第四號颱風「南卡」形成 - 颱風討論

By Genevieve
at 2009-06-23T15:33
at 2009-06-23T15:33
Table of Contents
繼 JTWC 之後,日本氣象廳也在下午將 04W 升級
臺灣時間今天下午二時,JMA 定位在北緯 12.1 度,東經 125.6 度
同一時間 JTWC 則定位在北緯 11.3 度,東經 125.8 度(兩者差真多...)
CWB 則定位在北緯 11.9 度,東經 125.7 度(...)
短期內仍將向西北西移動,但穿過菲律賓後有偏北趨勢
由於各數值預報對於轉向時間、角度等分歧甚大,
是否影響臺灣尚言之過早,值得密切注意
補充:幾個數值模式的路徑預測(初始時間:6/23/12Z)
http://tinyurl.com/lxzv8o
推 youngscott :看了只有一個感想~隨時有降格可能 XD 998到底 06/23 15:38
推 typhoonnat :這個路徑...能撐到巴士海峽嗎= = 06/23 15:39
推 typhoonnat :看到現在這個樣子...真的好像風神 06/23 15:42
推 typhoonnat :大陸人:雖然蓮花沒有發本島陸警 但也讓台灣吃到雨帶 06/23 15:53
→ typhoonnat :何時給貪婪的台灣來一次狠狠的教訓 (靠`真想扁人) 06/23 15:54
推 logdog :.....無語 他們在想什麼 06/23 15:55
→ logdog :美軍這一報真的很有意思 是被西風槽勾到往東北衝? 06/23 15:56
推 J28 :那個颱風~~暴風圈好大~~請問會變小嗎@@? 06/23 15:56
→ logdog :估計會的 06/23 15:57
推 tcytc :JMA跟JTWC路徑只差一點,不過結果應該會差很大XD 06/23 15:57
→ logdog :暴風圈很大? 我怎麼不覺得 06/23 15:58
→ tcytc :要是穿過呂宋島,不死也半條命了... 06/23 15:58
推 typhoonnat :到台灣來剩下TD嗎= = 06/23 15:59
推 J28 :我不太懂@@"只是看衛星雲圖~~好大@@" 06/23 15:59
→ logdog :JTWC太神了 南卡真的會走那條窄窄的鋼索過去嗎 06/23 15:59
→ logdog :有一半不是暴風圈吧... 06/23 15:59
→ logdog :我有看過 06/23 15:59
→ logdog :JTWC說南卡中心不會穿過呂宋島...XDXD 06/23 16:00
→ J28 :那會夾帶他周圍的雲層一起過來嗎@@? 06/23 16:00
推 VideoLand :到底是象神還是風神QQ...我怎麼找沒有風神颱風的路徑 06/23 16:00
推 skyning :JTWC怎麼神法阿!?~XDD 06/23 16:00
→ logdog :走JMA路徑的話...佛祖保佑...XD 06/23 16:01
→ logdog :自己看就知了 穿過菲國的角度的剛剛好不會上陸 06/23 16:02
→ logdog :更正 不會上呂宋 06/23 16:02
推 typhoonnat :CWB升格了 和JTWC比較像 06/23 16:04
推 youngscott :不用爭了~CWB一週圖直接來個蓮花第二 06/23 16:04
→ youngscott :一樣從福建登陸轉TD然後又經過台灣北部海面 06/23 16:04
→ logdog :覺得可能會去華南 06/23 16:05
推 youngscott :log大你為什麼一直堅持? 繼cwb和日本都預測後 06/23 16:06
→ youngscott :你還是說去華南? 06/23 16:07
推 typhoonnat :CWB一週預測 登陸福建也算華南..... 06/23 16:07
推 VideoLand :感謝XD 06/23 16:08
→ typhoonnat :所以 到底是像 風神 象神 還是蓮花 我們看下去... 06/23 16:09
→ logdog :雙J的預測沒有太大的改變 不過現在進入菲律賓的位置 06/23 16:11
→ logdog :和04W本身的移速 還有各大氣象單位的預測 06/23 16:12
