颶風艾克 - 第三十二報 - 颱風討論

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WTNT44 KNHC 090235
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PENETRATION OF IKE'S EYE
INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A CLOSED WALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
COLD TOPS DEVELOPING VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO
RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE. SURFACE WINDS AS
HIGH AS 74 KT WERE REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE
AIRCRAFT...BUT THOSE DATA WERE QUESTIONABLE. SINCE THE INNER CORE
APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AS LONG
AS THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. AFTER
IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION. THE
OFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...BUT
WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES.

最新的空軍颶風獵人穿透風眼(資料)指示這裡有封閉的牆,以及衛星影像顯示出
冷雲頂正發展於非常接近中心. 過去幾次飛機定位來中心氣壓有點改變.
現行強度保持於七十節儘管這裡沒有最近的飛航高度風支持此數值.
表面風力從機載儀器SMFR報告七十四節...但這些資料還是不確定的.
自從內核顯示正在發展中...一些增強可能發生只要中心依然在古巴南海岸外海.
艾克移動到墨西哥灣後...全球模型推測一個有益的大尺度高層風分布和寬闊的
反氣旋氣流一起以及一些在熱帶氣旋東邊一部的幅散通道的證據.
官方三到四日的強度預報可能會很保守...但我們有一點技巧在這些時間範圍的強度預報

AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON
THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO...AND
JUST OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE
AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN
3-5 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT. THE GLOBAL MODELS
DEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS...SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS.
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. I AM
FAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM
THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS...WOULD NOT
HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS
A GLOBAL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH
OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE
OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.

稍微往西北晃動之後並且幾乎移動在古巴南海岸陸地...運動移回到西北西或二零九度
/十一節,艾克正粗略地平行移動...以及剛好在海岸的近岸.
路徑模型對艾克在接下來數日的運動非常接近一至. 在三到五日內...指引有點分散.
全球模型在預報周期後期部分描述在灣區海岸北方一個明顯的中對流層脊
GFS和總體意義...沿著NOGAPS...顯現出這脊將會夠強到在九十六到一二零小時
內造成艾克轉西. 一些指引像是HWRF和GFDL指示出一個短波槽從洛磯山脈移動
過來將會侵蝕脊,足夠在周期末端引起更向北轉.
這時候我很偏向更加向西的選擇,自從這應該似乎GFDL和HWRF...這些區域性模型...
和全球模型一樣應該無法掌控中緯度短波槽的演化.
官方路徑預報已從前次第四是和第五日向南移動,但這依然大致地在動態路徑模型的
共識以北

AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE
OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST
POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
(句型有點麻煩請幫忙)


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Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)

Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942


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