注意熱帶擾動99W - 颱風討論
By Kristin
at 2016-07-02T09:09
at 2016-07-02T09:09
Table of Contents
這兩天大家開始關注熱帶擾動的發展，
目前在菲律賓東南方逐漸有熱帶擾動低壓環流建立，並且被給予臨時編號99W。
從東南亞的850百帕氣流圖來看，
http://i.imgur.com/u2Ji1s5.png
西南季風的位置其實是位於孟加拉灣、中南半島再深入中國長江流域，
菲律賓到西太平洋低緯度區域的季風槽並不很明顯，
因此這個99W看起來沒有直接受到西南季風的支持，
而是由來自南半球的跨赤道氣流西風，
配合副高壓南側東風交會所產生的正渦度區發展而來。
雲圖上看對流發展還蠻活躍的，加上位於正渦度區內，
以及副高壓北抬，垂直風切減小，有利於擾動繼續發展，
可能增強為熱帶性低氣壓甚至今年第1號颱風。
http://i.imgur.com/54GbWBs.png
未來這1~2天內，99W持續醞釀發展，移動還不會很明顯，
不過等到它的結構比較完整之後，大致會沿著太平洋高壓邊緣移動，
將是下周天氣觀察的重點，
是否靠近台灣將會影響下周後半台灣附近的天氣型態，值得密切觀察。
簡單供參考~
--
目前在菲律賓東南方逐漸有熱帶擾動低壓環流建立，並且被給予臨時編號99W。
從東南亞的850百帕氣流圖來看，
http://i.imgur.com/u2Ji1s5.png
西南季風的位置其實是位於孟加拉灣、中南半島再深入中國長江流域，
菲律賓到西太平洋低緯度區域的季風槽並不很明顯，
因此這個99W看起來沒有直接受到西南季風的支持，
而是由來自南半球的跨赤道氣流西風，
配合副高壓南側東風交會所產生的正渦度區發展而來。
雲圖上看對流發展還蠻活躍的，加上位於正渦度區內，
以及副高壓北抬，垂直風切減小，有利於擾動繼續發展，
可能增強為熱帶性低氣壓甚至今年第1號颱風。
http://i.imgur.com/54GbWBs.png
未來這1~2天內，99W持續醞釀發展，移動還不會很明顯，
不過等到它的結構比較完整之後，大致會沿著太平洋高壓邊緣移動，
將是下周天氣觀察的重點，
是否靠近台灣將會影響下周後半台灣附近的天氣型態，值得密切觀察。
簡單供參考~
--
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