→ logdog :有像0806風神...當然大氣環境有差 我們看下去 06/23 16:12
→ logdog :對了 連時間點好像也相差不算遠 06/23 16:14
→ logdog :風神是6/18 現在是6/23 06/23 16:14
→ logdog :目前暴風圈集中在系統的右側 06/23 16:15
推 toshiba011 :囧...我預計七月15.16.17.18要去中部玩的說......... 06/23 16:31
推 tcytc :樓上你是來鬧的嗎? 06/23 16:34
→ TomParis :他是說南卡會走韋恩路徑 06/23 16:36
推 packie :JMA路線~剛好都走平原段 XD 06/23 16:42
→ irina0629 :七月中跟南卡有什麼關係? 06/23 16:48
推 logdog :我知道風神的例子或許有些極端 所以我也沒有要特別 06/23 17:06
→ logdog :堅持...目前我眼睛也是睜的大大的看他要怎走 06/23 17:08
→ logdog :現在馬尼拉可能比我們還緊張吧 06/23 17:10
推 inuneko :6/27 痞子英雄封街派對在高雄夢時代啊~~(南下的人) 06/23 18:38
推 DoraBoy :從雲塗上來看最近幾小時持續偏西 看來會從島群通過 06/23 18:46
→ DoraBoy :強度不會受到太大影響 而且南卡的對流好強喔XD 06/23 18:47
推 DoraBoy :唯一要擔心的還是風切 菲律賓西方的風切近三小時略為 06/23 18:51
→ DoraBoy :加大 06/23 18:52
推 spyapple :29要去畢旅.... 06/23 18:53
推 DoraBoy :我27和28還要去台東說XD 06/23 18:54
推 Habai :25~28在澎湖... 06/23 18:54
推 lahiboy :不用理會那些大陸人在講什麼,他們三聚氰胺喝太多了 06/23 19:42
推 kikikocat :26~29要去蘭嶼...>"< 06/23 21:31
推 PINGS20 :29去澎湖 希望沒有影響... 06/23 22:46
推 logdog :現在只剩JTWC認為不會登陸華南 其他的都認為會登陸 06/23 22:48
→ logdog :華南 當然還很難說 只是南卡在登陸薩馬島後一段西折 06/23 22:49
推 youngscott :有嗎? CWB和HKO都沒畫到登陸吧 06/23 22:49
→ logdog :不知道會不會影響到進南海後的登陸地 06/23 22:50
→ logdog :CWB 一周預測有 06/23 22:50
→ youngscott :喔 那個已經不準了~預測都在變阿~晚上和下午又不同了 06/23 22:51
→ logdog :CWB JMA HKO CMA PAGASA目前都指向華南 JTWC有往西調 06/23 22:53
→ logdog :不知道會不會也調過去 又是那副高的關係... 06/23 22:54
→ logdog :西折薩馬島穿越菲中 對南卡強度的影響會較小了 06/23 22:55
推 youngscott :這就不知了~也不知西折會不會再修北回來 06/23 22:55
推 tcytc :菲律賓群島果然是颱風之母,南卡發展真是令人驚奇 06/23 22:56
→ youngscott :就跟當時蓮花一度東折一樣 還是正北回去了 06/23 22:56
→ logdog :若不撞呂宋搞不好出眼都有可能 06/23 22:56
→ tcytc :副高在西伸,南海風切似乎有在改善中... 06/23 22:57
→ youngscott :說到發展~看對流和T值都在飆~但兩J和我們強度都不動 06/23 22:57
推 logdog :應該是還沒有整合到跟中心對稱吧 只要不撞呂宋 一切 06/23 23:05
→ logdog :都好說...反之...佛祖保佑 06/23 23:05
→ logdog :T直是電腦算的 會有很多東西沒考慮進去 以人的經驗 06/23 23:07
→ logdog :補足 06/23 23:07
