杰拉華現況 - 颱風討論

By Sierra Rose
at 2012-09-23T15:11

Table of Contents

「杰拉華」是由馬來西亞提供的名字

原意為鯉魚

而現在看來這隻鯉魚王快要進化成暴鯉龍了[email protected]@

JMA的強度評價已經由早上的35m/s調升到45m/s

而且已經預估三天後會達到爆表的60m/s!!!

<26日15時の予報>
強さ猛烈な
存在地域フィリピンの東
予報円の中心北緯 18度40分(18.7度) 東経 128度25分(128.4度)
進行方向、速さ北 10km/h(6kt)
中心気圧 910hPa
中心付近の最大風速 60m/s(115kt)

CWB也在剛剛調到45m/s 氣壓968->940

按照現在的預報接下來三四天內鯉魚王所在的環境都好的

前途無量阿.....

打算和女帝梅姬看齊嘛??

--
JMA也對隔壁的93W 發布GW了

<23日15時の実況>
強さ熱帯低気圧
存在地域マリアナ諸島
中心位置北緯 15度35分(15.6度) 東経 140度30分(140.5度)
進行方向、速さ北 15km/h(7kt)

--

Tags: 颱風

All Comments

By Odelette
at 2012-09-24T05:31

這加強會不會太快了..

By Daph Bay
at 2012-09-24T19:52

EC最新預測東部近岸北上....

By Hedda
at 2012-09-25T10:12

不要相信那個數值搖搖擺擺的根來亂差不多

By Ingrid
at 2012-09-26T00:32

115kts相當於CWB的58m/s，先看看能不能達到妮妲

By Eden
at 2012-09-26T14:52

薔蜜也是115kts，但CWB也只給53/63，所以不用驚訝XD

By Puput
at 2012-09-27T05:12

想請問現在輻散通道是不是還未完全打開？

By Connor
at 2012-09-27T19:33

跟三巴颱風好像

By Bennie
at 2012-09-28T09:53

問一個不專業問題，這颱風可能成為西北颱+共伴颱嗎?

By Steve
at 2012-09-29T00:13

假設最近大氣變化都符合預測，我覺得有那麼一點可能~

By Tristan Cohan
at 2012-09-29T14:33

93w 發GW了!!

By Sandy
at 2012-09-30T04:53

鯉魚不想輸給鯰魚哼哼

By Charlie
at 2012-09-30T19:14

讓我直覺想到2010年的鯰魚xDDD
回Lxr...西北颱沒有什麼特別的定義

By Anthony
at 2012-10-01T09:34

只知道目前預測圖上來說颱風接近的時候東北季風有增

By Zenobia
at 2012-10-01T23:54

強的趨勢...

By Thomas
at 2012-10-02T14:14

五家系集數值模式集合的平均
http://i.minus.com/ieuFTYkG3Yvnp.gif

By Edith
at 2012-10-03T04:34

60= =

By Franklin
at 2012-10-03T18:55

久違的大怒神

By Dinah
at 2012-10-04T09:15

西北颱有明確定義的。

By Enid
at 2012-10-04T23:35

基本上會共伴是颱風從巴士海峽過去+東北季風

By Jacob
at 2012-10-05T13:55

一暖一冷導致強烈對流造成大豪雨

By Suhail Hany
at 2012-10-06T04:15

真的有耶...CWB有QA...xDDD http://ppt.cc/olqJ

By Anonymous
at 2012-10-06T18:36

看來明天有機會變強颱

By Andy
at 2012-10-07T08:56

該不會三巴2012年風王寶座坐不到一個月就被拉下來了?

