蘭恩形成了 - 颱風討論
By Charlie
at 2017-10-16T07:24
at 2017-10-16T07:24
Table of Contents
※ 引述《businessmen (返無‧歸一)》之銘言：
: 中央氣象局已經正式發佈蘭恩形成，目前也是預測會遠方北轉，這幾天就再觀察看看吧（
: 畢竟有泰利的前例），另外，卡努颱風越走越偏南，呈現伸卡球路線，應該不會從越南繞
: 一圈又從東北方向拐過來吧～
補上連結: JMA: http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/17215.html
CWB: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?
---
另外，目前各國預報路徑如下:
CWB: https://i.imgur.com/WGvNsdY.png
JMA: https://i.imgur.com/u3W4rZ9.png
JTWC: https://i.imgur.com/Nhi8Leb.png
---
機構系集 (10/15 1200Z):
ECMWF: https://i.imgur.com/1M5NTnC.png
NCEP GEFS: https://i.imgur.com/4bjMTFt.png
機構誤差圈大，但是這幾天系集有向東調整的趨勢
往西靠近台灣附近的成員數也減少
由於本周槽線較活躍，蘭恩較容易突破高壓北轉(高壓可能就自己斷開了)
槽線也可能可以提供較好的高層輻散
另外再加上其他不錯的環境條件
對於蘭恩的強度發展可以期待~
不過秋天颱風變化大，大氣系統配置複雜
還是需要留意個兩三天
等颱風開始正式北轉大概就大勢底定了
--
: 中央氣象局已經正式發佈蘭恩形成，目前也是預測會遠方北轉，這幾天就再觀察看看吧（
: 畢竟有泰利的前例），另外，卡努颱風越走越偏南，呈現伸卡球路線，應該不會從越南繞
: 一圈又從東北方向拐過來吧～
補上連結: JMA: http://www.jma.go.jp/jp/typh/17215.html
CWB: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7/prevent/typhoon/ty.htm?
---
另外，目前各國預報路徑如下:
CWB: https://i.imgur.com/WGvNsdY.png
JMA: https://i.imgur.com/u3W4rZ9.png
JTWC: https://i.imgur.com/Nhi8Leb.png
---
機構系集 (10/15 1200Z):
ECMWF: https://i.imgur.com/1M5NTnC.png
NCEP GEFS: https://i.imgur.com/4bjMTFt.png
機構誤差圈大，但是這幾天系集有向東調整的趨勢
往西靠近台灣附近的成員數也減少
由於本周槽線較活躍，蘭恩較容易突破高壓北轉(高壓可能就自己斷開了)
槽線也可能可以提供較好的高層輻散
另外再加上其他不錯的環境條件
對於蘭恩的強度發展可以期待~
不過秋天颱風變化大，大氣系統配置複雜
還是需要留意個兩三天
等颱風開始正式北轉大概就大勢底定了
--
Tags:
颱風
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