推 zadla2002 :嗯 T值是電腦算的XD 南卡算整合的很順利 06/23 23:44
→ zadla2002 :撞到呂宋就哭哭了XD 06/23 23:44
推 ffmuteki9 :看了CWB、JMA、JTWC的預報,現在是只差在離臺灣多遠 06/23 23:48
→ ffmuteki9 :、會不會登陸而已是不是XD 06/23 23:48
推 seeback :講會不會影響台灣還太早,除非副高可以強過四天 06/23 23:52
推 logdog :速度不慢下來 轉向也可能來不及就撞上華南了 06/23 23:57
推 youngscott :以日本這報來看 它往西北走了 速度也慢下來 06/24 00:06
推 logdog :那就還有的瞧 不過線在在菲中 地形影響較大 06/24 00:15
→ logdog :要看看剛出南海的方向和移速如何 06/24 00:15
推 typhoonnat :大陸論壇 有台灣和大陸人戰起來了 06/24 00:18
→ typhoonnat :好像又是因為....盼風 06/24 00:18
推 zadla2002 :.....管他們 那邊常吵成一團= = 06/24 00:20
推 seeback :孟加拉灣那佗雲系如果跟現在這個颱風會合,那會科科 06/24 00:33
推 logdog :應該不至於會合吧 06/24 00:34
推 logdog :對岸說中心冷雲蓋形成... 06/24 00:45
推 typhoonnat :看起來 似乎是ccc沒錯... 06/24 00:47
推 jeffkent :行成會怎樣 06/24 00:50
推 logdog :熱帶氣旋的強度於未來12至24小時內停止發展或遲緩 06/24 00:51
→ logdog :發展 06/24 00:52
推 reverence :JTWC第九報預報穿越西部平原北上 =.= 06/24 03:20
推 SkyMirage :喔29澎湖加一 06/24 03:32
推 reverence :依照JTWC第九報的話 應該是27日傍晚對西部衝擊最烈.. 06/24 04:04
※ 編輯: navarra 來自: 128.120.178.202 (06/24 06:21) 推 tytony :南海北部的SST有點低 大約25~26度而已 06/24 06:47
推 logdog :副高西伸不夠 還稍微東退一點 轉向機會不小... 06/24 07:44
推 tytony :北邊先後有西風槽(目前) 和短波槽(週五)會通過~~ 06/24 08:54
推 tcytc :整個環境讓南卡應該會很短命吧...慘 06/24 09:19
→ tcytc :還沒到台灣應該早就是TD或是散掉了... 06/24 09:21
推 youngscott :tcy你為什麼一直唱衰阿!?說風切完又說海溫.. 06/24 09:29
推 tcytc :SST是tytony大提的喔,不過也的確是真的啊.. 06/24 09:33
→ tcytc :風切大、SST無法加持,組織又差,一整個比蓮花還囧 06/24 09:35
→ tcytc :其實你去看一下他的渦度也可以知道真的不優 06/24 09:36
推 youngscott :卡大沒說他會衰成這樣.. XD 06/24 09:47
→ tytony :我也沒說看衰喔XDD 像是輻合輻散條件就很不錯 06/24 10:00
→ tytony :渦度相較登陸前是有些減弱 旦進入南海後應會重整 06/24 10:01
→ seeback :沒有西南尾的加持,颱風強度大概就只有輕度而已 06/24 10:16
推 logdog :組織沒有被明顯破壞喔 SST對熱帶風暴來說是OK的 06/24 18:59
→ logdog :風切雖大 對也有再減弱一些 南卡不是完全不能對抗 06/24 19:00
→ logdog :看好STS至TY CAT.1 06/24 19:00
推 logdog :不看好不到台灣就散掉... 06/24 19:02
推 rnw :不~~我週末要去看 變形金剛 耶~~ 06/24 23:25
Tags:
颱風
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