By Zora
at 2012-10-07T23:16

我倒不認為一定要走巴士，

By Adele
at 2012-10-08T13:36

瑞伯象神不走巴士也被歸為共伴颱，

By David
at 2012-10-09T03:56

看到標題以為走錯版.....0.0

By Vanessa
at 2012-10-09T18:17

我覺得是否共伴還是要看颱風近台時對北部東部造成之
風雨而定

By Brianna
at 2012-10-10T08:37

關於共伴，請看：#1FO5qfv3卡大文章

By Hardy
at 2012-10-10T22:57

鯉魚喝水中~ 都不動 =口=

By Hamiltion
at 2012-10-11T13:17

看起來去日本機率真的蠻高的

By Ursula
at 2012-10-12T03:37

93 GW 會不會被併呢....?

By Jacky
at 2012-10-12T17:58

瑞伯和象神是南海北上經巴士到東海岸啦！有過巴士喔

By Zora
at 2012-10-13T08:18

水系+飛行系皮卡丘電一下就死了

By Madame
at 2012-10-13T22:38

我認為瑞伯和象神從南海到巴士這段在台灣降雨是共伴
沿著東海岸北上這段是本身環流的降雨

By Lydia
at 2012-10-14T12:58

請問09/28會來台灣嗎？可以連放三天假嗎？

By Skylar Davis
at 2012-10-15T03:18

老J最新一報顛峰強度上修到130kts，近台時110kts

By Hedda
at 2012-10-15T17:39

不會 9/28颱風會被帶土時空轉移所以沒放假

By Isabella
at 2012-10-16T07:59

http://i.imgur.com/MYZuQ.png 開始有天女散花的感覺

By Tracy
at 2012-10-16T22:19

小J最新一報調升到48m/s，路徑還是較老J和CWB為東

By Carol
at 2012-10-17T12:39

8/3延期到9/28拍婚紗，只能祈禱了@@

By Joseph
at 2012-10-18T02:59

看來是顆曲球

By Isla
at 2012-10-18T17:20

我看寫JMA給100kts耶不過氣壓925 12h加深率惜敗三巴
三巴-60hPa/12hr 杰拉華-55hPa/12hr

By Quanna
at 2012-10-19T07:40

http://i.imgur.com/x813h.jpg

By Barb Cronin
at 2012-10-19T22:00

就看CWB是打算給48還是51m/s了

By Jacob
at 2012-10-20T12:20

反正風王不是看有沒有RI XD

By Andrew
at 2012-10-21T02:40

它們都不只RI 還是EI(有這縮寫嗎?)

By Megan
at 2012-10-21T17:01

http://tinyurl.com/8rlh5up 共伴效應

By Cara
at 2012-10-22T07:21

在醞釀雙眼皮了??也太快了點= =

By Jack
at 2012-10-22T21:41

維基是說RD呢XD

By Sierra Rose
at 2012-10-23T12:01

印象也是deepening這個字拿來指中心氣壓變低
加深反意詞是填塞filling

By Ula
at 2012-10-24T02:21

準備開賭盤哦…（敲碗）

By Isabella
at 2012-10-24T16:42

環境很好的話,眼強置換應該會很快

By Tom
at 2012-10-25T07:02

而且強度也可能在換完眼牆後再增強

By Barb Cronin
at 2012-10-25T21:22

09年的米勒就是一個很好的例子

By Yuri
at 2012-10-26T11:42

一直在等看看進化成暴鯉龍後會不會把93w攪死
如果這樣路徑可能有變

By Hedda
at 2012-10-27T02:02

是怎麼變？往日本跑嗎？

By Aaliyah
at 2012-10-27T16:23

應該會偏西偏快...吧

By Queena
at 2012-10-28T06:43

看IR動畫雲圖頗有趣的,杰拉華明顯在原地打轉XDD

By Connor
at 2012-10-28T21:03

JTWC 0900Z: 12.5N 129.0E(+0.3N +0.1E) 115kts(+15)

By Hedwig
at 2012-10-29T11:23

昨天還以為是不會來的弱颱結果變大危機

By Hedy
at 2012-10-30T01:43

攪死93w就不會是小鋼炮了，可能會和布拉萬一樣變虛胖

By Dora
at 2012-10-30T16:04

請問不影響北台灣的機率高嗎，感覺不管是穿巴士或沿

By Carolina Franco
at 2012-10-31T06:24

請問各位大大影響澎湖到臺北的飛機機率大嗎 29號

By Poppy
at 2012-10-31T20:44

近幾年的颱風出現雙眼皮後好像抖沒更強的例子@@?

By Tristan Cohan
at 2012-11-01T11:04

這隻估到60m\s應該是會比較少出現的置換後增強吧？

By Audriana
at 2012-11-02T01:24

EI 可能是指Explode Intensify 爆發式增強吧

By Eartha
at 2012-11-02T15:45

感覺應該會東偏連東海岸都沒機會了?

By Isabella
at 2012-11-03T06:05

線再談路徑跟擲爻差不多...

By Isla
at 2012-11-03T20:25

5天後的路徑...還早啦

By Quintina
at 2012-11-04T10:45

三圍6.8 / 927.3mb/134.8kt

By Kyle
at 2012-11-05T01:05

CWB 給48... 上限了~ 不過還是150 ~~
中颱

By Kristin
at 2012-11-05T15:26

纁|東修了

By Thomas
at 2012-11-06T05:46

cwb ..東邊北上

By Ethan
at 2012-11-06T20:06

預測路境變成無害颱風了嗎

By Andy
at 2012-11-07T10:26

擲爻的命中率還比較高吧？

By Jake
at 2012-11-08T00:46

CWB預測在台灣東部外海停留超過48小時光這點就....

By Leila
at 2012-11-08T15:07

只要在接近台灣一點這樣的停留時間就很OX了

By Jake
at 2012-11-09T05:27

我覺得不管怎麼走都不會是無害颱風...
在東部海面上的速度如果真的都只有10公里出頭

By Belly
at 2012-11-09T19:47

轉向點在台灣東南海面上怎麼樣都不是一件好事情

By Dora
at 2012-11-10T10:07

難保不會在東部海面上隨便亂飄...

By Noah
at 2012-11-11T00:27

老J最新一報竟然出現這麼抖的路徑...

By Dinah
at 2012-11-11T14:48

http://ppt.cc/2B~H 另外巔峰也預測杰拉華會有貓5了

By Isabella
at 2012-11-12T05:08

請問一下貓5是什麼意思@@?

