,台灣附近氣壓梯度加大,會造成東北風增強,
迎風面地區降雨的機會提高,周日(18日)降雨的狀況應該會比周六(17日)要明顯一些,
西半部沿海的偏北強陣風情況也可能會逐漸出現,各地沿海的風浪都有加大的趨勢,
也就是周末的天氣應該已經逐漸受到巨爵外圍的影響了,
請假日有打算安排活動的朋友可能要多加注意。
以上簡單供參考囉~
--
這種兩個颱風同時並立在西北太平洋上的狀況今年已經發生過很多次,
嚴格來講並不能用"雙颱"來形容這種狀況,
因為在氣象上來說,講到雙颱通常是指兩個互相干擾影響彼此路徑的颱風,
也就是所謂的"雙颱效應",
如果兩個颱風之間沒有什麼明顯的相互影響,就不能用"雙颱"來形容,
只能說同時有兩個颱風存在於太平洋上。
目前巨爵颱風跟薔琵颱風都存在中心外露的現象,
低層中心同樣偏向在高層深厚對流雲團的東側,
顯示環境場有較強的東往西向的垂直風切,這種颱風發展會比較慢,
因為垂直結構配合不好,深對流釋放的潛熱對於颱風暖心的建立效率幫助較差,
暖心建立慢的話,颱風中心氣壓下降就會比較慢,表示颱風增強的速度也比較慢。
但是這兩個颱風目前都位於高海溫、高海水熱焓的區域,
暖海水條件仍有利於颱風對流持續爆發,加上海表面向上傳遞的熱通量,
雖然效率比較慢,但是暖心仍會繼續建立,氣壓降低,颱風旋轉就會越強,
進一步慢慢把垂直結構不佳的狀況改善調整過來,
一但垂直結構趨於上下完整,颱風加強的速度就會明顯加快,
甚至出現RI(快速加強)的現象,
預估再過2~3天後,等颱風結構調整到一定程度時就要特別注意強度是否迅速加強。
路徑上來看,要特別注意的仍是西邊的巨爵颱風,短時間內受到太平洋高壓脊的引導,
大致會走向呂宋島東方海面,周末期間預估就會來到呂宋島以東,
此時受到北方西風系統活動的影響,太平洋高壓脊斷裂,引導颱風移動的力量明顯減弱,
巨爵颱風預估會減速,甚至出現滯留打轉的現象,也就是所謂陷入"鞍型場"內,
此時颱風的位置大概就在呂宋島附近,
接下來要觀察颱風東、西兩側高壓脊的後續變化,這時候變動的可能性就會相當複雜,
兩側高壓的消長狀況影響颱風北上的角度、位置以及速度,
對下周台灣的天氣非常關鍵,下周的天氣好壞大概就全看巨爵颱風的變化而定,
目前仍處於觀察階段,暫時還不必太過擔心。
至於東邊的薔琵颱風主要是往西北西移動,未來也會面臨高壓脊斷裂的狀況,
不過它的位置比較東邊,沿著東側高壓逐漸北轉的可能性較大,但是同樣還需要再觀察。
預估巨爵颱風周末靠近呂宋島以東時,台灣附近氣壓梯度加大,會造成東北風增強,
迎風面地區降雨的機會提高,周日(18日)降雨的狀況應該會比周六(17日)要明顯一些,
西半部沿海的偏北強陣風情況也可能會逐漸出現,各地沿海的風浪都有加大的趨勢,
也就是周末的天氣應該已經逐漸受到巨爵外圍的影響了,
請假日有打算安排活動的朋友可能要多加注意。
以上簡單供參考囉~
--
Tags:
颱風
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