這幾天的預報情況 - 颱風討論

By Charlotte
at 2014-04-01T06:59
at 2014-04-01T06:59
Table of Contents
昨晚沒有上線,一大早才看到昨晚的討論串文字,
既然有板友有意見,我覺得有必要說明一下,
首先必須要說明的是,天氣預報的"基調"是針對"綜觀尺度系統"的移動變化做出預估,
也就是針對鋒面、冷高壓或是颱風之類很明確而且範圍很大的系統做未來演變預測,
在這些大系統底下有其他存在時間短、影響範圍小、移動距離有限的中小尺度系統,
比如說這兩天鋒面前緣發展的對流胞雲團,
這些中小尺度系統出現的成因可能是來自相關的大系統,
但是其運動或是成長衰弱卻不見得跟著大系統一起同進退,
因此對於這些小東西大多只能做很短時間的即時預測,而且也不見得就會正確,
因為它只存在很短的幾個小時或十幾個小時,成長減弱的變動很快,
週日(30日)的鋒面系統本身其實是在週六(29日)就已經在逐漸靠近,
並且在週六傍晚左右在中北部上空激發出對流系統,帶來一陣大雷雨的現象,
降雨回波在短短2小時內從無到有,而且很有組織性,
這是鋒面系統本身嗎? 其實並不是,而是鋒前的中小尺度對流,
鋒面系統本身仍然是如預期的在週日清晨4~5點左右才到達,
但是當時鋒面正在減弱斷裂的過程,所以反而沒有引發明顯的天氣現象,
這個減弱斷裂的趨勢我在週六追加的文章中有提到,
而且也說明了因為這樣的關係,週日的降雨"反而是"逐漸會趨緩,
當然最後鋒面斷得乾乾淨淨,比預期還要俐落,
週日的天氣也就更好,降雨不是漸趨緩,而是直接無雨放晴,
北台灣的風勢很大,表示鋒後的冷高壓空氣明顯往南吹下來,
空氣偏乾加上已經沒有鋒面系統的存在,所以天氣比預估的還要更好,
鋒面斷裂後在華南留下的滯留鋒在週日晚間開始緩慢東移,
鋒面前方以及鋒面帶上對流發展相當的旺盛,
不論是廣東或是香港都受到嚴重的雨災襲擊,
雖然鋒面本身移動緩慢,但是這些中小尺度系統已經迫不及待的東移靠近台灣,
所以我在週日下午再發文章請大家注意因為鋒面接近可能造成的天氣變化,
後來最前面的中小尺度對流系統在週一(31日)凌晨1~2時之間陸續抵達,
也引發了從北到南的雨勢,有打雷有大雨有強風,高雄還觀測到10~11級強陣風,
這波鋒前對流在天亮後向東移開,而且很快的減弱消散掉了,
這時鋒面還在對岸的陸地上持續緩慢東移,而且又是新一輪的強對流在鋒前集結爆發,
對流系統之間的空檔讓週一上午出現了雨停的情況,
眼看著後面的鋒前強對流(颮線)正在往東移出,
所以我在週一近中午再度發文提醒大家注意,
同時因為對流系統消長變化的速度很快,
文章中也講到對流東移過程中有減弱但也可能有新系統再生長的可能性,
加上鋒面本身持續在東移靠近,照預測會在週一晚間到週二(1日)上午間通過,
所以我就把可能出現大雨的時間點押在週一下半天到週二上半天之間,
結果是這一條颮線東移出來的過程中,
北段的部分越來越減弱,所以中北部地區只遇到減弱中的雨帶通過,降雨有限甚至無雨,
南段的部分則是對流旺盛,有規模較小的新颮線系統生長出現,
並且攻進南部地區,帶來大雨、強風、甚至局部的冰雹,
緩慢東移的鋒面系統則是在昨天深夜逐漸抵達,並且繼續通過台灣上空,
北部地區沿著雪山山脈有層狀降雨回波發展,雨勢不大,但也滴滴答答了整晚,
中部以南地區則因為鋒前持續有不穩定的對流系統發展,
昨天深夜到目前都還是斷續有較大的降雨出現,
現在鋒面正在逐漸離開的過程,雲圖上可以看到琉球一帶有低壓波動雲系,
鋒面往西南延伸拉到台灣南部,尾端在台灣南部上空的雲層比較明顯,
預估鋒面還是如預期的在上午以後會進一步脫離台灣向東移動,
然後進入系統的空檔,降雨機會降低,但也不是完全就好轉,
低壓波動西側帶來了東北風,迎風面地區仍有地形降雨的機會,
中南部雲層也還是偏多,山區也還是有點局部性的降雨,
再下一波的鋒面已經在華南上空醞釀建立,
預估跟鋒面相關的雲系在明天中午過後會再靠近過來,新一輪的天氣變化再度開始,
也許這樣的細節說明並不能讓有意見的板友接受,
但是我還是要把這些東西講一次,特別是對於中小尺度系統快速變化的無奈,
最後還是希望大家平心靜氣的討論,維持版上的和諧氣氛,
對於預報結果有任何疑問都歡迎提出,
能夠解答或解釋的部分我會盡力,
再次感謝大家(鞠躬)!!