By George
at 2012-11-12T19:28

Cat.5 美國國家颶風中心的熱帶風暴等級最高一級

By Ida
at 2012-11-13T09:48

CAT.5吧強度

By Ida
at 2012-11-14T00:08

"每分鐘"平均風速>250km/h

By Odelette
at 2012-11-14T14:29

請問可以看到各國預測路徑的是哪個網站?

By Sarah
at 2012-11-15T04:49

CAT5

By Franklin
at 2012-11-15T19:09

SOR 前兩篇的推文有抱歉

By Ingrid
at 2012-11-16T09:29

http://asiatcforecast.co.cc/

By Emily
at 2012-11-16T23:49

謝謝熱心的各位~~

By Rae
at 2012-11-17T14:10

老J那路徑是說明颱風開啟避撞模式嗎XDDD\

By Poppy
at 2012-11-18T04:30

老J那條要小心被地形直接拉進來

By Zora
at 2012-11-18T18:50

地形影響沒有這麼神通廣大啦XD

By James
at 2012-11-19T09:10

而且要考慮到那時候北方槽線可是盡全力在拉他
被吸進來難度很高

By Anthony
at 2012-11-19T23:30

噢那好阿不要來是最好的XD

By Oscar
at 2012-11-20T13:51

JMA的其中一份數值又大改了XD,趨向菲律賓北部一帶,看
來各家預報還有得修正...

By Donna
at 2012-11-21T04:11

17898 8/29有很多相關網站需要的人可以去抓

By Aaliyah
at 2012-11-21T18:31

ec好像預測直接在斬颱山反彈~~

By Genevieve
at 2012-11-22T08:51

好像有雙眼內眼消散中外眼直徑約100km

By Valerie
at 2012-11-22T23:11

JTWC也滿衰的這次鼓起勇氣報大增強就遇到雙眼

By Isabella
at 2012-11-23T13:32

杰拉華的生成到現在位置好像跟之前天秤一樣

By Rae
at 2012-11-24T03:52

一覺起來杰拉華就從TS變成貓4....

By Hardy
at 2012-11-24T18:12

感覺會向東偏

By Jacob
at 2012-11-25T08:32

不要來啊我想賞月~~

By Zenobia
at 2012-11-25T22:52

漂亮的針眼出現了應該是第一次到頂

By Sierra Rose
at 2012-11-26T13:13

CWB給50m/s..好特別的數字

By Andy
at 2012-11-27T03:33

就還不想升強颱啊XD~928百帕也是少見數字

By Andy
at 2012-11-27T17:53

共伴開始了…宜蘭冬山3小時91mm

By Linda
at 2012-11-28T08:13

還好啦~~梅花也是50m/s封頂啊~~

By Michael
at 2012-11-28T22:33

東北季風吧低層東北中高層偏西風降雨分佈也很正常

By Ida
at 2012-11-29T12:54

CWB的路徑有點西修靠近台灣..........

By Annie
at 2012-11-30T03:14

CWB修正為一路西北了....

By Michael
at 2012-11-30T17:34

各家路徑開始統一了……中秋節啊T^T

By Agnes
at 2012-12-01T07:54

看起來變慢了 ...

By Rebecca
at 2012-12-01T22:14

JMA最新一報預報，挺接近台灣的...

By Enid
at 2012-12-02T12:35

CWB升強颱,53M/S

By Todd Johnson
at 2012-12-03T02:55

禮拜六在宜蘭要結婚宴客~~請問宜蘭影響大嗎??

By Rae
at 2012-12-03T17:15

CWB這次真特立獨行，路徑不參考小J，強度也不理小J～

By Brianna
at 2012-12-04T07:35

好迷你的強颱

By Sarah
at 2012-12-04T21:55

看起來會是擦邊球風圈擴大到200KM還OK啦

By Andy
at 2012-12-05T12:16

各家路徑差不多一致了

By Susan
at 2012-12-06T02:36

93W也要變輕颱了藤原效應

By Cara
at 2012-12-06T16:56

請問9/29(六)對高雄影響大嗎?? 周六要出國說, 謝謝!!

By Agatha
at 2012-12-07T07:16

感覺應該影響不大了

By Liam
at 2012-12-07T21:36

秋天的颱風就算是擦邊球也不能掉以輕心~

By Ingrid
at 2012-12-08T11:57

可以水桶那位 "感覺"先生嗎....= =

By Wallis
at 2012-12-09T02:17

說不定他能"感應"颱風... = ="

By Harry
at 2012-12-09T16:37

跟蘇拉來時某個神眉好像...

By Tom
at 2012-12-10T06:57

水桶他+1

By Selena
at 2012-12-10T21:17

等特殊天氣事件期間看板管理規則出來還在亂就..

By Belly
at 2012-12-11T11:38

水桶"感覺"先生+1 = =

By Lydia
at 2012-12-12T01:58

By Steve
at 2012-12-12T16:18

By Ivy
at 2012-12-13T06:38

杰拉華現況 - 颱風討論

All Comments

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