熱帶性低氣壓99W~2016/08/08 - 颱風討論

By Elizabeth
at 2016-08-08T10:13
at 2016-08-08T10:13
Table of Contents
位於台灣家門口的熱帶低氣壓99W(紅圈),
雖然已經形成2天,但是發展始終不理想,
看起來跟高空的冷心低壓(藍圈)有很大關係,
http://imgur.com/a/WKDMi
從位置上來看,兩者幾乎重疊,
因此高層輻散很弱,甚至被冷心低壓的高層輻合所支配,
加上冷心低壓捲入的乾空氣明顯,
垂直風切也較大,對流發展有限,而且只集中在風切方向下游,也就是99W中心的東北側,
低層環流中心(LLCC)一直都是外露狀態,暖心難以建立,強度也就不易發展。
目前來看,99W應該會維持熱帶性低氣壓強度,並於今晚到明天白天通過台灣北方海面,
對流雲團集中在環流北側,因此直接帶來的降雨可能有限,但還是要持續留意。
主要的天氣變化除了局部性的環流雨以外,午後山區熱對流發展帶來的大雷雨是主戲,
天氣狀態並不穩定,請大家這兩天出門要記得攜帶雨具。
--
雖然已經形成2天,但是發展始終不理想,
看起來跟高空的冷心低壓(藍圈)有很大關係,
http://imgur.com/a/WKDMi
從位置上來看,兩者幾乎重疊,
因此高層輻散很弱,甚至被冷心低壓的高層輻合所支配,
加上冷心低壓捲入的乾空氣明顯,
垂直風切也較大,對流發展有限,而且只集中在風切方向下游,也就是99W中心的東北側,
低層環流中心(LLCC)一直都是外露狀態,暖心難以建立,強度也就不易發展。
目前來看,99W應該會維持熱帶性低氣壓強度,並於今晚到明天白天通過台灣北方海面,
對流雲團集中在環流北側,因此直接帶來的降雨可能有限,但還是要持續留意。
主要的天氣變化除了局部性的環流雨以外,午後山區熱對流發展帶來的大雷雨是主戲,
天氣狀態並不穩定,請大家這兩天出門要記得攜帶雨具。
--
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