熱帶風暴漢娜 - 第二十九報 - 颱風討論

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WTNT43 KNHC 040254
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

HANNA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE ITS FORMATION IT
HAS FOUGHT TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE
EFFECTS OF LAND. FURTHERMORE...AT TIMES HANNA HAS RESEMBLED A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HANNA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS DECREASING AND HANNA IS DEVELOPING
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THESE CHANGES IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER HANNA
HAVE BEEN ACCURATELY FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS...AND IS
BASED ON A 68 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED AS THE PLANE DEPARTED
THE CYCLONE. WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HANNA IS
FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO BUT IT COULD
OCCUR EARLIER. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES HANNA BEYOND 70
KNOTS.

漢娜是個頑強的熱帶氣旋. 自從生成以來已經和兩個高層低壓鬥過... 強勁的北向風切
和地形效應. 此外... 此時漢娜已重整為副熱帶氣旋. 今晚的表面和飛機觀測繼續顯示
漢娜有一個大型漩渦以及衛星影像推測風切正降低並且漢娜正發展高層幅散中.
這些在漢娜的高環流的變化已由大部份的數值氣象預測模型精準地預報.
初始強度為五十五節...並根據於同時飛機離開氣旋時測量到的六十八節飛行高度風.
隨著更加有利的高層環境...一些增強已在官方預報裡指示出來. 預報漢娜在一到二日
回到颶風等級,但是這可能發生的更早. 沒有一個指引增強漢娜超過七十節

THE CENTER HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE AND FIXES
FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY SUGGEST
THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11. SOME OF THIS MOTION COULD HAVE
RESULTED FROM REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA...A NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK
MODELS ARE NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH. HOWEVER...THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE HAS HANNA MOVING OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS. BECAUSE HANNA IS A LARGE CYCLONE...A HURRICANE WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST EARLY THURSDAY.

中心已旋轉環繞一個大型氣旋性旋迴,從偵察機的定位和從本署的觀測浮台資料
推測初始運動為三三五度/十一節. 這些運動中可能產生自中心的重整. 自從副熱帶脊
正向漢娜的東北邊擴張... 一個西北的移動應該在接下來一到二日繼續隨著
沿高壓西緣逐漸轉北移動. 路徑模型未緊促一起以及路徑預報的可性度不怎麼高
不管怎樣... 預報路徑散佈範圍的中間有和那移動於卡羅萊納海岸的上空或是接近.
因為漢娜是個大型氣旋... 颶風警戒將可能在星期四早發布於美國東南州部分海岸

A NOAA JET HAS SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT AND THE DATA IS BEING
USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS.

一架本署的噴射機在今晚已對環境取樣並且資料用於零時的全球模型運算

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Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)

Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942


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