(生成)熱帶風暴艾克 - 第二報 - 颱風討論

[熱帶風暴艾克在本日於維德角西邊生成]


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WTNT44 KNHC 012043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED...CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS
BASIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IKE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH
AND THE LOW SHEAR...IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS.

THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN THE HWRF.

THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

在衛星影像中雲層和低壓組合活動有良好的組織化. 對流已增加...曲雲帶已更加清楚
以及在全象限有良好的幅散. 從TAFB和SAB的德沃夏克T值已增加到3.0德沃夏克分級.
根據此數據... 本系統已升級為起始強度四十五節的熱帶風暴艾克. 由路徑上的溫暖海洋
和低風切... 艾克被預測在約三十六小時內升級為颶風.

增強速率和SHIPS指引模型一致但比GFDL低,以及比HWRF明顯地更低

後者做出艾克在北伊斯帕尼奧拉成為強烈颶風


IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE STORM
IS ALREADY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH.

艾克正往西移動,二七五度/十四節. 根據大部分的全球模型,風暴已位於
正建立中以及往西擴張的強副熱帶脊以南. 此格式報出在接下來二到三日
一個正西到西北西的路徑. 此後...當高壓更向西建立... 氣旋應該轉西或更向西南西.
官方預報和前次一報非常相似以及跟隨模型的一致性. 自從路徑指引持續有點緊奏...
預報可性度依然相對地高





(如果可以的話請對翻譯裡修正一些語意)

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Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)

Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942


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