達成西太全年各月成颱之統計機率為何? - 颱風討論

By Charlotte
at 2015-12-11T15:52
at 2015-12-11T15:52
Table of Contents
2015 人類有數據的氣象史上, 首次達成西太全年各月成颱.
雖說是首次達成,
但若依以往累積的颱風記錄數據, (大概是有氣象衛星觀測開始比較準)
是否可粗算每年達成此現象的機率大約為何呢?
目前想到較直接簡單的算法是:
(某月有成颱的總年數/有紀錄的颱風氣象數據總年數) 共12個月彼此相乘
例如
1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月
0.2 x 0.3 x 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.8 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 0.3 x 0.2 = X
類似這樣.
請問實際可以在哪兒撈到這些紀錄嗎?
--
雖說是首次達成,
但若依以往累積的颱風記錄數據, (大概是有氣象衛星觀測開始比較準)
是否可粗算每年達成此現象的機率大約為何呢?
目前想到較直接簡單的算法是:
(某月有成颱的總年數/有紀錄的颱風氣象數據總年數) 共12個月彼此相乘
例如
1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月
0.2 x 0.3 x 0.4 x 0.5 x 0.8 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 1.0 x 0.9 x 0.3 x 0.2 = X
類似這樣.
請問實際可以在哪兒撈到這些紀錄嗎?
--
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颱風
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