颶風艾克 - 第二十八報 - 颱風討論

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WTNT44 KNHC 080300
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

SATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE
LANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA. SATELLITE MICROWAVE
DATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE
LANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED
THAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL
INTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST. SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT
IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
SHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO
ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER
THAN EXPECTED. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE
COMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING....HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.

衛星和古巴的雷達觀測資料顯示艾克在世界時零一四五登陸於CABO LUCRECIA附近
衛星微波資料推測在登陸前一刻有眼牆置換出現但從來自古巴GRAN PIEDRA的雷達
推測和約二十海里的內眼牆當中心通過海岸時依然完整無缺的. SMFR和
從本署飛機的投落送觀測指示出艾克可能在登陸古巴東部前重新增強到一一零~一一五
節. 無論如何... 當中心在古巴大陸移動時減弱是現在可預期的. 官方強度預報現出
比DECAY SHIPS MODEL顯示出的還要少許減弱... 給與中心暴露在水域的機會比
預期還要快. 一但艾克移動進墨西哥灣...綜合暖水域和相當地微弱的垂直風切應該
導致增強... 無論如何關於颶風在三到五日內會增強多大有極大的不確定性



INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING. THE
STEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY
BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE
TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF
CUBA. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD.
HOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A
TURN. SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT
PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.

初始運動為西向或二七零度/十一節. 沒有對路徑預報或FORECAST REASONING做出
明顯的改變. 指導現在和在艾克的北和東北邊的深層脊聯繫,預期在一或二日內造成
路徑逐漸地向西北西彎曲...以及路徑模型完全地良好緊密沿著大部分古巴.


之後在預報期間... 艾克被預料移動到墨西哥灣後...一些動態模型現出一個在脊的弱點
能讓颶風更加北向.然而有幾個模型沒顯示出這樣的弱點或是轉向.
實在太早去說哪個灣區海岸地區將會終於被艾克影響

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Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)

Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942


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