杜鵑颱風~2015/09/25 - 颱風討論

By Caroline
at 2015-09-25T17:26
at 2015-09-25T17:26
Table of Contents
今天比較忙,重點式的來看一下這個萬眾矚目的杜鵑颱風,
這個颱風對於中秋節連續假期的天氣影響甚大,打算安排假期計畫的朋友務必要注意。
(1)強度方面,隨著高低層分離的現象消失,
過去一天多的時間杜鵑颱風的環流整合的蠻好的,颱風眼也慢慢繞了出來,
目前這個颱風位於海溫甚高的海域,未來發展的條件頗佳,
靠近台灣時至少會是中度颱風等級,能發展到什麼強度值得觀察。
(2)路徑方面,過去一段時間杜鵑颱風夾在兩個高壓之間,
因此移動緩慢,甚至呈現打轉,
北邊雖然有短波槽通過,但是位置偏北且強度弱,並沒有拉到颱風。
預估未來48~72小時內,北邊的西風帶波動都比較弱,短波槽活動位置偏北,
要對杜鵑颱風產生明顯牽引作用的機會不大,
至於夾住颱風的兩個高壓,西邊的高壓會逐漸向西調整,讓開一條通路,
東邊的高壓則有逐漸西伸的趨勢,
因此未來杜鵑颱風大致會以西北轉西北西的方向移動
(其實下午開始颱風已經開始往西北移動了),
明天當颱風中心過了130E之後,如果東側高壓向西伸展的幅度越明顯,
那麼颱風往西北西調整的角度就會越大,對台灣陸地的威脅也會將會越大,
務必要密切注意明天到後天之間颱風移動角度的變化情況。
http://i.imgur.com/ziCZSNQ.jpg
(3)依照現在的颱風預報路徑及速度,
明天周六(26日)各地天氣大致穩定,颱風外圍環流尚未影響台灣,
預估只有中南部山區可能有局部熱對流發展降雨機會,沿海受長浪影響,風浪會逐漸加大。
後天周日(27日)開始受颱風外圍環流影響,
北部、東北部、東部逐漸轉為陰有短暫陣雨天氣,
下半天起降雨可能加強,提醒山區要留意局部較大雨勢出現的機會。
中南部雲量也會增多,下雨機會則相對較低一些。
沿海風浪甚大,最好能避免海邊或海上活動。
賞月烤肉的話,台中以南地區的機會也是相對高一點。
周一(28日)颱風逐漸靠近,
一直到周二(29日)白天都將是對台灣天氣影響最大的一段時間,
中心距離陸地的遠近會決定影響的程度,不過不論如何,都要提醒大家做好準備,
另外就是周一下半天到晚間收假的安排,很可能受到影響。
大概要等到周二傍晚以後,颱風遠離,影響才會逐漸減小。
這個颱風侵襲期間正好適逢天文大潮,加上颱風的推波助瀾,
沿海地區請慎防海水倒灌的現象發生。
以上簡單供參考囉~
--
這個颱風對於中秋節連續假期的天氣影響甚大,打算安排假期計畫的朋友務必要注意。
(1)強度方面,隨著高低層分離的現象消失,
過去一天多的時間杜鵑颱風的環流整合的蠻好的,颱風眼也慢慢繞了出來,
目前這個颱風位於海溫甚高的海域,未來發展的條件頗佳,
靠近台灣時至少會是中度颱風等級,能發展到什麼強度值得觀察。
(2)路徑方面,過去一段時間杜鵑颱風夾在兩個高壓之間,
因此移動緩慢,甚至呈現打轉,
北邊雖然有短波槽通過,但是位置偏北且強度弱,並沒有拉到颱風。
預估未來48~72小時內,北邊的西風帶波動都比較弱,短波槽活動位置偏北,
要對杜鵑颱風產生明顯牽引作用的機會不大,
至於夾住颱風的兩個高壓,西邊的高壓會逐漸向西調整,讓開一條通路,
東邊的高壓則有逐漸西伸的趨勢,
因此未來杜鵑颱風大致會以西北轉西北西的方向移動
(其實下午開始颱風已經開始往西北移動了),
明天當颱風中心過了130E之後,如果東側高壓向西伸展的幅度越明顯,
那麼颱風往西北西調整的角度就會越大,對台灣陸地的威脅也會將會越大,
務必要密切注意明天到後天之間颱風移動角度的變化情況。
http://i.imgur.com/ziCZSNQ.jpg

(3)依照現在的颱風預報路徑及速度,
明天周六(26日)各地天氣大致穩定,颱風外圍環流尚未影響台灣,
預估只有中南部山區可能有局部熱對流發展降雨機會,沿海受長浪影響,風浪會逐漸加大。
後天周日(27日)開始受颱風外圍環流影響,
北部、東北部、東部逐漸轉為陰有短暫陣雨天氣,
下半天起降雨可能加強,提醒山區要留意局部較大雨勢出現的機會。
中南部雲量也會增多,下雨機會則相對較低一些。
沿海風浪甚大,最好能避免海邊或海上活動。
賞月烤肉的話,台中以南地區的機會也是相對高一點。
周一(28日)颱風逐漸靠近,
一直到周二(29日)白天都將是對台灣天氣影響最大的一段時間,
中心距離陸地的遠近會決定影響的程度,不過不論如何,都要提醒大家做好準備,
另外就是周一下半天到晚間收假的安排,很可能受到影響。
大概要等到周二傍晚以後,颱風遠離,影響才會逐漸減小。
這個颱風侵襲期間正好適逢天文大潮,加上颱風的推波助瀾,
沿海地區請慎防海水倒灌的現象發生。
以上簡單供參考囉~
--
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颱風
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