颶風艾克 - 第二十四報 - 颱風討論

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WTNT44 KNHC 070248
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE
WINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE
A FEW HOURS AGO. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE
THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST
TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN
ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE
COAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE
SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER
AND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR. ONCE IKE
MOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD
REGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE
HURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE
A VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

一架空軍偵察機在數小時內返航的最後穿透飛行終測量得九四七毫巴和
一一四節表面風力. 另外一架飛機(灣流五)將會世界時六點確認艾克的周圍.
從那時已來... 衛星影像持續顯示一個明顯的風眼和優秀的幅散.初始強度持續在
一一五節. 環境對額外的增強有益或是至少維持現行強度直到艾克在二十四小時
接近古巴東部. 此外...艾克將會移動在古巴海岸上空或附近約兩天. 這鐵定將會
造成一些減弱. 不過... 只要有小小的向北或向南的預報路徑偏差能讓氣旋核心
在水域,並且預計中的減弱或許將不會發生. 一但艾克離開古巴...以及移動到
開闊的墨西哥灣這可能恢復一些前次強度,就像在官方預報中顯示的.
這很有意思去注意的是HWRF做出艾克再次成為強烈颶風...以及全球模型...
主要為GFS...做出艾克在墨西哥灣成為一個大型颶風.


IKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS
WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE
STILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN
CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE
WILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.
HOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE
WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST
OF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION. UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.

艾克在今日稍早有點躊躇,但他已重新朝向以西南西或二二五度十三節. 在脊往西移動前
颶風依然有二十四到三十六小時的時間... 所以一個正西向路徑是預期到星期一.
到那時...艾克應該開始在古巴西部更加西北西路徑移動... 前往墨西哥灣中部.
大部分的動態模型緊密一塊... 因此我對路徑預報有信心...但假如艾克將會在古巴或是
在水域就不太有自信,自從古巴很長但狹窄. 不管怎樣... 我對五日預報有點信心...
這將會有個大型颶風在墨西哥灣中部.
SINCE MOST OF THE TIMES,官方預報非常接近模型一致性...
這是一個非常良好的選擇. 無異議地... 路徑模型在今晚已向西轉移,並且我已對官方預
報做出同樣的做法



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有沒有人可以找最新的墨西哥灣套流溫度分布圖?


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Geheimer Wetter- und Seeschlüssel der Kriegsmarine
Teil 2
Watterkurzschlüssel (3 Auflage)

Oberkommando de Kriegsmarine Berlin 1942


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