第四級颶風古斯塔夫 - 颱風討論

沒有注意到二十三報故只針對二十四號特別報告

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Gustav_(2008)

In advisory #23 at 11:00 a.m EDT on August 30, Gustav was upgraded to a
Category 3 hurricane on the SSHS scale (described as a "dangerous category
three") [20] with sustained winds near 125 mph (195 km/h),[20] as it neared
the west end of Cuba (including the Havana section). In special advisory
number 24 it strengthened further into an "Extremely Dangerous" Category 4
hurricane early that afternoon.[21]

在八月三十日東岸時間十一時的第二十三報,古斯塔夫以升級為SSHS分級的三級颶風(形容
"危險的三級")帶著時速近一二五哩持續風速, 當她接近古巴西邊(包含哈瓦那區). 在今
午稍早的第二十四號特別報告指出她已更加增強到"極端危險"第四級颶風


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2008/al07/al072008.public_a.022.shtml

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE GUSTAV INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

.....
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 120
MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A DANGEROUS
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER WESTERN CUBA AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL THERE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
.....




000
WTNT42 KNHC 301823
TCDAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

SO MUCH FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF GUSTAV.
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WE CONVEYED THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WAS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE MORE
THAN WHAT WE HAD IN MIND IN SUCH A SHORT TIME. THE HURRICANE HAS
REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT...HAVING
BEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WIND VALUE IS BASED ON A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF 141
KT...SINCE THE 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE USUALLY WORKS
RATHER WELL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES
INDICATE THAT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12...RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE 1500 UTC FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN
MADE...BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH
96 HOURS. GUSTAV COULD INTENSIFY SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS OVER WATER...AND ONE CANNOT RULE OUT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY
BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 140
KT...CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT WILL STILL BE HIGH...FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL
WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS.


SO MUCH FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF GUSTAV.
昨日此時我們表達了快速增強是可能的...但這筆我們想的時間還要更短.
颶風帶著一二五節的強度已接近到第四級狀態...在二十四小時前還只是個
熱帶風暴. 最大表面風速值是根據一四一節的七零零毫巴飛行高度風...SINCE
THE 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE USUALLY WORKS
RATHER WELL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. 飛機定位指出
西北運動已重啟...以及起始運動推估為三一五度/十二浬...剛好在前次預報的路徑上.
尚未對一五零零世界時的預報路徑做出改變...但強度預報已上修直到九十六小時.
古斯塔夫可能在接下來數小時再加強些... 以及
不能排除在通過古巴前以第五級颶風之態出現. 現在預報報出一四零節的尖峰
... 第五級強度... 位於南灣區海洋熱容將會依然高溫...之後在北灣區海熱容低的海域
逐漸的減弱

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Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)

Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942


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