--
既然有板友有意見,我覺得有必要說明一下,
首先必須要說明的是,天氣預報的"基調"是針對"綜觀尺度系統"的移動變化做出預估,
也就是針對鋒面、冷高壓或是颱風之類很明確而且範圍很大的系統做未來演變預測,
在這些大系統底下有其他存在時間短、影響範圍小、移動距離有限的中小尺度系統,
比如說這兩天鋒面前緣發展的對流胞雲團,
這些中小尺度系統出現的成因可能是來自相關的大系統,
但是其運動或是成長衰弱卻不見得跟著大系統一起同進退,
因此對於這些小東西大多只能做很短時間的即時預測,而且也不見得就會正確,
因為它只存在很短的幾個小時或十幾個小時,成長減弱的變動很快,
週日(30日)的鋒面系統本身其實是在週六(29日)就已經在逐漸靠近,
並且在週六傍晚左右在中北部上空激發出對流系統,帶來一陣大雷雨的現象,
降雨回波在短短2小時內從無到有,而且很有組織性,
這是鋒面系統本身嗎? 其實並不是,而是鋒前的中小尺度對流,
鋒面系統本身仍然是如預期的在週日清晨4~5點左右才到達,
但是當時鋒面正在減弱斷裂的過程,所以反而沒有引發明顯的天氣現象,
這個減弱斷裂的趨勢我在週六追加的文章中有提到,
而且也說明了因為這樣的關係,週日的降雨"反而是"逐漸會趨緩,
當然最後鋒面斷得乾乾淨淨,比預期還要俐落,
週日的天氣也就更好,降雨不是漸趨緩,而是直接無雨放晴,
北台灣的風勢很大,表示鋒後的冷高壓空氣明顯往南吹下來,
空氣偏乾加上已經沒有鋒面系統的存在,所以天氣比預估的還要更好,
鋒面斷裂後在華南留下的滯留鋒在週日晚間開始緩慢東移,
鋒面前方以及鋒面帶上對流發展相當的旺盛,
不論是廣東或是香港都受到嚴重的雨災襲擊,
雖然鋒面本身移動緩慢,但是這些中小尺度系統已經迫不及待的東移靠近台灣,
所以我在週日下午再發文章請大家注意因為鋒面接近可能造成的天氣變化,
後來最前面的中小尺度對流系統在週一(31日)凌晨1~2時之間陸續抵達,
也引發了從北到南的雨勢,有打雷有大雨有強風,高雄還觀測到10~11級強陣風,
這波鋒前對流在天亮後向東移開,而且很快的減弱消散掉了,
這時鋒面還在對岸的陸地上持續緩慢東移,而且又是新一輪的強對流在鋒前集結爆發,
對流系統之間的空檔讓週一上午出現了雨停的情況,
眼看著後面的鋒前強對流(颮線)正在往東移出,
所以我在週一近中午再度發文提醒大家注意,
同時因為對流系統消長變化的速度很快,
文章中也講到對流東移過程中有減弱但也可能有新系統再生長的可能性,
加上鋒面本身持續在東移靠近,照預測會在週一晚間到週二(1日)上午間通過,
所以我就把可能出現大雨的時間點押在週一下半天到週二上半天之間,
結果是這一條颮線東移出來的過程中,
北段的部分越來越減弱,所以中北部地區只遇到減弱中的雨帶通過,降雨有限甚至無雨,
南段的部分則是對流旺盛,有規模較小的新颮線系統生長出現,
並且攻進南部地區,帶來大雨、強風、甚至局部的冰雹,
緩慢東移的鋒面系統則是在昨天深夜逐漸抵達,並且繼續通過台灣上空,
北部地區沿著雪山山脈有層狀降雨回波發展,雨勢不大,但也滴滴答答了整晚,
中部以南地區則因為鋒前持續有不穩定的對流系統發展,
昨天深夜到目前都還是斷續有較大的降雨出現,
現在鋒面正在逐漸離開的過程,雲圖上可以看到琉球一帶有低壓波動雲系,
鋒面往西南延伸拉到台灣南部,尾端在台灣南部上空的雲層比較明顯,
預估鋒面還是如預期的在上午以後會進一步脫離台灣向東移動,
然後進入系統的空檔,降雨機會降低,但也不是完全就好轉,
低壓波動西側帶來了東北風,迎風面地區仍有地形降雨的機會,
中南部雲層也還是偏多,山區也還是有點局部性的降雨,
再下一波的鋒面已經在華南上空醞釀建立,
預估跟鋒面相關的雲系在明天中午過後會再靠近過來,新一輪的天氣變化再度開始,
也許這樣的細節說明並不能讓有意見的板友接受,
但是我還是要把這些東西講一次,特別是對於中小尺度系統快速變化的無奈,
最後還是希望大家平心靜氣的討論,維持版上的和諧氣氛,
對於預報結果有任何疑問都歡迎提出,
能夠解答或解釋的部分我會盡力,
再次感謝大家(鞠躬)!!
--
Tags:
颱風
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